Yeah, no, they don't look similar at all, most people have noted this repeatedly. I don't need to bother to link you through to the literature but even using that metric alone is absolutely wrong, Biden's lead is consistently bigger, and consistently more durable than Clinton's - this is a matter of mathematical fact. But in general, having an empirical, data driven approach doesn't work that way, cherry picking snapshot datapoints, especially when you don't have to. If you threw a lit cigarette at a campsite in Yosemite national forest after a torrential mudslide, and it didn't burn, four years later, would you think you're probably fine going to the same campsite, and throwing another lit cigarette, from the very same pack? Or would you want to look at a lot of other data to determine if your world model was accurate? C'mon man, nobody's telling you to stop working or worrying or whatever, but your analysis is just bad and you know it here. Haven't severely dipped? In the last 3 months he went from his BEST net disapproval (-5) (march, the "rally round the flag effect) of his entire prsidency, now he's getting close his very WORST rating (-16) - and as you note, things are terrible now and unilkely to get better he probably exceeds his record in a few weeks (-19 or so) You can't really see a "severe dip" in absolute terms because the guy is just so ****ing unpopular, he's not GWB who got up super high in Sept 2001. He's graded on a curve. A bad one.
Are you looking at Clinton over the course of the whole election or June of 2016? Which is interesting considering your argument also relies upon cherry picked snapshot data, the polls as they are now, which pollsters always say are only snapshots and aren't necessarily indicative of where the electorate is or is going. Except that logically you would consider if there was some factor in that same pack of matches, such as that they are defective as to assessing if they could start a fire or not. You've brought up Bayes and Bayesian inferences are something to consider but they are inferences and subjective and are no guarantee that they actually reflect reality. Again I agree that things don't look good for Trump and I hope that y'all are right. I've presented evidence why we need to be careful. You seem very certain about the results of the election but to quote another great philosopher, "It's hard making predictions, especially about the future."
What do you mean "those people"? Sorry couldn't resist considering some other posters jumped down my throat last time I used that term. Suburban voters concerned about crime might hold their nose and vote for Trump if they feel that Biden is soft on crime and Democrats if not out rightly the cause consider them too sympathetic to urban crime and that moves like Defund and Disband are going to make crime worse. Again, this is something that probably won't show up well on polls but if you look at other evidence like gun sales is an indicator of how much concern there is. Also his poll numbers aren't sinking. They are within the range of what they've been his whole term. That should be concerning considering Obama was down to 40% for far less severe issues and GW Bush was down to 25%..
Yes Trump did win a narrow election. That is the whole point. He's not going to win a landslide but it is still very possible he could win narrowly. Yes Trump's average approval rating is worse than any recent President. That said he's not gone lower than any recent President even though things weren't nearly as bad when those Presidents hit their low point. What y'all keep on missing is that that is very significant. A base represents the bottom of your support. This shows that Trump's base is much larger than other Presidents. By definition base is what you build off of and starting at around 40% is a pretty good base to build off of. Especially when you can win with only 46% of the electorate.
The whole election, there is no way to say that Biden's remarkably consistent, growing lead is the same lead she had. Many articles have been written. To date, he leads by more, more often. That's a big deal! That is just flat wrong, we have been over this. I"m looking at the totality of circumstances, and the likelihood of future circumstances. You are the one who is taking snapshots and saying "SEE JUST LIKE HILLARY" - it's not, for obvious reasons. OK, so consider them, economic collapse, widespread civil unrest, and ranging pandemic disaster due to the President's consistent negligence! That's what I'm saying! They are reality. I guess i can "be careful" - I don't even know what that entails frankly, I've been stuck in my house for 14 weeks. My confidence in an expected result can't really affect that result unless I have some unknown magical powers.
