Will likely take ~3 years for that to actually happen... and they want to build it on the site of the skydome, which means they'll have to play elsewhere during that time (and guaranteed to not start till at least end of 2021). Springer has never projected to "age well" (unlike Altuve, Bregman, Correa). But I can see the allure of wanting to play for a young/up-coming team that happens to play closer to where George is from.
Fangraphs updated their international prospects list. It now includes all international prospects regardless of age and expected signing year. Pedro Leon is ranked 14th, but only 6 of the guys ahead of him are part of the class that will sign in January (the other 7 are prospects from the Korean and Japanese leagues), so Leon is their 7th ranked J2 prospect. He still has a 45 grade, which would place him outside their Top 100 but in Houston’s Org top 5. Given his age (22.5) it will be interesting to see where they place him this year and how quickly they think he can get to Houston. I’d imagine a debut in AA with a potential late-season callup would be the best case scenario, with the worst case being a GCL/DSL year followed by a trek starting in High A in 2022. But the Rays regime Click came from was pretty aggressive with some of their international signees so who knows. Oscar Colas (also 22.5) is their 40th ranked international prospect and they gave him a 40 grade, which would place him in the back half of Houston’s Top 30. The inability to trade for additional signing money makes it hard to predict where the late comers will sign. I suspect if Houston were willing to give Colas the entirety of their remaining pool after signing Leon, they’d have a shot, as few other teams likely have much more uncommitted money to offer. Having both Colas (LF/1B) and Leon (RF/CF) in AA to start the year would give the position player side of their farm a big boost. Also, a couple of the guys from the Japanese/Korean leagues may be of interest to the Astros. Ha-Seong Kim profiles as a SS, but he could probably also play CF, and he is the best international player available. Fwiw his power is almost all to LF so I think he would be a great fit in MMP. Song Bum Na has a pretty high offensive ceiling but would be a LF/DH. Mel Rojas Jr is another corner OF candidate who flourished in Japan. Haruki Nishikawa is not on Fangraphs list but was posted today and profiles as a plus CF with potential plus OBP but lack of power. I don’t know Tampa’s history with the Asian leagues but it’s another area to mine for solutions in the OF.
In terms of free agents, Schwarber is the guy I think I want. Highly likely to be an above average bat and still has upside to be a star level bat. Combine him with a plus defensive CF like Marisnick or Almora and I think they’d be good to go.
Here's a quick sort of FanGraphs Depth Chart projections for free agent OFs (>1 WAR): I think JBJ will be slightly better defensively than they project moving him close to ~2 WAR. I'm surprised by Pederson's projection, but he appears better than I recollect despite having a huge drop offensively against LHPs.
Assuming we aren't getting Springer back, go after one of Ozuna/Schwarber for corner outfield spot and sign JBJ to play center. Also sign someone like Pillar, Kike, or even Marisnisk to play a 4th outfield/depth role. Seems like there is some decent value to be had in the OF this season but still want George or Brantley back somehow.
1. Astros seek veteran bullpen help They’ve lost closer Roberto Osuna and veterans Chris Devenski and Brad Peacock, all of whom are free agents and likely won’t be back. The good news for Houston is it appears veteran Joe Smith will return in 2021 after deciding not to play in '20, while several young relievers, led by Enoli Paredes and Blake Taylor, who emerged in the coronavirus-shortened season will be back as well. The Astros’ bullpen will also return Ryan Pressly, who slid into the closer’s role after Osuna got hurt, and lefty Brooks Raley, who was re-signed. Still, Houston needs veteran bullpen help and has no shortage of options available. Of the 59 players who were non-tendered Wednesday, 23 were right-handed relief pitchers. More options means more deals to be had. Among the newly minted free agents is Archie Bradley, who was non-tendered by the Reds just three months after Cincinnati traded for him. He’s been one of the more consistent relievers in the National League in the past four seasons. Other intriguing relievers who hit the market Wednesday are Ryan Tepera, Hansel Robles, Matt Andriese and Matt Wisler. General manager James Click’s shopping list has gotten longer. Of course, there’s reason to believe the Astros are seeking a closer as their big move in the bullpen. That would allow them to keep Pressly in the setup role in which he’s excelled previously. Liam Hendriks, Alex Colomé and Trevor Rosenthal are at the top end of the free-agent closer’s market, and any of them would really solidify Houston’s bullpen. The Astros can definitely contend in the American League again in 2021, and it starts with a lockdown bullpen. 2. Who will man Houston's outfield in 2021? I've resigned myself to the fact outfielder George Springer won’t return to the Astros, which is no big revelation at this point. The Mets have money to spend and a need in center field. The Blue Jays are an intriguing young team that also has money and a need. It would be easy to say Springer would like to get away from Houston and the fallout of the sign-stealing scandal and play closer to where he grew up in the northeast, but Springer has never actually said either of those things. For all we know, Springer’s preference may be to return to Houston, but money will rule the day and the Mets have more to spend than the Astros. That being said, it wouldn’t be the end of the world if Houston re-signed Michael Brantley and found a replacement for Springer via free agency or trade. But no matter who the Astros decide to play center field next year -- if it’s not Springer -- it would be a step down from what Springer brings to the table. The problem with re-signing Brantley and not Springer is the need for a center fielder would remain. Keeping Springer with Kyle Tucker playing one of the corners would give the Astros more options in finding another corner outfielder. Yes, Jackie Bradley Jr. is available as an option in center, but there are a lot more corner outfielders available, with Kyle Schwarber, Adam Duvall and Nomar Mazara hitting the market Wednesday after they were non-tendered.
