Her path to the nomination is a longshot, but as you just pointed out: she’s improving and has increased her odds, however slight they might be. Most candidates would be thrilled to see that type of movement within the span of one week. She’s also raised $12M+ during that time period. She’s proven to be a strong debater. Let’s see what happens tomorrow night. Apart from the last sentence, the rest of your post is solid analysis.
To be honest , I don't care if she has no path to the nomination , (same for all the others) I don't want any of them dropping out. I want them all fighting for delegates and a brokered convention - Someone has to save us from Bernie and I'm counting on those super delegates to do the job. Anyone who think's the gubmint spending 60+% GDP is a good idea is off their rocker.
Klobuchar is polling DEAD LAST in both Nevada and South Carolina. She is trailing freaking Tom Steyer in both of those states. At some point you have to see the writing on the wall. If Klobuchar finishes outside top 3 in the next two primaries, then it's time to call it a day and work towards a possible VP nomination. Setting your politics aside, what you are advocating for is in fact the best course of action for a Bernie nomination. With everyone staying in the race, moderates keep fighting each other with only a few reaching the 15% threshold to needed win delegates. Meanwhile, Sanders keeps winning with about 25% of the vote and keeps adding more delegates than anyone else. And you honestly believe Bernie will be denied the nomination if he has a large enough plurality of delegates say 40% and the next closest candidate only has 20% by the time we reach the convention? This would fracture the party and lead to a massive loss in November if Sanders supporters quit and stay home. So, either you haven't thought through your strategy or you're a Republican hoping for chaos among Democrats.
She was in a similar position before NH before she dominated the last debate and used that success to finish a strong third. Since then, as you pointed out, she’s improved. And as I pointed out: most candidates would be thrilled to see that type of movement, and fundraising, in such a short time. There’s a debate Wednesday night. Let’s see what happens.
Yes, every candidate has had their moment in the spotlight. Warren peaked in mid October, Buttigieg in Iowa, and Klobuchar in New Hampshire. 3rd place finishes will only get you so far. At some point you have to win states outright to be considered a serious contender. Klobuchar is nowhere near that in the polling data. More strong debates are not going to change these underlying factors. With Bloomberg soon joining this already crowded field, the spotlight will be on him and his money. Time is running out for 6th placed Klobuchar.
Like I said: I acknowledge her bid is a longshot and she can’t afford any setbacks. That said, conventional wisdom doesn’t apply to 2020 politics. This nomination could go in a number of different directions: Bernie wins it outright, Bloomberg swoops in and steals it or the center-left crowd consolidates its support into one candidate. The latter is the most like outcome, IMO, and if Klobuchar can continue to play the long game, exceed expectations and wait it out, anything could happen. There are whispers of a brokered convention for a reason. We have a reality TV show President. Conventional wisdom simply does not apply.
I watched both segments of her and Pete. I’ll watch Bernie’s tomorrow. Both Pete and Amy were very good. Pete definitely had the best zinger and handled the question about his sexuality masterfully. He also gave a good answer on guns. Amy gave a great answer on guns and moved the audience member to tears. Amy also killed it on election security, or lack thereof.
I know it’s early still but I think Amy is likely getting my vote in a couple weeks. This whole Bernie vs Bloomy slug fest already has me nauseous. It’s disgusting to watch the party have these two be the last two guys left if the polling is any indication. I really like Bernie but I’m disgusted with his campaign team and hardcore supporters. Bloomberg seems to have a Pandora’s box of horrible opposition research and I can only imagine where the Trump conspiracy theorists can go with 4 months of non stop George Soros type of conspiracy. I think he’s incredibly weak and Bernie has issues galore. They are making Amy and Biden look great.
You're way jumping the gun on this. For one, polling data alone wouldn't cause me to bow out of the race. Klobuchar made a steady jump despite polling numbers pre-NH. As others have alluded to, another strong debate performance could lead to more support. A poor performance by Bloomberg could lead to her siphoning his votes. Steyer could come out of nowhere and finish third here. Biden could win tonight. Warren could get sixth, drop out, endorse Amy, etc. It's way WAY too early to call it at this point. If I'm Klobuchar I'm staying until Super Tuesday (Minnesota) at least....(unless I lose to Tulsi Gabbard in both NV and SC).
