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KOC: Why Trade Harden Now?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by D-rock, Nov 16, 2020.

  1. D-rock

    D-rock Member

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    Trading Harden before next season would somehow be even more foolish than Bill O’Brien dealing Hopkins last spring. Trading an MVP candidate in the prime of their career almost never goes well—in basketball or any other sport. It would be especially regrettable considering Harden has two more seasons on his contract with a player option for the 2022-23 season. Houston has the time and leverage to hold off on making a deal.

    Since it was reported that Westbrook wants out, the Hornets have emerged as the most likely team to land him. Front office sources tell me Michael Jordan wants the 2016-17 MVP, which is unsurprising and understandable. Westbrook would put eyes on televisions and fans in the seats (once they’re able to safely return). Charlotte would win more games, too. But those same sources add that the Hornets won’t put the no. 3 pick in Wednesday’s draft on the table for Westbrook, so the organization is clearly not overly zealous to make a deal.

    But not including the no. 3 pick isn’t necessarily a dealbreaker. The Hornets have plenty of options to tempt the Rockets. They also have the 32nd pick in Wednesday’s draft—which is loaded with role players, not top talent—as well as all of their future first-round picks, which hold value if the Hornets don’t win as many games as they hope.

    https://www.theringer.com/nba/2020/...ts-may-need-to-trade-james-harden-but-why-now

    CHA: 6'3 Russ Westbrook, 6'6 Danuel House + 15th overall pick (from Magic)
    ORL: 6'3 Eric Gordon, 6'1 Devonte Graham, 6'7 Justin James, 6'10 Jalen McDaniels + 3rd overall pick (from Hornets)
    PHI: 6'4 Buddy Hield, 6'2 Terry Rozier + 32nd overall pick (from Hornets)
    SAC: 6'5 Josh Richardson, 6'11 Cody Zeller + 25th overall pick (from 76ers)
    HOU: Ben Simmons, Aaron Gordon, Matisse Thybulle, Mo Bamba

    https://tradenba.com/trade-machine

    Magic also save 2.5M, 76ers save almost 1M and Rockets save 1.8M.

    Rockets may need to send 2022 FRP to Kings to seal Buddy Hield deal.

    Hornets keep most of their core young players (PJ washington, Miles Bridges, Malik Monk) + House + 15th overall pick to complement Russ.

    Magic receive 3rd overall pick + spacer and shot maker in EGo + long athletic young 3-D players with upside.

    76ers receive 2 more elite shooters to better complement Embiid, Horford, Tobias Harris + 32nd pick.

    6'5 Harden/6'3 McLemore
    6'5 Thybulle (23)/6'5 Nwaba
    6'7 RoCo/6'5 Tucker
    6'8 AG (25)/6'9 Bruno (25) - vet min
    6'10 Simmons (24)/7'0 Bamba (22)

    Next season if Harden still adamant to move then trade him + Tucker to Heat for multiple FRP + Herro, Nunn, Robinson/KZ.
     
  2. dmoneybangbang

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    Counterpoint, trade him now if Philly is willing to deal. We are capped out, first round picked out, and 2 tough contracts to trade in WB+EGO along with a cheap owner. Pull the plug if you can get Ben Simmons plus some picks and deal WB to Charlotte for a few picks plus salary. The shortened 2020 season would be a great year to absorb Batum's final year for example.

    Harden is an all time Rocket great but holding onto him could doom us to something worse. Either way is a gamble but I don't see Harden being happy here anymore... Going to be a real awkward locker room.
     
  3. HoustonCRT

    HoustonCRT Member

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    The writing is on the wall. Harden doesn't want to be here. Don't hold him hostage for a year for no reason. This team isn't going to win.
     
    Marteen and ksny15 like this.
  4. Ramo$e

    Ramo$e Member

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    Players have to learn to honor their contract. They want guaranteed money but don't want to honor it.
     
  5. HorryForThree

    HorryForThree Member

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    There are a few questions here. Is the relationship between Harden and the Rockets salvagable? If not, a disgruntled Harden will be even less lethargic than a motivated one. He will phone it in during practices and create issues which apparently already existed as he was not taken to account.

    The other issue is that with this team, his playing style will not adjust. I liked that Silas said he wants to play Harden and Russ off-ball vs. having them go one-on-one all the time. But will he agree to this? Especially when he's already unhappy?

    If he goes to Brooklyn, he'll be forced to adjust to being a complementary piece to KD, more of a 1b to KD's 1a status. That's probably the case with most destinations, though I think in Philly he'd immediately take on an almost identical role to the one he had here.

