Yeah, that is huge. Just a few miles east would make an enormous difference for millions of us in Houston metro. If we can avoid a west of galveston landfall that would be great. Still not over though. Let's see what the ensembles look like.
Euro model basically splits the difference between its last run and NHC forecast. Waiting to see the ECMWF ensembles to see if the ensembles still show a small chance of Louisiana.
Yeah, that's their job. Keeps the audience, gets the clicks. They're also huge corporate shills: "BLUE BELL IS BACK! NOW (probably) LISTERIA FREE! YUM YUM! PLUS, GO TO GALVESTON AS SOON AS IT RECOVERS!"
Well ****, this shifted West. Hurricane Laura Advisory 25 Valid: 03:00 PM CDT Tuesday August 25, 2020 Current Location: 24.2N, 88.2W Geographic Reference: 520 Miles Southeast of Port Arthur, TX Movement: West-northwest at 15 mph Max Winds: 75 mph gusting to 90 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 8 out of a possible 50 points (3 size, 5 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 18 out of a possible 50 points (6 size, 12 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 150 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 150 miles Organizational Trend: Slowly Becoming Better-Organized Forecast Confidence: Average Estimated Central Pressure: 991 mb Key Points 1. The predicted landfall location has shifted another 20 miles to the west. 2. Laura is, and should remain, a small hurricane compared to past storms like Ike or Rita. 3. Max sustained winds at landfall have been increased to 120 mph. Our Forecast Model guidance with the morning Gulfstream-IV aircraft data did not change significantly from the overnight models. All models are indicating a landfall between Galveston Bay and the Texas/Louisiana border in the early morning hours of Thursday. With model guidance converging on the upper Texas coast, we have adjusted our track about 20 miles to the west of the 9 AM advisory. Satellite imagery early this afternoon indicates that Laura is fighting a bit of wind shear, which has temporarily slowed its strengthening. However, the wind shear is predicted to relax over the next 6-12 hours, allowing for steady strengthening. In fact, most models indicate a period of rapid strengthening late tomorrow night as Laura approaches the upper Texas coast. This is why we are predicting max sustained winds at landfall to be 120 mph. There is still some uncertainty in the landfall intensity. Laura could be a little stronger or weaker than we are forecasting. Once Laura reaches the Texas coast, it is predicted to accelerate northward, so we do not expect any prolonged period of heavy rainfall across southeast Texas or southwest Louisiana. Laura is predicted to be a rather small hurricane at landfall, with hurricane-force winds extending only about 35 miles east of the center at landfall and 25 miles west of the center. This means that the area of severe wind damage will be confined to locations within about 30 miles of the track. In addition to the threat from the wind, there will be a significant threat of flooding, both from the tidal surge as well as from freshwater flooding. Peak tidal surges are likely to be in the 11-15 foot range. Peak rainfall amounts could exceed 15 inches. Specific information regarding the flood threat to your location will be found in your site forecasts. Expected Impacts on Land Northern Gulf Coast: Severe wind and tidal surge damage is expected near where the eye makes landfall. Expect extended power outages within 40 miles either side of the track. Outside of the eyewall, widespread power outages will be possible, along with major coastal flooding. Widespread street flooding could also occur. Expected Impacts Offshore Gulf of Mexico: Squalls could reach the blocks along the upper Texas and central Louisiana coast on Wednesday morning. Improving conditions are expected during the day on Thursday as Laura moves well inland and weakens. Seas could exceed 30 feet near the center.
You guys have me feeling like I am watching a Rockets game while trying to follow this damn hurricane. Thankfully I'm prepared, just need to move some heavy stuff around just incase they become projectiles (some pavers I have stacked up at the corner of my fence).
This guy gets it. The northern position it's currently at wasn't expected to be there until this evening. It's already at 25 north which is much more Northern than predicted this early. If it keeps gaining latitude it could turn more easterly.
Humble ISD cancels school for the week. Been looking forward to having the house back to myself for 5 months now....2 days after it finally happens.....wife and kids are back.... 2020, you're killing me! All kidding aside, still crossing my fingers that this turns out to be another Rita. And not another Ike.
