[Shams Bomb] Rockets and Wizards discussed a Westbrook/Wall deal

I doubt there is any surprise moves.

 

Tilman sells the team

 

can anyone give us non subscribers a summary?

 

Cliff notes anyone?

 

Fred Katz: Hey, Kelly. Let’s jump right into this and set the stage for whatever we hypothesize is the market for Wall.

Here’s what we know about it:

• The size of Wall’s contract, alone, makes any trade involving him difficult.
• Wall’s trade request becoming public does not exactly give the Wizards any more leverage, something they’d be lacking in trade talks, anyway.

For now, the Wizards aren’t trying to give up any first-rounders or significant young players to incentivize a trade for Westbrook. At the same time, it makes sense why the Rockets wouldn’t want to straight-up swap All-Star for All-Star. Westbrook is the more decorated player, the historically better one and the healthier one. He’s coming off an All-NBA season. Wall hasn’t played in two years and hasn’t looked like the top-tier version of himself in the last three and a half. They’re on identical contracts. Normally, a team like the Wizards would have to give up more value in those situations.

Washington general manager Tommy Sheppard has consistently said that he doesn’t want to hurt the team’s future while trying to improve its present. Circumstances have obviously changed since he made those comments, but I won’t be convinced he’s adjusting that philosophy until I hear otherwise. There are hypothetical Wall trades where the Wizards could justify adding multiple first-round picks because of how much it would help the team’s future roster flexibility. Turn Wall’s three years into an expiring contract, and you can convince yourself that you’re players in 2021.

But that’s clearly not what would happen if the Wizards traded for Westbrook, who has as many seasons remaining on his contract and is owed virtually the same amount of money over that time. And it’s not like Houston is tugging lots of weight here, either. Westbrook demanded a trade, too. His contract might be easier to move than Wall’s (heck, he’s been traded once before), but it’s not so feathery on its own. If the Rockets want to cut ties with Westbrook, the Wizards might be their best hope. The same principle applies in the other direction.

So, Kelly — I’ll break the first rule of journalism and ask you a long-winded, two-part question to start this conversation:

1. What do you think the Rockets’ priorities are in trying to trade Westbrook?
2. How do you think a Wall trade could fit into those priorities?

Kelly Iko: I think Houston is still in win-now mode. The signing of Christian Wood, their top target in the free agent market, only strengthens that viewpoint. So with Houston, if it comes down to actually trading Westbrook, I think they would be seeking equal value with players that can step in and contribute right away as well as draft compensation.

Their stance makes sense. Having given up a boatload of picks to acquire Westbrook in the first place, it’s been no secret that the Rockets would like to replenish some of this stock for future purposes. Attaching picks to players always helps in trade negotiations (unless you’re trying to trade for Jimmy Butler). Houston should be seeking a starting-caliber point guard in the event of a Westbrook trade, as it would allow for more lateral move than a step back (hard to take a significant step forward). When teams like New York and Charlotte came up, I didn’t really see pieces there that the Rockets could look at with confidence and believe would either allow them to still be a contender or at least a strong playoff team.

The Wizards offer an interesting outlet. Financially, it’s a smooth transition but Wall, like you said, hasn’t played in two seasons. If we’re evaluating trades in a vacuum, then a healthy Wall isn’t that much of a drop-off from Westbrook but it’s just unclear how much Wall has lost off the top with the injuries. The Rockets medical and training staff have long been a staple in the NBA in terms of effectiveness and stature, but their hands would be full making sure Wall stays healthy. I’d imagine there might be some load management mixed in with minutes restrictions, but assuming he can keep up, this is far from the worst thing Houston could do to get off Westbrook. Wall’s a bit of a better shooter and might have better chemistry in pick and roll with Wood, although Westbrook’s ability to finish strongly at the rim and get shooters quickly is an underrated strength of his.

 

Katz: The minutes restriction is a reality if he stays in Washington, too, though I can’t imagine Wall is thrilled about it. He’s told me before he wanted to wait until he was fully healthy to come back, believing he could jump into 82 games of 35 minutes a night. Unfortunately, I don’t think there’s any scenario where whichever team employs him would play him in back-to-backs and fail to take precautions when he’s banged up here or there. Even if he’s healthy for all 72 games of this shortened season, he could still miss 15 to 20 of them. And that takes some value off the top of him, as well. Westbrook has had knee issues during his career, but for the most part, he plays every night.

I want to come back to this idea of adding picks into the deal, though, because ultimately, I think whether or not the Wizards and Rockets are able to compromise on that front will be what makes or breaks a deal.

When I roleplay negotiations between Sheppard and Rockets GM Rafael Stone alone in my living room because I have nothing else going on in my life, they go something like this:

Stone tells Sheppard he wants a pick or two included with Wall since, as we discussed, not only is Westbrook the more successful and healthier player, but he has also asked out. He knows the Wizards will want to trade him to avoid an awkward situation when training camp begins next week. This isn’t the length of a normal offseason. They won’t have the usual couple of months to get a deal done if they want to avoid the emotional discomfort of Wall walking into their practice facility. Sheppard (as I get even more into character) responds by firing off some folksy, Texan idiom to use Stone’s logic against him, mentioning the Rockets are in the exact same situation with Westbrook, who has also requested a trade. Why would Houston want to experience the awkwardness any more than Washington?

