Final Prediction: Who do you think will win? (not who you want to win)

Trump might win. There is close to a 0% chance he will win a majority of the vote. He will lose by about 7-8% of the popular vote. It is basically the minority ruling over the majority.

 

Like this:

 

There is little chance Trump wins without court intervention.

 

Like those Trump supporters that went to Barr's house?

You guys would even do it to one of your own

 

I do applaud the OP for having it private -- the data are telling.

I have long been a believer in the "shy Trump voter," even though "shy" is not the right word.

Nate Silver's outfit disputes their actual existence though:
No Good Evidence for 'Shy' Trump Voters in Polling.

To me, 2016 is good enough evidence, and even this thread result shows some evidence. One in 3 people voting on this left-leaning forum are saying Trump will win. That's interesting.

If I could ask someone like @AroundTheWorld, who I believe joins us from Europe and will not be voting: Do you think Trump will win the electoral college outright, showing that most of our polls are very flawed, or by "win" do you mean Trump will somehow retain power as of January 2021?

I would just say this: if you're not in America right now, it might be hard to understand the true misery of people across the spectrum, the devastating job losses and fear. I haven't heard much of the media emphasize this, but the old saw seems important to me: "Are you better off now than you were four years ago?" Unless you are a (real) billionaire, work in a funeral home, operate a militia or run a left-wing fundraising org, you are not better off than you were four years ago.

 

I have no idea.

My only prediction is that there will be almost no voter fraud.

 

(never gets old? maybe, maybe no.)

 

It’s

The framers set up the Constitution so that everyone would be given a fair chance to have their voice represented. If it were just by popular vote, then the population of three or so states would essentially control the country. As we have seen throughout our history (slavery, civil rights etc), majority rule does not always work for the best.

 

Both are possible.

I just think that the polls are often wrong. Just like the first time Trump won, and then with Brexit. It's difficult for us here on this board to grasp, but Trump does have much more support than one would think. And those people wouldn't necessarily say that in polls.

I will say that I think it would be better for the world if Biden wins, but it looks dark either way. And if Biden wins, I hope he continues Trump's course on the Middle East.

 

I predict there will be no decisive winner on Tuesday but early returns could favor Trump given number of mail in ballots for Biden, and Trump/Republicans will do all they can to delay vote counting and undermine the validity of results in closely contested key electoral states. Ultimately, Biden will win and most Trump supporters will maintain the results were fixed, with prompting/encouragement from their leader who will delay conceding the election for an unprecedented period of time.

 

i agree with the first part but dont buy in to your 2nd part.

in fact the 2nd part is a rush limbaugh talking point. curious to hear from you.

overall its interesting who says what and where they are from and how news gets out. in fact where i sit trump voters wont shut the hell up. ive heard the rush bits too but all the vocal karens and rednecks everywhere in your face tells me they arent shy or silent. i find this talking point to be republican gymnastics classic. interesting it would make it to you

 

Your headline said that the predictions shouldn't be based on one's political affiliation.

I just want to know how you figure that Trump wins popular vote if it is not based on your political affiliation. Call it a professional curiosity.

Whether you celebrate or eat a crow is of little consequence in big scheme of things but your way of thinking can help understand what to expect in near future in terms of political environment.

It's your right not to debate it, of course. I just wanted to respond to the multiple question marks in your post.

 

I think the ones who wouldn't tell you are conservative academics and educated middle class people who might find Trump very distasteful, but prefer his economic and foreign policies to those of Biden. But they are smart enough to understand that siding with Trump would not be looked at favorably by most people in their circles.

 

sorry, but this is the hidden price tag for supporting a guy who millions think is human trash...like one of the worst human beings on the planet. Sure, other people think he is ok or even great, and that’s not an invitation to debate who is right. But the fact that roughly half the country believes he is ,an garbage is why trump supporters feel either intimidated or ashamed or both. And the blame for that falls on the shoulders of trump, who dictates the reactions by calculated decisions about what he says and does.

 

Data points to a Biden landslide. Clear as day.

Of course, Trump still has a puncher's chance to win.

 

fair point and i think there are many in republican circles that are scared to say biden because of guys like crazy creepy uncle eddy.
in fact i personally do not post anything biden on my facebook as not to trigger many of the white and crazy republicans i know. talk about opposite of silent... so plenty of shy or scared biden voters..the offset both ways tells me its a two way street on that... but more specifically another way to "rationalize being behind" and a rush limbaugh talking point ..to me you in germany its curious you bring specifically that out. there are certain tells. it shows me the power of rush talking points

 

I don't really know. Trump plays up people's fear. Fear of the Democrats and leftists as he labels them. That is enough to get a lot of votes amongst a very significant minority.

The pathways for Biden to win are more numerous than Trump's pathways.

Biden can pick up a battleground state here and there that were lost by merely thousands of votes in 2016. That would be the difference. Trump has to win every single thing he won before.

On the other hand Trump will be using every bit of voter suppression that he can. That could come into play.

I will say that having courts and voter suppression be the cause of victory is a loss for everyone except for Trump and his family, and that is quite alright with him. That lack of compassion or caring about America is strength for his chances to win.

 

I don't follow Rush Limbaugh. Seems like an unpleasant idiot.