Biden leads Trump. So did Hillary Clinton. For Democrats, it’s a worrisome campaign deja vu

People who keep saying it's similar to 2016 are simply ignoring the major underlying trends. The margin within swing states like PA, MI, and WI is closer to 7-8% this time around whereas last time, it was hovering around 3-4%. Also, in the 2-3 weeks leading up to the election, Hillary saw her national lead start to dwindle down to about 4% whereas this time, Biden's 8-9% lead is at the very least holding steady. I'm not saying it's a wrap, but to say this is total deja vu is a little dismissive of the very real Blue Wave that's taking hold all across the country.

 

Pennsylvania voter registrations have ADDED 2.8% to the GOP on a net basis since 2016 (GOP adds less Dem adds). Of course Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016. JP Morgan's quant modeling guru believes that net voter registration adds are one of the best indicators of election day results - far better than polling. Cause for concern for Democrats... and why Obama is headed to Philadelphia this week.

 

Ha!

You think all of those Republicans are voting for Trump.

https://www.salon.com/2020/10/11/pr...n-solidly-red-states-like-kansas-nyt_partner/

 

1. What's Washoe
2. BS they're counting the votes now

 

Remember Reno 911?

 

He's a good man

 

I'm just distrustful of the media. Biden has a great chances but it needs to be a landslide for the covid clown to put down his tiki torch and not burn everything down

 

It's not looking good for Trump right now.....but just wait until he releases the footage from his interview with Leslie Stahl PRIOR TO AIRTIME.

I think this will give him the push he needs to put him over the top in the swing states and ultimately the win the election handily.

 

538: Look at the polls, don’t pay too much attention to early voting, registration and all these other ... noise.

 

That aint happening.

Spoiled fatty took his ball (also Pence's balls) and went home.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...ef0554-132a-11eb-bc10-40b25382f1be_story.html

The person at CBS declined to comment more broadly on what happened during the interview but did confirm that Trump did not do the walk with Pence.

The White House told CBS it was taping the interview for archival purposes only, according to the person at CBS.

During a rally Tuesday in Erie, Pa., in between comments on his crowd sizes and fracking, Trump sneaked in a non sequitur about the interview.

“Oh, and you have to watch what we do to ‘60 Minutes,’ ” Trump said. “You’ll get such a kick out of — you’re going to get a kick out of it. Lesley Stahl is not going to be happy.”

According to a person with knowledge of what happened during the interview, Trump was unhappy that Stahl asked him tough questions regarding his rhetoric about Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) and his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, as well as the size of the crowds at his rallies and his disputes with Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious-disease expert. Stahl also told him during the interview that allegations about Biden’s son Hunter were not verified and that the Obama administration did not spy on the Trump campaign. Many of the questions were about the coronavirus pandemic and his handling of it, said the person, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the interview frankly.

When Trump first walked in, Stahl looked at him and said, “Are you ready for a tough interview?” The president believes “60 Minutes” will cut the interview in an unflattering way and has been talking all afternoon about how to preempt the footage, said the person familiar with the circumstances.

After 45 minutes, Trump looked at staff members and said, “I think we’re done, do you guys agree?”

Stahl believed the walk with Pence was still going forward, but Trump left the room and later complained to aides that Biden would have an easier interview and that “60 Minutes” would “cut it up to make him look bad,” according to an aide.

The person familiar with the interview said that there are no bombshell revelations, but that Trump complained about it all day and wants to take the air out of it by releasing it early.
​

 

If you’re so afraid of everyone else making you look bad.. have you ever considered that you’re just bad?

 

I dont mind biden winning the polls as long as trump wins the electoral college.

 

At this point I think it's all about turnout. I don't think there is much chance of swaying any voters to changes sides anymore. So far what's known about early voting it looks like Democrats are winning based on the registrations. That said in PA, FL and some of the other states Republicans registered many more new voters than Democrats. If those show up on election day that could be an advantage for Trump.

 

Yes... I saw some projection broken out between low and high turnout given early voting so far. The result isn't always as expected. Take Iowa for example. Monmouth University Poll: Trump 48-47 for registered voters, Biden 51-46 for low, Biden 50-47 for high.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_IA_102120/

Biden’s lead is wider in the lower turnout scenario because of the large number of Democratic ballots that have already been cast. Over one-third (37%) of registered voters say they have already returned their ballots. The overwhelming majority of these votes have gone to Biden (71%) rather than Trump (28%). If turnout ends up being low at this point, it would be due mainly to Republican-leaning Election Day voters deciding to stay home.

“Republican campaigns face two challenges here. Not only do they need a bigger GOTV effort on Election Day, but any breaking developments that could help them may be too late. Still, we are looking at a couple of very tight race that could go either way,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

 

I don’t understand registering for a party.

We vote on people.

 

This is good news for Biden. More embarassed Republicans registering so they can vote Trump out of office! Nice!

 

Ain't happening, wanna bet?

DD