The problem is this: According to some source I found online, 52.1% of two-point conversion attempts fail, so we will assume that the chance the two-point conversion would fail is 52.1%. He's using an average of 2 pt conversions historically (over some period of time - not sure what his source was). But the reality is that good offenses succeed more often, and in recent history, 2-pt conversion success has gone up in this newer offensive era. (that's also why analytics now essentially suggests going for 2 all the time early in games because your expected value is more than 1 pt). He varies his probabilities of Tennessee driving to score, but he never varies this probability, and that's a huge problem - because if you increase the success rate of going for 2, it has a double-effect on the Texans winning. First, it increases the odds of the Texans just putting the game away right there. Second, it increases the odds that Tennessee converts the 2 if Houston had just kicked the PAT. Beyond that, his math is perfect and exactly how you'd analyze the problem. But switch his 47.9% success rate of 2-pt conversions to something like 55% or 60% and run all the same math and the odds change to favor going for 2. That said, in any case, he's right that the odds of Houston winning were something like 85%+ in either scenario and the impact of the decision is fairly small.
Rodgers and Aaron Jones are going to wreck the f out of them. I don't even want to watch it. As ticked off as I am about the run defense, (Cunningham, Scarlett, Mercilus) I'm even more ticked off that they couldn't stop McNichols. Henry is one thing, McNichols?
1-6 at the bye great O’Brien should never get a job in the nfl again stay in college where u can control everything and ruin it
You're probably right but 1) play by play shows Henry was 5 for 23 in the 3rd quarter with 1 carry going for 2 yards (1 was for 3). And then the solo run for 90+ in the 4th. Henry is one of the rare bruiser rbs where he gets better as the game goes on, and while the majority of his carries went for <4 yards in the 1st half, those runs get bigger chunks in the 2nd half. 2)his 90 yard run there were 9 defenders in the box, one corner and one safety that pretty much got the only contact on Henry for that run.
I just caught the highlights and can someone explain to me why the hell we took a timeout with 23 seconds left in the 4th and they were driving? It doesnt show what happened on the highlights i just see them starting the next play with a stopped clock. It looks like maybe 23 got hurt on our end and thats why they called the timeout but he was in on the next play so wtf was going on there?
It doesn't matter who is carrying the ball the problem is our DLine getting beat at the point of attack by literally any OLine in the league. Hell we would run for 150 on our own defense and we cant run for ****.
If he made it we would have been up 10 with a 1:53 bc the way the scoring worked there would have been no reasons for the Titans to go for 2 earlier in the game. That means they would have had to get an onside kick and score with 4 seconds. Not technically impossible, but the chances of winning would have been like 99.9999% The defense is atrocious, but clearly you didn't think that one through.
AND just doesn't understand how current NFL defenses are built. You build around the D line. He built around his linebackers. I think Seth Payne was mentioning that BOB underestimated how much DJ Reader contributed to Cunningham and McKinney's success. It's true. Half of our defensive salary is spent on Merciless (who just sucks now, or isn't being used right, or both), Cunningham (who doesn't know how to form tackle, and is getting exposed with the loss of Reader), and McKinney (who is DTS, but he's big, slow, and not that great at football, at least he can tackle, when guys aren't running right by him, and he's injured now anyway). The philosophy was wrong from the beginning. On offense you are spending all your money on RBs, and they aren't that good. The teams with the best RBs drafted them on cheap contracts. If they turn into Derrick Henry or Christian McCaffrey then pay them if you want. It's been said a million times, but here comes the "we didn't need to get rid of DeAndre Hopkins." You can still overpay Cobb or trade a 2nd for Cooks to boost the WR core. You also could have resigned Carlos Hyde or idk, drafted JK Dobbins or Jonathan Taylor. BOB's destruction as a GM will take some time to clean up. At least he signed Deshaun to a team-friendly deal, so there's that. This team isn't nearly as depleted of talent as many people claim, but we do need a good draft in the middle rounds this year, and we need to be frugal with cuts/trades/signings in the offseason. If the defense could make the leap to like 20th in DVOA, and force a few more turnovers, that would be plenty good enough with this offense to win games. Hire Bienemy and let's go. As far as this season, we should be able to compete in every game as long as the offense continues to operate like they have the past two weeks. It hasn't been perfect, but strides have clearly been made. If the defense can clean up some technique and scheme issues (I want to believe in Weaver), we have a chance to win games as the schedule goes into the second half of the season. All you can hope for is a climb back towards 8-8, and sneak into the final playoff spot. But either way there is still reason for optimism, despite how brutal that loss was. The biggest issue we needed to take care of was BOB, and let's be honest with ourselves guys, nobody expected them to pull the plug after 0-4. Hell, some of you clowns on here said he'd get an extension after 0-16 (you know who you are). So try and remember that and keep things in perspective.
