How in the world did we win in 1995 when Pete Chilcutt was averaging 16+ minutes per game in the playoffs...?
their first table made my point from the other article when they showed how many titles each player should have won. i said great teams seem to win way more than simple odds would predict. as they showed, 9 teams have had a 50% chance to win and 8 of them did. simplifying and using the average odds of those teams (60%), there was only a 7% chance at least 8 of them would win. and yet here we are. also, pythagorean win totals seem to give very weird results. they have the 88-89 cavaliers as the best pythagorean team in the WHOLE LEAGUE and they lost to jordan on the ehlo shot. i've never heard anyone mention that cavs team as any sort of real contender. they also say the 89-90 suns had the best pythagorean team in the league as the 5th seed in the west. teams simply play too differently in the regular season and playoffs for this to all mean much.
1988-1989 Cavs was a solid team though... 2nd seed in the East in seeding and actual W-L Hall of Fame Coach in Lenny Wilkens THREE starters that were all-stars that season: Larry Nance, Mark Price and Brad Daugherty. Ron Harper, Craig Ehlo, and Hot Rod Williams as a really strong supporting cast. Six players with a value over replacement player of over 1.0. On that third bullet point, seven teams in league history have had 4 all-stars in the same season.
hmm, better than i thought. still not sure anyone gave them much of a shot and certainly not the best shot of winning, but respectable nonetheless.
Could have been much, much better. Ted Stepien traded away a generation of first round draft picks... it's complicated. 1980 1st round pick dealt to the San Diego Clippers for Randy Smith in 1979. It ended up being the #9 pick. A weak draft overall. Future all-star Kiki Vandeweghe and Jeff Ruland were still available. 1981 1st round pick dealt to the Sixers for Terry Furlow in 1977. It ended up being the #4 pick. Tom Chambers and Rolando Blackman were still available as was 1988-1989 Cav Larry Nance, who they acquired later by trading away Kevin Johnson... the point guard, not cornerback. 1982 1st round pick dealt to the Lakers for Don Ford in 1979. The pick was #1 and ended up being... James Worthy. Original 1983 pick was dealt to the Hawks and ended up with the Mavericks. The #11 pick was Derek Harper. They also had the Sixers original 1st round pick... it was the #3 pick. It ended up in the hands of the Rockets... for Rodney McCray. The NBA sympathized for the Cavs and gave them the #24 pick overall. The selected Stewart Granger. 1984 1st round pick was dealt to the Mavs for Mike Bratz in 1980. The pick was #4 for Sam Perkins. Others available at #4 included Barkley, Thorpe, Willis, Stockton. A sympathy pick was granted at #12... Cleveland chose Tim McCormick. 1985 1st round pick with Chad Kinch was dealt to the Mavs for... Geoff Huston and a 3rd rounder. The first round pick #8 was ... Detlef Schrempf. NBA gave a sympathy pick at #9 who ended up being Charles Barkley. 1986 1st round pick was #1 overall via Clippers and Sixers, and Cleveland had its pick still. Chose Brad Daugherty. Additional final sympathy pick was granted at #8 for Ron Harper. Its original pick was traded to Mavericks in 1980 along with 1983 pick and Bill Robinzine for Richard Washington and Jerome Whitehead. Also of note, Mark Price was acquired on draft day as the first pick in the 2nd round. 1987 1st round pick was #7 Kevin Johnson... dealt rookie year for Larry Nance who the Cavs passed on in 1981. Even if the Cavs dropped to #10... Reggie Miller, Horace Grant, Mark Jackson, and Reggie Lewis were all still available. Cavs bad management essentially paved the road for the Celtics, Pistons, and Bulls to dominate the East for a generation in the late 1970s. The Cavs lineup could have easily been in 1988-1989 but way too much butterfly effect in play: PF Larry Nance SF James Worthy C Brad Daugherty SG Mark Price PG Kevin Johnson 6th Detlef Schrempf
The thing these stats don't control for is how many variables were playing against the Rockets during that game. Don't get me wrong, the 0-27 was awful, and statistically, we make a couple of those any other game, but there were several things that greatly increased the likelihood of us missing those shots: Injuries obliterated our roster and left us with a six man rotation. We had no legs by the 2nd half. To build on #1, we were guarding probably the single best offensive team of all time with those six men WHILE trying to beat them on offense. Even less legs (we're at negative legs now, for those keeping track). To build on #2, the Warriors were no slouch defensively either. IIRC, they were like 7th in defensive efficiency in the regular season that year? And obviously they were not trying very hard in the regular season. They stepped their game up in the playoffs. ESPECIALLY for a game seven that they were never supposed to be in, against a depleted roster that had no business beating them. They had a deep, versatile roster playing for their dignity on defense. EVEN LESS LEGS. Scott Foster/NBA officiating in general. Nuff said. (But I'll say more -- Rockets were fouled on a handful of those threes. In fact, Harden even MADE a three halfway through that dry spell, but Foster waved if off, erroneously claiming the foul came before the shot) Any good, experienced shooter at any level knows how important it is to have your legs underneath you on long bombs. Can only imagine how much more true that is in one of the biggest playoff games any player on either team had ever played... in the friggin NBA. ... Ugh, I don't need to be in this thread right now.
Something like that. But those odds did not account for the likelihood of the comeback being sparked by Josh Smith and Corey Brewer. If the comeback was caused by Harden getting hot in the 4th, it would still be amazing but Smoove and Brewer? That's how unreal that was.