That's a lot of conjecture and wishful thinking at this point. Poll after poll is showing Klobuchar dead last in 6th place with 6.4 points nationally, only slightly ahead of Steyer who is running a novelty campaign. The underlying data is not in her favor. Klobuchar's modest gains since New Hampshire have come directly from Warren. That's it. Look at the data. Both have almost identical 3 point movements in opposite directions. Klobuchar has siphoned educated women voters from Warren, that's it, nothing else. Again, I'm not attacking Klobuchar, but the data is showing no signs of improvement for her ahead. Her 6.4 points nationally is not even a blip on the radar of forecasting models anymore at this point in the race. Sure, Klobuchar should stick it out until Super Tuesday, but at this point her probability is reaching "miracle" territory.
I think the onl I think the only thing we know at this point is that Bernie can expect to draw delegates in most states. I personally have no idea what position anyone else is in. Buttigieg is only beating Amy right now in that RCP average despite essentially tying Bernie in both Iowa and NH. Biden is second nationally despite doing horribly in the aforementioned states. Bloomberg is third nationally yet has zero delegates thus far and we're just now seeing a debate from him. Sure, I'd like Amy's chances better if she were polling higher at the moment..but I have a pretty foggy crystal ball for the viability of anyone not named Bernie Sanders.
That's simply not true. Klobuchar was already polling 3rd in New Hampshire with 11.7 points prior to the start of the primary. Yes, she outperformed that expectation with a final result 19.8 points, but the data had it right all along about her finishing in 3rd place. That's why I implore you to look at the data from Nevada, South Carolina, and Super Tuesday states, which clear shows Klobuchar in 6th place everywhere. Look, I'm not trying to put Klobuchar down. I'm just looking at the data in front of me. I would give the same analysis about Buttigieg going forward.
For once we agree on something - Klobuchar. As for Bernie - He's a likable character .... and seems pretty damn honest , I just cant get past the policy - 71% GDP as government spending. Bloomberg is full of it , he's just like Trump minus the obnoxious personality. Self Serving.
Bernies “policies” are unicorns. He’ll never in a million years be able to do something that drastic but I understand why he goes that far in his consistently repeated values. He sets the bar out there so far out there that it pushes the conversation and public persuasion where it needs to go to make change for the better. But make no mistake about it... Bernie is full of it. It’s politics though and I believe he does it for what he believes are the right reasons. He’s a values guy. But I don’t think he’s got the ability to unify the party in a way that someone like Khlobachar has the upside to do. I see how he polls in the expansion states like Texas and AZ and that scares me. Overall he polls well but when you slice the data there are big concerns.
Bernie will never be able to fulfill his campaign promises. Obama had both houses and the presidency and still had to push through compromised health care reforms. I'm not on board with half of what Bernie wants, but I'm on the Bernie wagon just to see him nudge things left and end the corporatism of the Democratic party. Its ridiculous that both sides are run by the billionaire donor class.
What’s not true? Which part? Look at the exit polls. Half of NH voters decided in the days leading up to the primary. She was #1 among those polled that said the NH debate was important in making their decision. She’s raised something like $12M+ since the NH debate. To suggest that wasn’t a game-changing moment or that it didn’t contribute to her success in the primary is preposterous. Then there’s the part where I made a reference to her finishing a strong third. How is that untrue? She doubled her support. She was one of three to earn delegates. If she had stayed where she was polling, pre-debate, she wouldn’t have earned any delegates at all. I mean this all respectfully. I just have no idea where you’re going with this. It seems like you’re trying very hard to paint this no change, nothing to see here picture that no facts or reason support. And this is a continuation of our back-and-forth from earlier. You posted some updating polling indicating since NH she’s made the following gains: +2 nationally +6.5 in Nevada All in the span of one week. More evidence that she’s improved. But then you go and say “there’s no path forward for her”. I realize this all falls under your larger point about her being a longshot to win the nomination, which I don’t disagree with, but your reasoning and methods of reaching that conclusion are very confusing.
It's funny. Bernie is my second choice for those exact feelings and not my first choice for those same reservations. I'm still with Warren because I believe she is better at navigating the legislative waters, and I like her track record of tackling big business corruption.
I know most of the debate stuff is entertainment and political noise, but I do think that each time she does get to speak she makes lots of sense...