I got ya'll. I was waiting for my 9am update which just hit my inbox Atlantic Daily Briefing Issued: 03:58 AM CDT Wednesday October 07, 2020 Delta Hurricane Delta is located about 75 miles southeast of Cancun and is moving to the west-northwest at 18 mph. Reconnaissance aircraft indicates maximum sustained are near 120 mph. The latest track takes Delta across the far northeast Yucatan as a major hurricane this morning followed by a track into the southern and western Gulf on Thursday. Landfall is forecast over the south-central Louisiana coast near Vermilion Bay Friday night as a category 2 hurricane. Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch Disturbance 53 is located along about 53W or about 570 miles east of the Leeward Islands. Movement is to the west near 5-10 mph. On this track and speed the disturbance should move through the Lesser Antilles on Friday and Saturday with increasing showers and thunderstorms. Even though thunderstorms have increased with this system during the past 24 hours, environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable with increased northerly wind shear by Friday. Before the shear arrives there's a 10 percent chance of tropical development. *********************************************************** Hurricane Delta Advisory 14 Valid: 09:00 AM CDT Wednesday October 07, 2020 9AM update: (Xerobull note: Below is the 3AM update from six hours ago, you can see the track shifted west a bit in the above picture in 6 hours) Current Location: 21.3N, 87.8W Geographic Reference: Over the Northern Yucatan Peninsula Movement: Northwest at 17 mph Max Winds: 105 mph gusting to 125 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 13 out of a possible 50 points (4 size, 9 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 25 out of a possible 50 points (10 size, 15 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 105 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 160 miles Organizational Trend: Weakening Forecast Confidence: Average Estimated Central Pressure: 978 mb Key Points 1. We have nudged the final landfall point to just west of Vermilion Bay, LA. 2. There is still a good bit of uncertainty about Delta's intensity at landfall. Our Forecast The center of Delta is crossing the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula this morning. A reconnaissance plane is currently investigating Delta, but the plane cannot penetrate the center while it is over land. Given that the last reconnaissance mission indicated significant weakening, we think that Delta's winds are below Category 3 intensity. Though Delta has weakened significantly overnight, conditions across the Gulf of Mexico will be favorable for steady strengthening this afternoon through Thursday evening. Delta will likely regain Category 4 strength by tomorrow afternoon. However, once Delta begins turning northward Thursday night, its winds should steadily decrease up until landfall. Our forecast has Delta as a strong Category 2 hurricane at landfall. However, Delta's winds could be up to 20 mph stronger or weaker than we are predicting for landfall. Model guidance has trended a little farther to the west with landfall overnight, generally toward the western side of Vermilion Bay. We are predicting that the center of Delta will move ashore a little to the west of Vermilion Bay in this advisory. In addition, landfall has been moved up to Friday afternoon, as guidance suggests a little faster forward speed today and on Thursday. Finally, model guidance indicates that Delta's wind field will expand on Thursday and Friday prior to landfall. Though Delta won't be an extremely large hurricane at landfall, it will be closer to average-sized with hurricane-force winds extending out to 40 miles east of the center and 30 miles west of the center. Expected Impacts On Land Northern Gulf Coast: There is a risk of widespread, long lasting power outages as well as significant wind damage. Damage from tidal surge is also possible. Inland flooding could also occur due to heavy rainfall. Expected Impacts Offshore Central Gulf of Mexico: The first squalls may reach the deepwater lease areas south of Louisiana by noon on Thursday, though they may not reach the waters offshore southeast Louisiana in the Mississippi Canyon area until Thursday evening. Outer squalls may reach as far west as the Alaminos Canyon and East Breaks leases Thursday afternoon, and the Galveston and High Island leases on Friday.
There's a chance, definitely, landfall moved West in six hours. But pretty slim that Houston will get a direct hit. The cool front that is pushing through the upper US is going to be working against it. Right now I would say we're going to get some wind and rain but nothing to evacuate for. But keep your eyes open.
So that means Pearland/Friendswood area should be fine too. Nothing too major. All these scares are not good for the heart lol
Hurricane and TS Watches issued for coastal SE TX to Mississippi. Cone has shifted further West again
As of now, exactly. This storm has been slowly trending west for several days now. That’s usually not a good sign and the models have been consistent in this with either a weaker trough or faster storm. The NHC now has this making landfall Friday afternoon so it is moving faster than originally forecast. Once it’s off the Yucatán and recon can get in this afternoon it will paint a good picture of what will happened as the models tonight have more data and without taking into account land interaction until landfall along the northern gulf coast. It’s been pretty consistent on Louisiana taking the brunt and that is exactly what the NHC thinks. They are good at their job, contrary to popular belief. I think it will come in pretty close where Laura did. The size of delta may be twice the size of Laura by the time it arrives so high wind gust and rain are not out of the question for SE Texas, especially the further east you go.