And so, Kelly, help me out here. If you’re the Rockets, how do you respond to that?

Iko: I think Houston would be more willing to bite the bullet and take the awkwardness because they should still be regarded as a tough out in the Western Conference. Had this been a middling, run-of-the-mill team winning 30-35 games a season, Westbrook’s unhappiness and wishes to play elsewhere would have been a much different situation.

Westbrook is a better, healthier player than Wall relatively speaking. The two-year difference in age is offset by the amount of injuries Wall has had recently, which knocks off some appeal. Westbrook did hurt his quad this past season but he also played the most efficient brand of basketball of his entire career, a level that Wall will likely never reach for as long as he plays. Westbrook is the more valuable player, therefore Stone should be asking for a sweetener. We just don’t know how Wall will look once he comes back for the 2020-21 season. I’ve heard differing opinions on him, some saying he looks as fast as ever and some saying he’s lost a good chunk of his athleticism.

If I’m Stone, I’m telling Sheppard that Westbrook, as crazy at it sounds, might be the easiest, most effective trade you can make with Wall. Most teams will only pay 50-60 cents on the dollar for him, and then you run the real risk of Bradley Beal wanting out as well. In reality, this is a very strange situation where neither team really has the upper hand, which makes these negotiations hard.

For what it’s worth, I had heard prior to the start of free agency that Houston had also asked for Thomas Bryant in any discussion, although it’s unclear how that would work now with Wood on board. There are a lot of moving parts here and the season is just around the corner. Man, this stuff is difficult!

Katz: The Beal angle of this is interesting. For all the talk about his and Wall’s imperfections playing next to each other, there would be some serious irony if the next point guard exacerbated all those clashing tendencies.

Beal came into the league as a shooter who would dart around screens, but as his playmaking and scoring grew, he and Wall fell into my-turn, your-turn habits. They’ve said for the past year that was going to change when the point guard returned for 2020-21. Wall told stories about working on becoming a better off-ball cutter so Beal could command more playmaking responsibilities alongside him. So much for that, huh?

I think Westbrook would make the team better in 2020-21, but I could also see all those issues becoming even more obvious. Westbrook has conceded to other players in moments — Harden some last year, Paul George a bit (especially during the second year they were teammates in Oklahoma City) and, of course, Kevin Durant. He held Carmelo Anthony in high enough esteem to look for him. But ultimately, when he’s on your team, it’s his, as is the offense.

 

I wonder how the two would mesh. In some ways, Beal plays on offense like a guard version of George with the way he curls around screens and can take over as an elite secondary creator or pick-and-roller. For all the grief that pairing got in OKC after two first-round playoff exits in two years, it worked quite nicely in the regular season. They figured out a formula. Beal could enjoy the way Westbrook takes the pressure off him and would certainly appreciate all the 3s he creates. Or he could miss being the definitive focal point of an offense.

What do you make of the would-be fit in Houston? Obviously, there are questions about where Harden might play. Could Wall’s presence change what kind of package the Rockets might seek for their best player?

Iko: Conventional thinking prior to the 2019-20 season didn’t see Westbrook as that great of a fit and the team still won more than 60 percent of their games. Of course Harden’s brilliance has a great deal to do with it, but Westbrook contributed a good amount as well. If Houston could find a way to make it work with Westbrook, they can find a way with Wall. The playoffs told a much different story, but we’ll never know how much Westbrook was affected by COVID so that caveat must be present in concordance with the offensive struggles against the Lakers.

I, for one, would be quite intrigued to see Wall under Stephen Silas and playing with an athletic, skilled big like Wood. Wall improving some of his off-ball actions certainly makes things easier for Harden but ultimately, Wall’s fit with the Rockets is as good as Harden wants it to be. It’s as simple as good players figuring it out together, but Harden certainly has to get better in picking his spots commanding the offense and acting as one of the league’s best off-ball threats. Harden loosening his grip on the offense by maybe 5 percent makes things a lot easier and smoother. But Wall also needs to be a reliable spacer and catch-and-shoot option, two things he hasn’t done that great of a job in his career.

Now, if Wall is a Rocket and Harden still wants out, that might change what Houston seeks. I think getting a more natural shooting guard would help a great deal. At that point, the organization might be imagining a Wall-led team. It would behoove them to shape the offense with him in mind. Having Wall under center makes names like Caris LeVert more palatable, just as it does with Jaylen Brown or any promising young guard you can find on the trade machine. But, it does make the Ben Simmons idea a bit more confusing, unless Houston sees Simmons as a power forward instead of a point guard.

