Yes this is very true. In November the economy could be booming, a successful treatment for COVID-19 is out and Chauvin is convicted. All of those would very much favor Trump's reelection chances. It could also be that the economy hasn't recovered, there is bad Fall wave of COVID-19, and Murder Hornets are running rampant. There are a lot of things that could change and many of those out of the hands of Trump or Biden.
Agree... there is a "hidden" trump base. Those embarrassed to say they support him, regardless. We saw it here... after his election people that obviously supported and voted for him played the "I didn't vote for him" or "I voted third party". I suspect that plays out again this year... people too embarrassed to admit they support/will vote for him again.
Don't impose your ignorant myopia on us. You myopic Democrats already made the mistake in 2016. Why even talk about polls anymore? As if Trump doesn't have supporters armed at state houses over wearing masks.
77,000 votes in three states decided the last election. Biden is currently polling ahead in those three states. Reclaiming the Blue Wall is the most logical path to victory. You have to win bigger than just eking out a minimal 270 at 1 AM on election night, but in order to technically win that’s what you need to do. Beyond that, I agree it will be interesting to see where the Biden campaign focuses their strategy. I hope they make aggressive plays for Arizona and North Carolina. Arizona is another potential (dare I say, likely) reclaim from 2016 with a key senate race. North Carolina is the same story, plus Gov. Cooper is up for re-election. It’s nice to dream about Texas, but I’m not holding my breath.
The polling in Texas could force a change in the financial aspects of the race. Texas being in play likely adds to the donor list for Biden while it forces the trumpybear campaign to spend money here they likely didn't anticipate. Texas is not a cheap media market already and it's so spread out that you can't just run in any one market. It's going to force him to spend time here that should be spent in the more traditional swing states. Or, they could take the approach that the polling is wrong and ignore Texas. Either way, this is a good thing for Biden.
If texas turns blue Trump will have finally followed through with one of his campaign promises: Drain the swamp!
I have a few running bets with some good guys in here. Clutch is gonna be happy with the windfall he gets after the election either ways. You Dems are making the same mistake like in 2016. For a starter, how about putting out some decent candidates for a change. Biden is clearly not fit for office all jokes aside, and it’s only going to get worse in November when he has to face Trump on that big stage. We all know how polls work judging from 2016, to feel up or down from them is madness, it’s like watching the Dow Jones everyday. A better indicator is voter turnout and voter enthusiasm. You know lots of voters on the Dem side are young, and turnouts for young people historically been piss-poor. I believe voter turnout for Trump will be even more massive than 2016. A lot of Americans like myself are seeing the pledges that he made in 2016 fulfilling despite facing enemies from all angles foreign and domestic. The constant negative drumbeat that you hear coming everyday is a coordinated effort to crush him from day one. Like I’ve said, God is not done with him yet, he has unfinished business.
I'm not sure that Arizona should be included in the "nice to have" list. Mark Kelly is consistently polling +10% above McSally in recent months and he'd be the state's second Democratic senator alongside Kyrsten Sinema. Kelly's strength in that state makes it doable for Biden. Kelly's candidacy is yet another reason why I'm disappointed in Beto O'Rourke. Instead of running for president and making himself forever unelectable statewide in Texas, he could've run against Cornyn and his terrible approval rating while bringing his 2018 base to the polls to also vote for Biden. Kelly shows how a formidable and popular Senate race can benefit the top of the ticket, too.
A warning but Biden isn't going to carry texas as Trump will shore up support - right now Trump is at an ebb.
I don't care if Biden sleeps for four years in the white house and do nothing if he get elected, beating Trump would have been enough.
Arizona isn't quite the same as Texas. 60% of Arizona is in Maricopa County (Phoenix metro). And Arizona has voted to the left of Texas for a while now. The required shift for Arizona is quite a bit smaller than the required shift for Texas. Kelly is a great candidate but Arizona is also a more favorable state for Democrats. Republicans have a much smaller rural base to carry them through and were much more reliant on Phoenix suburbs to win what were already narrower wins. I think Republicans will struggle over the longer term in Arizona as this continues. Arizona also doesn't have gerrymandering (maps are drawn by a non-partisan commission) so Dems are capable of running the table at the state legislative level as well (Dems already have a majority of US Congressional seats in Arizona). Lastly, Arizona just has a more elastic voter base than Texas. Dems have recent history of winning in Arizona before 2018. Two Democrats won statewide in Arizona in 2006 and Dems won a majority of the Congressional delegation in 2012 (before winning again in 2018). A Democrat hasn't won statewide in Texas since 1994. Texas will be a slow grind. Think back to when Republicans finally broke through (when John Tower won his US Senate seat). It took years of attempts by Republicans but over time Democrats kept running into scandals and internal conflicts and that opened the door to a Republican win. The same thing will happen