    So part of my incentive to look elsewhere with Harden has to take into account 1) does he want to stay and is he receptive to the new staff and working with them seriously? 2) is he open to changing his style of play to be more team-centric and less ball dominant? if both of those answers are no, then you wait for the right haul and ideally try to snatch a #1 pick and young players the way the Pelicans did for AD. That would be my approach at least.
     
    Plowman likes this.
  6. D-rock

    D-rock Member

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    If you read the linked article above, it goes into detail about Harden WANTING to play off ball - described as "beautiful ball" vs. "hero ball".

    But I do agree that for Harden to remain, some moves MUST be made to improve team hence my trade scenario.

    If Russ is retained then Rockets must sign Ibaka or Wood, at the very least.
     
    waytookrzy079 and Ramo$e like this.
  7. D-rock

    D-rock Member

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  8. blahblehblah

    blahblehblah Member

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    Why trade harden now instead of later?

    Because in order to get maximum value, generally the longer the player is under contract, the higher the yield.

    Why did the spurs get so little for kawhi? because he was trade with only 1 year remaining on his contract. The risk of him leaving after a team relinquish a ton of assets to acquire him was real and suppressed his value.

    But what about Davis? Didn't the lakers give up just as much last year as the pelicans demanded a year prior? Yes. But that was an outlier, a result of two crucial mitigating factors. One is LeBron. Two is the lakers being the only team AD wanted to go. LeBrons presence and age basically forced the lakers to make the move and Davis well known desire to go to the lakers mitigated the issue of lack of control.

    If the rockets are going to trade Harden they should imo do so this season.

    Of course not trading harden at all is also a valid option. Basically hoping they can retool the team and their relationship within the next two year. Ala the lakers with kobe... The question then becomes, would they be losing their star for nothing in two years and what can they likely achieve as a team in that span.
     
  9. D-rock

    D-rock Member

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    Harden's value will not go down next season, it likely goes up.

    There will be and should be a bidding war for Harden.
     
  10. blahblehblah

    blahblehblah Member

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    Why would hardens value likely be higher next year to another team? He will not only be one year older, he would also be only under contract for 1 year. Kawhi left the raptors after 1 year as well as jimmy butler leaving the sixers. You don't think those teams would rather have had those players under an additional year of control?
     
  11. Bo6

    Bo6 Member

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    I think a Harden trade is fine if you get an absolute kings ransom. If not then just keep and see what you can do maybe you get a championship.
     
  12. D-rock

    D-rock Member

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    Harden leads the NBA in scoring this season it will be his 4th consecutive time joining only Durant in modern era.

    If he averages 30+ then he will be in rarefied air that only MJ has flown.

    Harden value is lower now because of negative PR inferring rightly or wrongly that he wants out so Rockets will be FORCED to trade him.
     
  13. ThatBoyNick

    ThatBoyNick Member

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    This is fundamentally wrong, every day that goes by Harden gets closer to expiration and becomes inherently less valuable. The only way Harden becomes more valuable is if he signs an extension.
     
  14. K-Low_4_Prez

    K-Low_4_Prez Member

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    Trading Russ for expirings would be great imo... Better then getting a couple of mediocre players and be locked into them.
     
    Richie_Rich likes this.
  15. blahblehblah

    blahblehblah Member

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    I don't think other teams care that harden is requesting a trade, in fact if they are probably ecstatic and busy thinking how they can capitalize on this rare opportunity and good luck.

    Also, the rockets aren't forced to do anything imo. They are in the same position as the thunders were with Durant and lakers with kobe. Both teams decided to ride it out, but to differing results. Keeping harden results in being able to employ two more prime years of a top 5ish player. Those two years could either result in a renewed relationship and success or they could be the last year's of partnership. The risk/reward is high either way.
     
  16. dmoneybangbang

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    Moving Harden and WB would save Tillman money which lines up to the current Covid financial hardship. Keep that in mind.
     
    Ramo$e likes this.
  17. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

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  18. DeBeards

    DeBeards Member

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    Sending away a player is much easier than getting rid of a boss…
    What if the beard no long happy to stay in h-town, wht if he is opting for much ez games n ez way to obtain titles just like LBJ designed for himself in past 10 years.
     
  19. cerophilik

    cerophilik Member

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    Only way we trade Harden is if the owner is a dumbass or that we got tons more of what we were asking for Harden. It would probably be the former.
     
    D-rock likes this.
  20. D-rock

    D-rock Member

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    This is the way a good FO/owner takes care of their franchise player's concerns about a commitment to winning.

     

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