Katz: You’re right that Wall and Simmons would be a little wonky, though they’re both Rich Paul clients, so maybe the duo could help turn Houston into a Klutch destination. And no matter whether the Rockets choose to flip Westbrook for Wall or not, it has to keep the Harden situation in mind. If they trade both — ideally, these moves would complement each other.

But it also feels like Wall-for-Westbrook could go down just because it’s what would make the most sense for both teams.

There are loads of commonalities between Westbrook and Wall. They make the same amount of money over the same number of years. They resemble each other in style. No one plays like Westbrook, but over the last decade, the NBA player who has come the closest is Wall. They’re ball-dominant point guards who rely on high pick-and-rolls with stand-still shooting around them. They thrive in transition. There was a point when they were the first two names anyone would mention when someone asked for the fastest player in the league. They have reckless moments. They’re underrated passers who create 3s with their sheer power and speed. And the similarities don’t end there, because the teams that they are trying to leave are in comparable situations, too.

So, let’s finish this off with one thought: If this trade goes through, I tend to this it’ll be because both sides believe the certainty of executing an adequate deal now is better than the potential of finding a better one later.

The market for Westbrook is a little hotter than the one for Wall, but it’s not like it’s robust. Michael Jordan’s Hornets came up, but they just drafted LaMelo Ball, another dribble-happy point guard, with the third pick, then spent $120 million on Gordon Hayward. Their cap space is gone. The Knicks, the only team with significant cap room right now, remain a possibility and could potentially be one for Wall, as well. But if New York decides against acquiring either, both organizations are stuck. Maybe they both decide that it doesn’t matter whether Wall or Westbrook is better in a vacuum because, given the circumstances, both guys could be best off with a change of scenery. Maybe the Rockets are better off with Wall (and maybe it’d end up being Wall and a protected first-rounder just to grease the deal). As much as it pains Wizards fans, who adore Wall, the reverse is true, too. Washington could for sure be better off with Westbrook.

Stone is a new GM. Sheppard is relatively new, but he’s made trades before. If this goes through, it’ll be the biggest deal either of them has completed. They’re incentivized to compromise.

Do you think they do? Or do you think this falls apart because Houston believes Wall is that much more of a risk than an unhappy Westbrook?

 

Iko: A day ago I was 50/50 on it. I still am, to some degree, with how quickly things are going with next season. But this easily becomes 70/30 or 80/20 if Sheppard agrees to add picks. Houston has said they would prefer to enter the season with both Harden and Westbrook in uniform, but a push from the Wizards side could easily get this done.

I don’t think that Houston believes Wall is a risk. This organization has taken chances on lesser skilled players, not to talk of an All-Star guard. It would send a message to the owner that they still plan on contending and managed to get a (slightly) younger piece.

I think the “allure potential” might get it done. What I mean by this is, let’s say the season starts and by February, Wall looks fantastic and Westbrook doesn’t. There will naturally be some level of regret by Houston for not taking that chance. Because of that, and because of the realistic simplicity of a deal, I think this is more fact than fiction.

 

we’re basically just waiting on the Wizards to add some assets and this thing will be done

 

I think it could be argued that WHATEVER happens now will be a..surprise to many.
There's a whole league out there...with many possible timeframes...and directions.
Chatter has died down, almost too quiet, eh? Not for lack of interest...
Hell, Russ might even stay ....at least for awhile.
And, let's not forget also that a new man is at the helm with the quiet demeanor of an assassin. A different style than Daryl, but still MORE than capable...

 

yeah this is more likely at this point. Training camp opens in less than 2 weeks and the season begins in a month.

 

Thanks for Cliffs Notes @Reeko (Just kidding sir!) Appreciate the info.

I thought I saw Houston also wanting Thomas Bryant from WA in the trade too. Even with Woods signing we could still do this:

Rockets in: Wall/Bryant
WA in: Russ/whatever else to make trade work

WA signed Robin Lopez for they have a starting caliber/backup center in him. Houston front court would be shored up with Woods/Bryant. PJ and Caboclo to backup.

EG could then be traded for a solid backup PG or another wing.

 

I think they should only ask for Wall/Bryant. Even though we have Wood, we could still use another big like Bryant. Can you imagine having them both in the line up together. That would be the ideal trade for the Rockets.

 

Wall and Bryant
For Russ and Tucker works

Then try and find AG a spot and go with it

 

Was thinking about trading Russ and Tucker for Wall and Rui? Wouldn't that be the better upside play? Rui could take over at the 4, Wood at the 5? Bryant seems like a good player but I would take the player with the most upside between Bryant and Rui. If Bryant clashes too much with Wood's style then I would prefer Rui. I think including Tucker would help us get either Bryant or Rui if we wanted them. Would obviously prefer to keep Tucker but it depends on what we think of Bryant or Rui's potential versus Tucker's age and contract extension talks. Obviously this is assuming Wall is as healthy as possible which he looks as explosive as ever playing pickup games but I am sure the whole NBA knows if he is healthy going forward.

 

Haha media busted again.