Mike Devlin should be fired next. Still the 3rd worst pass pro Oline in football (https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/offensive-line/2020). What is up with Tytus Howard??? That guy is killing me. All the alternating that went on during OBrien era - at least now they are trying for some cohesion, but Kelemete will be the starting LG - Sharpring a bust too?? Fulton is terrible and Martin is average for the 4th highest paid C in the NFL. SMH. Hey I have a novel concept - how about running to the left side? You know the side where you have the best blockers? Might also be a good idea to get David Johnson in space on the edge somehow - seems like he's better at that then banging heads in between the tackles. Cant compound bad talent with poor scheme.
Eric Murray got the wind knocked out of him trying to make a tackle. Texans were forced to use a timeout. He wasn't good in this game or any other game so it really made no difference and Titans were about to stop the clock anyways with a snap and throw into ground.
we didn't lose because of math, we lost because we(defense) suck. the reality of that also sucks but this is a wasted year whether any of us like it or not.
To me, the decision to go for two was not about analytics at all, but about the coach not trusting his defense (and rightly so). However, the problem is, making that decision puts ALL the pressure on the Texans and takes the pressure OFF of the Titans. Why? 1. You're up by 7 already, so we know that if the Texans miss on the 2pt try, the Titans can tie with a regular touchdown and an extra point kick, or even win by going for two. 2. You're up by 7, and you know that if you kick the PAT, you are up by 8 and then the Titans know that not only do they need to score a TD as before, but that they ALSO *MUST* succeed on a 2pt conversion just to be able to tie. Whether the Titans' offense was rolling or not, this puts pressure on the Titans instead of the Texans. 3. You're up by 7, and if you make the 2pt conversion, then you know the game is probably over at that point. However, the odds are against success in this scenario. The odds are in favor of failure in this case, and all the Titans' pressure is therefore on stopping this one play. So, by going for the lower-percentage play, you put all the pressure on the Texans and took a tremendous amount of pressure OFF of the opponent. As soon as I saw them lining up for a 2pt try, I knew exactly how it was going to play out, and it played out exactly the way everyone knew it was going to. Texans fail on the try. Titans march down the field, score a TD, and easily tie the game. Game goes to OT, and Titans win. The only surprise to me was that the Titans didn't just go ahead and go for 2 when they scored with 4 seconds left. Maybe the Titans go ahead and tie the game, even down by 8. But the task would have been harder if they had been down by 8 rather than by 7. BY going for 2, the Texans made the end result easier for the Titans, rather than harder. I know it's just opinion, but no one will ever be able to convince me that it was the right call to go for 2 there.
Called a timeout right before they snapped the ball so we didn’t stop the clock really. Murray went down for a bit but the defense was gassed, it was a good TO IMO.
Funny step by step of Vrabel cheating/"pushing the envelope" to get the clock stopped. The defensive captain's expression and the fake "temper tantrum" on the sideline are hilarious...
My thoughts on this game: 1. I don't feel too bad about the loss. Losing in overtime on the road to an undefeated team hopefully means the team is improving. I had them possibly finishing 8-8 by splitting the season series with the Titans. 2. Offense woke up against a pretty good defense. They played turnover-free football and all the receivers got involved. Deshaun looked like he was having fun. Hopefully this is a trend. 3. The defense has its issues but they finally got some turnovers against an offense that doesn't turn it over as often. Still very inconsistent and run defense is still a problem. Now the negative 4. I'm not usually critical of Deshaun but he absolutely had to make that 2 point conversion. Converting that was critical and he missed it. 5. That missed extra point too. 6. Yet another another slow start. Wonder if anything would have been different if they didn't spot the titans 14 points.
What will it take for them to bring in Eric Reid (and a few ILBs with BMac out and Cunningham being terrible) for a work out? This is insane.
Saw this and was curious. What happens if HOU/opposing team declines the penalty? Does the clock then start running again? And if so, from the the time it stopped immediately or not until the ball is snapped.
How many times has the defense failed us in situations where they could win the game? How were the Titans so easily able to march down the field with under 2 minutes left and score a TD? If you're mad about something, don't be mad at the call. Be mad at the defense for not being dependable. You can't trust that unit. That is why Romeo went for 2 there. The defense has never stepped up and shut a game down for us.