I’d be ecstatic if we landed any of Schwarber (IU alum here), Brantley, Dahl, or Duvall. I know all rationale points towards Crane not spending big this off-season, but I’m still holding out a modicum of hope that he brings Springer back. I know the writing on the wall is that he’s gone...I don’t know. There’s a wild variance in the market between CF and corner OF. I would hope Crane wants to win more now than ever, and signing George, even if it means Correa is un-signable (he may be regardless) may be the move.
It is believed Jackie Bradley Jr. will be a man in demand this offseason. The Astros are seemingly making the outfielder a priority. The free-spending Mets and Blue Jays appear to have interest in Bradley Jr. And the Red Sox have reached out to their longtime centerfielder. But, according to Bradley Jr., no announcements regarding his next landing spot are expected anytime soon. https://www.radio.com/weei/sports/red-sox/jackie-bradley-jr-offers-update-on-his-free-agency
Final wish list now that we have the complete list of free agents: SS Ha-Seong Kim $45M/6yrs OF Kyle Schwarber $13M/2yr C Jason Castro $10M/2yr OF Cameron Maybin $2M/1yr SP Garrett Richards $21M/2yr RP Archie Bradley $10M/2yr Trade: Luis Garcia, Bryan Abreu, JA Rivera, and Frances Martes to Baltimore for SS Gunnar Henderson and Competitive Balance draft pick International Amateur Signing: OF Pedro Leon Opening Day Roster: 3B Bregman 2B Altuve DH Alvarez SS Correa RF Tucker LF Schwarber 1B Gurriel CF Kim C Maldonado Bench: Diaz, Castro, Maybin, Straw Rotation: Greinke, Valdez, Richards, McCullers, Urquidy Bullpen: Javier, Pruitt, Taylor, Raley, Smith, Paredes, Bradley, Pressly Optioned: Stubbs, Toro, McCormick, Jones, Nova, Whitley, Solomon, Solis, Scrubb, Rodriguez, Perez, Ivey, Castellanos, Bielak 60 day DL: Verlander, James Top 10 prospects: Whitley, Kim, Leon, Henderson, Pena, Nova, Lee, Brown, Barber, Santos
https://www.mlb.com/news/dj-lemahieu-rumors DJ LeMahieu's agent wants 5 years, $100 million. LeMahieu is one year older than Springer, plays a less challenging defensive position ... but for the last two years LeMahieu and Springer posted WAR in the same neighborhood. With that said, what is a realistic contract (ie no home team discount) for Springer? 6 years, $150 million?
CF and 2B are about the same. I think Springer gets about $150M. LeMahieu's problem is that he hits a lot of homers to NYC's short porch in RF making teams other than the Yankees skeptical he can produce as well in their home park.
A 45 FV for Leon seems a little disappointing, particularly given his age, no? Maybe the hype I’ve seen about him on Twitter and elsewhere wasn’t very realistic.
I think Springer will sign for 5/125. I think if he were a FA last offseason, he would've been looking at 5 or 6 years in the 150-175mil range. We really screwed him with the service manipulation, and of course entering a year later during a pandemic at 31 and with significant injury history is not ideal. If I had to bet, TOR is offering around 4/100, seeing if he will bite with the market's uncertainty, but he's holding out that NYM et al will pony up more. If 5/125 would get it done, I really hope Crane would match that.
I dunno, a nice, lefty stroke with pop plays pretty well at MMP too. Granted, it isn't Crawford Box inviting, but lefties can certainly do damage here as well.
I don't see Kim signing to play CF. Even if the Astros say it is for one year until Correa leaves I don't see it as being very likely. I don't believe the Astros spend 5 million (more than Maldonado is making) for a backup catcher. I don't like spending 11 million per year on Garrett Richards. I'd rather gamble on Urena or even Rodon for less money. We know we will need innings with McCullers and guys like Urquidy, Framber, and possibly Javier in the rotation. We have no evidence that any of them can go 150 plus innings. Quintana could also be a possiblity because he has a history of throwing a lot of innings, and maybe Strom could resurect his career. Middleton could also be an interesting arm for Strom to work wtih out of the pen on a minor league deal or something. Maybin for depth is fine but not that exciting. I wonder what Dahl, Almora, and Pillar will cost? If we are trading Abreu, Garcia, etc I would prefer to target a starter like Sonny Gray. Why sign Kim and trade for a SS prospect? If you are signing Kim it is because Correa is going bye bye... not to be the long term answer in CF. My ideal offseason would be signing Springer for CF and then signing either Schwarber, Rosario, or Dahl for LF. I'm assuming Springer and Brantley would be too much money for the Astros. Then sign a competent late innig reliever. Anyone from a list of Archie Bradley, Hendriks, Rosenthal, Treinen, Colome, or Yates would be fine with me. I suspect though the Astros go in a lower tier of relievers and look at likes like Jefress, Kela, etc.... Then adding a backup catcher and finding value in the starting pitching market.
