You can take this both ways, with covid, without covid. Honestly the overall vote share is going to look almost exactly like 2018 at the congressional district level (or actually marginally to minorly more blue). In 2018 there was no COVID, no depression, no impeachment, no nothing. We let the bullshit electoral college shape our view of how the "electorate" or "the voters" feel. The electorate is not just a bunch of people in the 10 or so swing states!
I blame the handling of the protests. If Dems were clear that people shouldn't be looting outside of just Biden and the legacy media didn't hush up about covid during the unrest etc then I think this is a landslide for Dems. Instead the wishy washy handling invigorated the Trumpers.
Another important point to realize is that the framers actually did intend for LAND to vote more than overall people. The power of democracy in their eyes was the land owners (the go-getter frontier hard workers) who they considered disinterested in politics and more interested in just getting on with the business of their lives. I don’t think the framers really had any idea that THIS is what the country would be doing hundreds of years later to decide Presidential elections.
One thing is for sure is that this country is still very divided and there is going to be more turmoil in this country.
It always made sense it would be close for many reasons. For one thing, most of our Presidential elections are very close... then there was the advantage of incumbency, the economy versus COVID.... the ECollege.
I can not see the mail in ballots making a big difference Do Dems really more likely to mail in than Reps?
Biden looking very good in Nebraska 2 - if so and hold AZ, only needs 2 of 3 midwestern states and it's over.
You won't see the gains in your 401k until you retire. Many busts and booms that can directly affect main street in the meanwhile.
Yes. Also like 1/3 of all votes are mail in... they tend to be younger voters, seniors and people scared of COVID or more technologically sophisticated. Is it enough? We will see.
But.. Do people vote the same way when the stakes are different? I dont know but with my logic and experience people vote differently when it is to decide the actual government and when it is to decide not so crucial posts. They are more likely to protest in municipal or MEP elections but when it comes to the PM they are much less likely to change party lines.
Wi is going to come down to the wire. It looks very close whether Biden can get enough votes in Milwaukee to make up the early Trump advantage.
