Profar wasn’t my idea... It is someone they have interest in him to play the outfield and centerfield. I have never really liked him personally
The Astros are not going to spend nearly as much as a lot think. They are very likely to lose Springer. The Astros want to keep long term flexibility. They are going to target value and rehabilitation type situations.
Crane has at least demonstrated a willingness to spend and go for it (not the luxury tax savings champion). If they’re going to pass on Springer now and hope to extend the contention window longer — hopefully with an eye towards re-upping Correa, I could go get behind that strategy. We’ve got $57 million tied up in Greinke and Verlander next year that then goes away.. it’s not a terrible idea to see what else you learn on your young pitching, and figure out if you’re going to need to buy an ace in order to contend.
That sucks. They couldn’t have lost that much money. They didn’t have to pay players for 5/8 of the season. And for the 3/8 they paid, they got tv money. The most they could have lost would be ~$50M. Given they were projected to sustain $200M+ payrolls thru their competitive window and they would probably spread any 2020 losses over multiple years, there’s no reason at all that their 2021 payroll should be below $150M. That would give them at least $30M to add this offseason after arbitration raises.
From the tidbits I have gathered or have over heard, Click is someone that will try to get young Astros under control to agree to longer deals. They have even been aggressive with Yordan Alvarez and Valdez about getting them more money up front but with longer team control. He is willing to give short deals for decent amounts to veterans. I know that Crane wants to keep Springer, and I am sure they have a number they are willing to go to, but Click isn't going to be pushing to break the bank to sign him. He is a big part of the Astros success, but so is Correa and Verlander and Greinke will both be gone and need to be replaced. Click is a huge believer in the Bloom train of thought on pitching, they believe in developing #2 type starters, rehabilitating high ceiling pitchers and working on their ability to control the strike zone. This is my own opinion, but my guess is that the Astros offer decent sized 1-2 year deals to veterans through the remainder of the window. I could see them targeting guys like Brantley. Their interest in Jurickson Profar makes sense IF they believe he can be an above average starter for years AND they can get him under multiple years of control. As far as I know, he has never played centerfield but they seem confident that he can. IF they go that route, and he is a 3-4 WAR player then they have a position filled for reasonable costs.
Brantley, Profar, Robbie Ray, a good backup catcher, and Valdez/Alvarez extensions would be an acceptable offseason for me.
This is 100% just my opinion but I suspect that they would be willing to go 4/90 or something in that range. I don't personally see them offering 100 million dollars. Brantley would likely get 15 million with a team option/low buyout on a second season. The Astros can make the Brantley deal easy by offering him the QO of 18 million..... he takes it and he is gone after one year, he seeks out a longer deal elsewhere, the Astros get back one of the draft picks that they lost.
It would be great if he could be that good, but I'd be happy even if he was only a 2+ WAR on a reasonable 1-year deal. Obviously, better and more years would be better. He's shown above average range in left field which should translate into capable range in CF. He's played SS and 3B, though poorly, suggesting his arm strength should be fine in CF or RF. Arm accuracy isn't the best for an IF, but should be fine for an OF.
I think it would be very likely that Brantley would accept a QO. Depending on how tight their budget is they may not want to risk that, even though I think the odds are pretty low that Brantley will be a terrible value at $19M/1yr. But getting 2 draft picks would be huge for Houston.
They aren't going to spend the money because they don't know how many fans will be allowed in the stadium next year or the year after that. They aren't going to blow money based on hoping things get better. Sustaining multiple years of heavy losses is the concern. Not just what they lost this season. Covid hasn't just gone away.
Is Chris Archer a UFA? Would anyone want him to see if Strom can fix him or is he unfixable and he just sucks?
Pirates have an $11M option on him for next season. Will probably be a close call as to whether they pick it up. My guess is they will not because money is tight and he is hurt. So I would expect him to be a free agent. Would be an interesting upside play.
The flipside to that argument is that good investors buy when everyone is fearful. If the Astros *are* willing to invest money, they could get some good deals as all teams deal with the issues you describe.
I'll play fantasy GM for fun: 2021 Astros Gone: Springer ( - $21 million) QO made: Astros add a draft pick Osuna ( - $10 million) Reddick ( - $13 million) Peacock ( - $3.9 million) Devenski ( - 2 million) Resigned: Gurriel -1.7m salary decrease over 2020 Brantley - +$2m - $18 million (3 years - $45m - $18m 2021, $15m 2022, $12m 2023) Free agent added: James McCann - $9m (2 years, $18m) Yasiel Puig - $8m ( 2 years, $15m) Corey Kluber - $7m (1 year $7m with performance incentives and team option for $12m 2022) Blake Treinen - $4.5m (2 years, $9m) Kirby Yates - $5m ( 2 years, 12m) Contract extensions: Work on performance based Verlander contract extension Work on Correa contract extension if Springer is not resigned. The Astros need to keep 3 of Altuve/Bregman/Correa/Springer and 2 of these guys are already locked up long term. This would have $51.6m going out with $35m coming back in for a $16m savings which can be used towards arbitration. A lot of this also depends on if and how much of Verlander's contract is insured.