Trump will take a Sharpie to the tracking cone and have Delta come straight at Houston: "Where it will (cough cough) wipe out the Democratic votes (cough)."
She's moved a bit more to the West... Hurricane Delta Advisory 15 Valid: 03:00 PM CDT Wednesday October 07, 2020 Current Location: 22.0N, 89.2W Geographic Reference: 550 Miles South of New Orleans, LA Movement: Northwest at 16 mph Max Winds: 80 mph gusting to 100 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 8 out of a possible 50 points (3 size, 5 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 20 out of a possible 50 points (9 size, 11 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 105 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 155 miles Organizational Trend: Steady Forecast Confidence: Average Estimated Central Pressure: 980 mb Key Points 1. We have nudged the final landfall point to west to south of White Lake, LA. 2. There is still a good bit of uncertainty about Delta's intensity at landfall. Our Forecast The center of Delta is now back over the water north of the Yucatan Peninsula, which has allowed a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft to investigate. On its first pass through the center, the plane found max sustained winds of 75 mph to 80 mph and a much higher pressure than prior to landfall. Delta has weakened to a Category 1 hurricane this afternoon. However, conditions in its path are favorable for strengthening over the next 24-36 hours, and it is quite possible that Delta strengthens back to a Category 3 hurricane with max sustained winds of 115 mph by tomorrow evening. Beyond then, Delta will begin encountering increasing wind shear as it moves over the slightly cooler water of the Continental Shelf. This should result in gradual weakening up until landfall Friday afternoon. Delta's winds could be as strong as 100 mph at landfall, though there remains a good deal of uncertainty in the landfall intensity. All dynamic model guidance continues to trend westward with Delta's final landfall on the Louisiana coast. We have adjusted the predicted landfall about 20 miles to the west of our 9 AM advisory Landfall is predicted to be south of White Lake, LA by 3 PM Friday afternoon. Delta will be tracking north-northeastward at over 15 mph when the center crosses the coast. This should prevent any extreme rainfall amounts across south Louisiana. Expected Impacts On Land Northern Gulf Coast: There is a risk of widespread, long lasting power outages as well as significant wind damage within about 50 miles either side of Delta's path across Louisiana. Damage from tidal surge is also possible. Inland flooding could also occur due to heavy rainfall. Expected Impacts Offshore Central Gulf of Mexico: The first squalls may reach the deepwater lease areas south of Louisiana by noon on Thursday, though they may not reach the waters offshore southeast Louisiana in the Mississippi Canyon area until Thursday evening. Outer squalls may reach as far west as the Alaminos Canyon and East Breaks leases Thursday afternoon, and the Galveston and High Island leases on Friday.
Hurricane Delta Advisory 18 Valid: 09:00 AM CDT Thursday October 08, 2020 Current Location: 24.1N, 92.7W Geographic Reference: 405 Miles South of Lafayette, LA Movement: Northwest at 13 mph Max Winds: 105 mph gusting to 125 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 15 out of a possible 50 points (6 size, 9 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 23 out of a possible 50 points (11 size, 12 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 145 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 155 miles Organizational Trend: Increasing Forecast Confidence: Above Average Estimated Central Pressure: 968 mb Key Points 1. Delta is becoming better organized. 2. Landfall is forecast to occur between Lake Charles and Lafayette late tomorrow afternoon or early evening with 105 mph winds. 3. Delta will produce heavy rainfall, destructive winds, and tidal surge impacts to the northern Gulf Coast. Our Forecast Satellite imagery and recent aircraft data indicate that Delta is intensifying. Winds are now 105 mph in the northeast quadrant. In addition, environmental conditions are very favorable for development. Thus, confidence is high that Delta will once again become a category 3 hurricane, possibly as soon as tonight. As Delta approaches the coast, there is likely to be an increase in wind shear. This, along with cooler waters, should cause some weakening to occur. Winds at landfall are expected to be 105 mph. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall. Delta moving is close to the previous forecast track. There has been no change to the forecast reasoning. A turn to the north and then the north-northeast is expected over the next 36 hours as it interacts with an approaching trough. On this track, landfall is expected to occur between Lake Charles and Lafayette late tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow evening. Confidence in the forecast track remains above average. We do not expect landfall will occur in Texas. However, winds of tropical storm force could affect coastal areas of Texas from Galveston northward. In addition to the winds and tidal surges, isolated tornadoes and inland heavy rainfall is also likely. Expected Impacts On Land Northern Gulf Coast: Significant damage from the wind and tidal surge is expected. Long lasting power outages should occur. Inland flooding could also occur due to heavy rainfall. Expected Impacts Offshore Central Gulf of Mexico: Squalls are starting to move into the deepwater lease areas. Outer squalls may reach as far west as the Alaminos Canyon and East Breaks leases this afternoon, and the Galveston and High Island leases early tomorrow morning.