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Super Tuesday Predictions

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by Major, Feb 26, 2020.

  1. RudyTBag

    RudyTBag Contributing Member
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    Yeah.
     
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  2. Major

    Major Member

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    Like I said, you don't seem to understand how elections work. Doesn't matter if you win or lose counties in an election - margins matter. Biden doesn't care if he wins California by 5 million votes or 8 million votes or 15 million votes.

    BTW, today, Bernie did far better with independents than Democrats...
     
  3. foh

    foh Member

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    I'm excited. But yea, in the big scheme of things, I think you are right.
     
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  4. Major

    Major Member

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    Say what you want - the end result was that Bernie's hoped-for voters didn't show up. And Biden got a ton of new Democratic primary voters from the suburbs. Bernie continues to underperform and his massive organization and supposed army repeatedly has failed to bring out voters in every state so far in 2020. The entire idea of his campaign that he can expand the electorate with disaffected and disillusioned voters is failing miserably. Even his own home state - he went from 80+% in 2016 to 51% this year.
     
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  5. JayGoogle

    JayGoogle Member

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    Maybe it was, but it could it have been trolls taking over a thread and the mods just closed it because it was getting downvoted?

    We have actual US intelligence also state that we have people that use social media to help sow division, so really, some rando comment shouldn't mean anything.

    A lot of what Trump is going to do is say that Bernie was robbed and cheated, he's already doing it, it won't help if others start otherizing Bernie voters and excluding them as part of the anti-trump coalition.
     
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  6. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    Today that neighborhood is run down. Yes, a working class family might be able to buy a home there, but I doubt that they would want to. No zoning, which Houston is famous for. When I was growing up, the small houses were well kept, the lawns mowed, the front doors left unlocked. It hasn’t been that way for a very long time.

    Look, you can do nothing, help reelect trump by doing so, and watch the continued assault on our democracy, the continued massive tax cuts for the ultra rich, the huge cuts in social services that trump has proposed in his budget, the trillion dollar a year deficits. You can watch trump and his corrupt Republican Senate confirm far-right judges eager to take away your rights. You can pretend that “they are all alike” if it makes you feel better when you do.

    With all due respect, I find it depressing. I grew up with people who lifted themselves up with help by the government, using programs passed by the Democratic Party. I remember Whites Only signs at our local public park in southeast Houston. I have vivid memories of riding the bus to go downtown with my grandmother to go to Foley’s, really to window shop. We would eat lunch at an inexpensive place and then ride the bus back, riding in the front both ways, Black Houstonians crowded in the back.

    I watched all that change, gradually, thanks in large part to the Civil Rights Act and other reforms, passed by the Democratic Party with the help of a few Republican senators. Proposed by Democrat Jack Kennedy, passed by Lyndon Johnson, who knew it would cost his party the South. Those Republicans? They couldn’t sniff an elected office in the Republican Party today. There is a great deal of difference between the two political parties. Yes, inequities exist, they always will. We are human beings and we aren’t perfect, but if you think the Republican Party is a better choice, or sitting it out is a better choice, with all due respect, you are deluding yourself.
     
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  7. foh

    foh Member

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    Who is crazy enough to waste 5 hours to undermine democrats. I guess a few people on here were thinking of doing that. That's just crazy. Biden has always been considered the more likely to win the presidential race than Bernie. I'm sure he is not more likely to lose than Bernie. Even the young crowd was relatively pragmatic about wanting to vote Trump out, so I doubt that they will be voting for Trump over Biden like they did in 2016. Hopefully they will stay away from Stein type of candidate this time around (one can hope...)
     
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  8. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Contributing Member

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    And it most likely has nothing to do with the actions of Bernie and everything to do with the existential fear of Donald Trump along with mainstream outlets from the beginning of the primary season disproportionately create a narrative that Bernie can't beat Trump because "socialism" which became the narrative moving forward as a self fulfilling prophecy.
     
  9. Roxfreak724

    Roxfreak724 Member

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    A lot of them did show, including many Latino and young voters that would not have otherwise been involved in the political process. Bernie won Latinos and youth votes overwhelmingly.

    But ya, turning out low propensity and cost-intensive bet that is a tough fight. It's one of the many reasons the Democratic Party has become a party of the managerial class in the last few decades, they just find it "inefficient" to campaign in rural, youth, and minority areas since there's little initial ROI. It's the reason 52 senate seats are now elected by 18% of the population.

    That managerial class also watches a lot of the mainstream news and the coverage in the last 72 hours decidedly changed the race. Undeniable especially considering the Biden Campaign had literally next to nothing in terms of ad spending, organizational infrastructure, etc.
     
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  10. Major

    Major Member

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    Yes, of course, because Bernie's failures never are his fault.
     
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  11. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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    Since they are Russian?
     
  12. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Contributing Member

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    You know when you discuss how Russian influence effected the election with Russian troll accounts and leaking of DNC private correspondences and then some right wing poster in bad faith tells you "so everything is Russia's fault"? when you clearly mean it's one of the reasons?
     
  13. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Contributing Member

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    This is another media created narrative that has become a self fulfilling prophecy.

    Now tell me in the last 40 years of rhetoric, why would Bernie have a "black problem" relative to someone like Biden?
     
  14. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

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    I don't think 45 is the right cut off point for Bernie's big support gap , it's probably 18-30 where be has a large gap while Biden has the support of the group 40+-X.

    It stands to reason that the older crowd turns out in greater force - They are the larger group period.
     
  15. foh

    foh Member

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    Was that coverage convincing?

    What does Bernie offer the "managerial" class?
     
  16. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Contributing Member

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    A stronger consumer market where people will be more prone to buy a new Ford or apply for a mortgage vs paying off student loan debt or medical debt.
     
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  17. Mr.Scarface

    Mr.Scarface Member

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    One word: Obama. Biden is seen as having Obama’s back. Many Black voters trust him for that reason alone.
     
  18. Deji McGever

    Deji McGever יליד טקסני

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  19. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    You may not know this, but the two political parties don’t decide which days or dates they can use for their presidential primaries. The State of Texas does. Both political parties have those primaries on the same day. I think I can safely say that if the state would allow presidential primaries on a Saturday, the Democratic Party would be thrilled.
     
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  20. foh

    foh Member

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    This is an unknown due to macro economic issues that a government driven economy brings with it - Bernie didn't make a case for a great economy boost during debate when he was accused of being a communist by Bloomberg. When choosing between a known ok economy and an unknown 'better' economy, I think managerial class will go for the safe choice.
     

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