Texas will likely have more than 8 million vote cast and likely more than 100% of the total votes cast in 2016 by Nov 3rd, that is dedication! If Texas turns blue, Trump will cry on TV, I would give it a 25% chance.
If Texas doesn't turn blue this year, I think it will take a step back in 2024. This is the perfect storm - record turnout (Dems have long claimed the problem in Texas is voter apathy more than partisanship), a President who's not super-popular in Texas (relative to his other base states), a Dem who's as non-threatening and moderate as you'll get. If Dems can't win now, it may be a while. I'd say more than 25% chance, but definitely still less than 50%, unfortunately.
I don't think there's a shot Texas will turn blue, but I don't know as much as many here. If we're honest with ourselves, is this a realistic possibility? I'd still guess no. And I agree with your point, but I will counter by saying the mass exodus from California continues to turn the state a darker shade of purple.
The models generally give it about a 20-30% chance, and polls show Biden within 1-4 points for the most part. Bloomberg just decided to throw $10MM at the state today. I agree it seems unlikely, but if Dems get the right storm - high turnout on their end and mediocre turnout by the GOP - it could work. Beto lost by around 2% using that model. However, if the GOP turns out higher to counter Dem turnout, it could be a problem for Dems. It's sort of irrelevant on one hand - if Biden wins Texas, he's already won a number of other states and the election - but it could be symbolically strong, and it also helps downballot races even if he doesn't win. Dems think they have a shot at winning the State House and picking up several seats in Congress as well. And on the really ridiculous longshot value of winning House seats - if this election somehow ends at a 269-269 tie, each state gets one vote based on their congressional representation. I think the forecast there is GOP controlling 26 delegations and Dems controlling 24. Taking the Texas delegation could flip it and turn THAT into a tie (I don't actually know what happens in that scenario).
Texas may turn Blue this time around, but I'm feeling pretty confident Georgia will be a Biden win. I think Georgia is going th Georgia will turn blue this election. Pretty confident about that. Georgia is going the way Colorado and Virginia went -- solid red to blue. If Texas follows suit, this could be a game changer for the democrats. As long as they present a viable candidate, republicans will be shut out of the presidential election, short of having a Barack Obama of the right. Can't believe that dude won freaking Indiana in 2008.
Economy is everything. Obama got punished for jobs midterm despite inheriting a Republican induced 7 yr spending spree capped by a spectacular implosion. Debt load across the board don't look good right now. Silver lining is that people have saved up for the worst, but no one knows how long Rona will strain our hospitals.
You mean trump going to battleground states, spewing the same bullshit rhetoric, and whining about how unfairly he's been treated (and thus showing how weak he is), while bringing attention to all of his failures at handling the coronavirus response, has NOT helped him much? You don't say... #insertniccagememe
trump is an absolute sh*t. A low life who will go down in history as our worst president. Anyone who votes for the prick has the IQ of a squirrel.
Jesus Christ. If my boy DaDakota would say something similar, the trump supporters would jump all over him. But since dear leader says it... Love the double standard, projection, and the constant whining from one side.
This may be true, but I have met a handful of recent California transplants this year, and every one of them are Trump voters who say they came here to “flee the libs.”
I live in Austin, the place that's apparently the first choice of "West Coasters" fleeing the fires etc. for Texas, and those I would run into prior to the Plague tended to be moderate or left of moderate, whatever that's called. Definitely voting Democratic, even if they call themselves Independents (and a lot do). Home prices are going through the roof because of them. They look at real estate here and think they've died and gone to heaven. After selling their high priced house in California, for example, they can buy a much larger place in Austin, closer in (doesn't seem closer in to those who actually live closer in), and bank 6 figures. The one good thing about my being older than I want to be is the cap on most of our property taxes. I'll add that Austin probably has the highest priced real estate of any major city in Texas. Maybe the folks you're talking about move to Dallas. ;-)
Are they coming in at a rate that equals the Hispanic birth rate before 2002? Because I think they growing faster than California millionaires. I'd guess those folks would like healthcare.
I am very confident in a Biden win. People underestimate how many people just don't like trump, the people who weren't politically active going out in droves just to get Trump out of office. Hopefully these people continue to vote in the future after realizing how much damage they did in 2016 by not voting.