538 addressed this the other day and Biden’s lead is actually quite a bit larger than Hillary’s was at this point in 2016. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-bidens-polling-lead-is-different-from-clintons-in-2016/
Here is an article from June 2016 that says that Clinton had a 12% lead over Trump. https://www.cnn.com/2016/06/14/politics/poll-hillary-clinton-leads-donald-trump/index.html Now accepting what 538 is saying the difference between Clinton and Biden is 1.8% points which isn't that much larger. Also from the same 538 article it says this: " However, the Electoral College looks like it could still give Trump an advantage, just like it did four years ago. It’s hard to see that advantage now because Biden leads in nearly every swing state, but if you look at each state’s polling average relative to the national polling average In other words, Biden’s margin in the state minus his 9.6-point lead nationwide. (the rightmost column in the table below), you get a sense of whether the state is redder or bluer than the country as a whole. As you can see, by this metric, many of these states lean more toward Trump than the country does. That means that, if the overall race tightens, those states could slide into Trump’s column, allowing him to once again win a majority of electoral votes even if Biden wins the national popular vote. Biden is outpolling Trump in most swing states FiveThirtyEight polling averages as of 5:20 p.m. Eastern on June 24, 2020 STATE BIDEN TRUMP MARGIN LEAN RELATIVE TO NATION Colorado 54.6% 36.9% D+17.7 D+8.0 New Mexico 54.5 40.6 D+14.0 D+4.3 Maine 53.5 39.6 D+13.9 D+4.2 Virginia 50.9 39.7 D+11.2 D+1.5 Minnesota 54.3 43.8 D+10.6 D+0.9 National 50.9 41.3 D+9.6 EVEN Michigan 50.6 41.0 D+9.6 R+0.1 Nevada 48.6 39.9 D+8.7 R+0.9 New Hampshire 50.2 42.4 D+7.9 R+1.8 Wisconsin 49.8 42.3 D+7.6 R+2.1 Florida 50.0 42.6 D+7.4 R+2.3 Pennsylvania 49.2 43.6 D+5.6 R+4.0 Arizona 48.1 43.5 D+4.7 R+5.0 Ohio 48.2 45.8 D+2.4 R+7.3 North Carolina 47.1 45.2 D+1.9 R+7.8 Georgia 47.2 45.9 D+1.3 R+8.4 Iowa 45.9 46.0 R+0.1 R+9.8 Texas 46.6 47.1 R+0.5 R+10.1 “Lean relative to nation” is how much more pro-Biden or pro-Trump a state’s polling average is than the national polling average. " I agree the road is going to be harder for Trump to win again but even 538 shows that it is possible and we shouldn't consider this race over.
And those Suburban voters might stay home or vote against Trump because he is stoking the divisiveness. You are cherry picking data points and trends, Gun sales also rose during the 1st term of Obama and he still won. What do you think about Trump having the lowest average out of any of these presidents? What is that an indicator off?
Who is saying it's not possible? Yes his base is larger but his staunch opposition is larger as well and growing his basse it not growing. He won with only 46% of the electorate because a lot of people stayed home in 2016 and he still barley won.
The problem is that while he has a bottom of 39%, his ceiling isn't above parity. Meaning even during the best of times he struggles to crack 50%. So while agree that this very well may be his "ebb", you have to wonder where his ceiling is and I don't see it being higher than 2016. His range is losing from in a landslide to squeaking out a victory. in 2016 a lot of that had to do with Comey. Can the same thing happen with Biden? It's certainly possible, but I would say it's a lot less likely this time around. It's not in the bag, and it's not the 4th quarter, but Trump has his work cut out for him to make this a race again. And it's hard to see that people are going to forget what's happening now given the mess we're in.
To the question of who would vote for Trump? Upper middle class white people that do not want black people to feel comfortable in the suburban towns they live in. They have $300-$500K manicured homes in communities with low crime. They associate black people and people from the city as attracting crime. They don’t want their children to date or socialize with black people. People that benefited from the Trump economy. I have heard a lot of small business owners say they really get the economy was doing well under Trump. These same people also fear Biden will raise their taxes to give to the poor. Incredibly wealthy people. This one is obvious. White middle aged men. I have heard a lot of white men say they feel attacked by the feminist and BLM. They feel they have been marginalized and unfairly been singled out. Second Amendment freaks Pro life freaks Evangelical freaks Police and their families
As Pence and Trump double down on their greatness and take a victory lap for their response to covid19 today, let me re-emphasis this: among 65+ in battle states, trump went from a +13 in 2016 election to -6 in June 2019 polls. 19 points swing.
Except you're admitting that you're comparing how Hillary Clinton did over the whole election versus where Biden is standing with 4 months to go. Unless you are actually a time traveler you can't compare the totality of circumstances. We're on a debate site and having a debate. I don't expect you personally to change the course of the election. You represent a certain position though and I'm pointing out the problems with that position.
And has I pointed out to Sam Fisher the argument that the election is essentially over is also cherry picking data considering there still is a lot of time to go and polling at the moment does only represent a snapshot. Also that there are issues that are going to be difficult to poll. As pointed out again Trump's average approval rating is lower but his low points aren't as low as other presidents which shows his base is stronger than other presidents. As you note above there were some strong indicators against Obama winning reelection in 2010 yet he still won. That is more reason to consider evidence that this election isn't as over as people think.
I agree Trump's ceiling certainly isn't high and I don't expect him to crack 50%. He doesn't need to crack 50% to win. As the 538 analysis shows he still has a chance to win the Electoral College based on that while he is losing many of the states in play skew Republican and given the nature of the Electoral College he can still lose more of the popular vote than he did last time and still win.
