AOC is prime time She could be completely wrong but at least she’s out there saying something She at least has a position but she’s suppose to promote the Biden ticket But she didn’t . that wasn’t suppose to happen
This might work in Biden’s favour. Trump keeps on referring to Biden Harris ticket as far left. This can be used as evidence to the independent voters that as a matter of fact he is not. Really under cuts one of Trumps strategies.
She’s only Prime Time in the sense that people can’t wait to see what stupid **** she says next. (I just set somebody up, see if they take the bait.)
The media has learned absolutely nothing in 5 years. Nothing. Can Joe Biden please just win the election first before they start the inevitable Cat Fight interparty reality show they are desperate the promote?
It makes more than having a correct policy position to be president, how about the other skills that are lacking? Like foreign policy, ability to build consensus, how to work in a bureaucracy? A POUTUS should be far more than a pusher of policies IMO.
True dat and it makes me wonder if CNN was not behind that outlier of a poll just so they could start talking about how Trump is coming back and the race is tightening.
I've wondered about that and I wouldn't put it beyond them to slant it to create more drama. For that matter all the fundraising request I get all point to the most dire polls. I would still seriously doubt if they've falsified or doctored the polls. As noted I've felt that things would tighten up and the CNN poll while an outlier there are several other polls that do show this race in single digits. It's possible that the sample size and people polled weren't favorable to Biden but it's also just as possible that polls being only a snapshot in time and a partial one at that just happened to show a tighter race than might actually be there.
I think it's also the nature of polls and why polls have a margin of error. Most people saw Biden +4 in that CNN poll and it being within the margin of error, but it could also go the other way as well (Biden +8)...which would be closer to RCP's national average for the race. Problem is, we don't know and won't know until the ballots are counted...it's kind of like looking at betting spreads before sporting events and using those to figure out who's going to win. Anyway, for August, these are all the polls RCP show: The Hill/HarrisX 8/11 - 8/14 2823 RV 1.8 45 39 Biden +6 CNN 8/12 - 8/15 987 RV 4.0 50 46 Biden +4 ABC News/Wash Post 8/12 - 8/15 707 LV -- 54 44 Biden +10 CBS News/YouGov 8/12 - 8/14 2152 LV 2.4 52 42 Biden +10 NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 8/9 - 8/12 900 RV 3.3 50 41 Biden +9 FOX News 8/9 - 8/12 1000 RV 3.0 49 42 Biden +7 Economist/YouGov 8/9 - 8/11 1208 RV 3.6 49 39 Biden +10 The Hill/HarrisX 8/8 - 8/11 2828 RV 1.8 44 40 Biden +4 CNBC/Change Research (D)* 8/7 - 8/9 2143 LV 2.1 50 44 Biden +6 Monmouth* 8/6 - 8/10 785 RV 3.5 51 41 Biden +10 Rasmussen Reports 8/5 - 8/11 2500 LV 2.0 49 43 Biden +6 NPR/PBS/Marist 8/3 - 8/11 1108 RV 3.6 53 42 Biden +11 The Hill/HarrisX 8/2 - 8/5 2850 RV 1.8 43 40 Biden +3 GU Politics/Battleground 8/1 - 8/6 1000 LV 3.1 53 40 Biden +13 Economist/YouGov 8/2 - 8/4 1229 RV 3.3 49 40 Biden +9 538 takes in more polls and has a bigger margin for Biden right now...I want post all of those, but the range is anywhere from Even to Biden +16 for August...which is probably the range that we could expect for the election. My guess is that Biden leads by 7 to 8 points right now as the national averages state...it could grow if things go exceptionally wrong for Trump (second, larger wave hits...especially now that schools are in...economy and unemployment dip back down as more places have to shutdown again...etc), but it could also shrink and become a tight race if everything goes Trump's way from here until election day.
CNN has always had the most egregiously shallow polls. You look at the sample size compared to other polls and it's typically ridiculously uninformative at those levels. CNN more than anyone's wants a horse race and drama to boost their ratings. I rarely watch CNN anymore but of course I tune in for just a minute last night and in the first 30 seconds there's Dana Bash hyping up the "fractures" in the party, and pumping up the AOC vs. Dems storyline for dramatization. I remembered quickly why I don't watch that network anymore. The issue is, the less people like me watch CNN, the more the producers and corporate executives will see the data showing that they need to skew towards a demographic that actually enjoys watching their entertainment political shows more and the programming will get even worse.
The polls have been averaging single digits at about 7% that's not tightening and it seems to be rising. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/ I do believe that the polls from here on out will be the most meaningful so will be looking at the margins.
Or things could get worse with Corona and the polls tighten anyways because of American ignorance & the desensitization of the Covid numbers. Biden was probably always destined to be right back where Hillary was in 2016 with the exception of two things happening: -A shift in the suburbs towards Biden with a women -A much more well funded turnout machine for anyone that looks like a Trump voter Those two things could cancel each other out, but it depends on what happens in the next 30 days. Biden needs to really lock in those suburban voters which is probably why we saw Collin Powell, Cindy McCain, and Kasich the past two days, and Biden really REALLY needs to have boots on the ground working the hell out of Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn, and North Carolina. Biden cannot rely on expansion voters in AZ, GA, TX, etc. and has to turn out every single voter in those battleground states because if we assume the race is tightening back up to Clinton/Trump/2016, he needs to do what Hillary's camp failed to do in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Penn which is what ultimately cost her the election. If we assume the worst, the election will come down to those three states... again. If the Biden campaign also pushes for best case scenario, and things break right with the American electorate swing voters finally souring on Trump for good, it'll be a complete wipe out. Biden's campaign is smart if they assume that the American swing voter electorate will look more like Nov 2016 then July 2020.
In Presidential Election 2020 thread I also just posted the RCP link. I think it's pretty obvious that the race is tightening from what it was a few weeks ago but as you noted there have been some wild swings. My own view of the race is still the same as it was a couple of weeks ago. I think there is about a 30% chance of Trump winning it.
All of this is true and it's why I don't watch CNN it's a drama factory, I am glad AOC called out NBC for doing the same thing. I think the real reason Trump won was the media manufacturing drama between Sanders and Clinton, reporting on the email story like it was endangering national security and acting like wikileakes where the watergate papers. All of that and giving Trump so much free media exposure its why I laugh when people claim the media is in the bag of the DNC. The media should have a reckoning.
I'll take the bait because why even troll? Why waste your time with insincere things? If you admit to trolling surely that is a suspendable offense.
One of the worst things they do is they CONSTANTLY put on Trump surrogates, and they think they are creating good drama by having the host debate them or strike down their falsehoods. However they are beaten instantly in that debate by force because a Trump surrogate's tactics are not to have a debate, but to talk over you and never let there be a gap in your sentences. It's free media airtime for the Trump message. The Dan Crenshaw thread going on right now speaks to this tactic quite well. I'll stop ranting about CNN now, but yeah they are the worst, and it's laughable when Trumpers try to act as though its a liberal mouthpiece. Again that's another tactic too to try and bully them into more favorable coverage because they know how weak their corporate producers are.
