THey'll have updates later this morning. I tend to believe the European model, and I hope it doesn't keep wobbling toward us. Isn't this thing supposed to curl around the high pressure ridge to our east? Just how far does that thing extend? I guess we'll find out. Funny (not funny), I kept thinking we'd dodged a bullet for three years straight. Not so much this year.
A know a few people from Galveston that are evacuating to Katy where they have family since Katy is still comfortably on the west side of the path.
Yes no question if you live in Katy you should not be evacuating. I’m still trying to figure out why so many people left during Rita. In most cases that aren’t storm surge related, you’re safer in your house.
Latest models keep on drifting west. Still outside chance of hitting Galveston and Houston. Stay safe and don't take any chances with this storm..
The ensemble Euro with a worst case scenario, major hurricane with Galveston and downtown Houston on the east side of landfall.
Hurricane Laura Advisory 24 Valid: 09:00 AM CDT Tuesday August 25, 2020 Current Location: 23.4N, 86.8W Geographic Reference: 620 Miles Southeast of Port Arthur, TX Movement: West-northwest at 17 mph Max Winds: 75 mph gusting to 90 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 9 out of a possible 50 points (4 size, 5 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 19 out of a possible 50 points (8 size, 11 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 150 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 155 miles Organizational Trend: Increasing Forecast Confidence: Average Estimated Central Pressure: 995 mb Key Points 1. The predicted landfall location has shifted to west of Port Arthur, TX. 2. Laura is, and should remain, a small hurricane compared to past storms like Ike or Rita. 3. Max sustained winds at landfall have been increased to 120 mph at landfall. Our Forecast A reconnaissance plane currently investigating Laura has found that Laura is now a hurricane. Overnight model guidance has shifted westward with Laura's landfall. It is looking more likely that Laura will make landfall between Galveston and Port Arthur Texas tomorrow night. Because of this trend, we have adjusted the landfall point to just west of the Beaumont-Port Arthur area. There is a current Gulfstream-IV aircraft flying all around the Gulf of Mexico to sample the atmosphere. The data will be included in this morning's model runs, which will be completed between 11:30am and 1pm Central time. We are going to wait for the new data before making any further track shifts either east or west. In addition to the threat from the wind, there will be a significant threat of flooding, both from the tidal surge as well as from freshwater flooding. Peak tidal surges are likely to be in the 12 to 15 feet range. Peak rainfall amounts could exceed 15 inches. Specific information regarding the flood threat to your location will be found in your site forecasts. Expected Impacts on Land Northern Gulf Coast: Severe wind and tidal surge damage is expected near where the eye makes landfall. Expect extended power outages within 40 miles either side of the track. Outside of the eyewall, widespread power outages will be possible, along with major coastal flooding. Widespread street flooding could also occur. Expected Impacts Offshore Gulf of Mexico: Squalls will reach the lease blocks offshore southeast Louisiana this evening, if at all Squalls could reach the blocks along the upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coast before sunrise on Wednesday. Improving conditions are expected during the day on Thursday as Laura moves well inland and weakens. Seas could exceed 35 feet near the center. Scientific simulation:
Wednesday is going to be a long night. I remember my wife laughing that she and her coworkers were hoping for the hurricane and time off. People won't change. My wife went through Harvey with me but I'm trying to tell her, when that wind is howling outside, be prepared for some major pucker power.
