(severe case of too-much-time-on-his-hands-itis, today, I supppose..) Anyway.. Spent some time breaking down, at least rudimentarily, the remaining schedules for the Rockets, as well as the Grizz, Mavs, and Lakers. Some interesting tidbits came out: *Of our 17 remaining games, only 6 games are against West teams ahead of us in the standings, and three of those are in Houston. *Of our remaining 17 games, we have FOUR sets of back-to-back games. (8 of 17, or almost half) *Memphis has it worse - they only have 16 games left, and they also have 4 sets of back-to-backs. The Mavs and the Lakers each have only two sets remaining. *Only one other team in the West (GS) has played as few games as the Rockets have - 65. Everyone else has played between 66 and 68 - meaning we have more games left to make up ground. *Even though Dallas has been stinky on the road this year, their remaining road games have only 3 opponents against whom they are likely to lose: Jersey, Indiana, and Houston *Dallas and L.A. both by FAR have easier schedules the rest of the way than either Houston or Memphis. Both teams could realistically go 12-4 the rest of the way. *Lots of talk has centered on Houston's schedule being the 'toughest' remaing schedule in the west, but I believe Memphis' schedule is even more brutal than ours. I can easily see the Griz losing 6 of their last 7 games. *Each of the 4 teams has pretty well established, by now, what kind of team they are, how good they are, and therefore, when looking at the schedules, you should be able to make a fairly good guess about the outcome. (Even though Houston has pretty much defined the term 'inconsistency' this year, they seem to be getting their balance at the right time). However, each team has what I will call 'Swing Games ' left, meaning that they are games that could reasonably go either way, for one reason or another. In other words, the swing games are the games in which the results may surprise you, and could easily go contrary to predictions. *Dallas only really has one swing game, that being April 13 at home against the Griz. Opposite end of that spectrum is L.A., whose 16 remaining games have, by my count, 8 games in which they could do the opposite of what one would expect them to do. Memphis and Houston are in the middle. (swing games in blue) Houston Rockets 03-15___Phoenix___(W)___ 03-19___@_GS_____(W)___ 03-21___@_Kings___(L)____ 03-22___@_Por____(W)____ 03-24___Toronto___(W)____ 03-26___@_Griz____(W)___ 03-28___@_Bucks___(W)____ 03-29___Minn______(W)___ 04-01___@_Lakers___(L)___ 04-02___@_Nuggz___(L)___ 04-04___Kings_____(L)___ 04-06___@_G.S.___(W)___ 04-07___@_Clips___(W)___ 04-09___Nuggz___(W)___ 04-10___@_Jazz___(W)___ 04-12___@_Sonics__(W)___ 04-14___Dallas____(W)___ It looks to me like we will have a rough first week of April, losing 3 in a row, but then bounce back to finish strong. It looks like our most reasonable 'best-case' scenario would have us finish on a 13-4 run and end up at 52-30. With the swing games in the mix, we're looking at about maybe a worst case of 10-7 and a 49-33 record. This assumes, of course, that the Rox saty focused, and keep playing at their current level of quality play. I will be EXTREMELY surprised if we finish below 49 or above 52 wins. I think that's our window. Memphis Grizzlies 03-16___76ers___(W)___ 03-18___Sonics___(W)___ 03-20___Pacers___(L)___ 03-23___Raptors__(W)__ 04-24___@_Knicks___(L)___ 03-26___Houston___(L)___ 03-28___@_Tor____(W)___ 03-29___@_Hawks__(W)___ 04-02___Suns_____(W)____ 04-04___@_Minn___(L)____ 04-05___@_Jazz___(L)___ 04-07___Cavs____(L)____ 04-09___@_Lakers___(L)___ 04-11___@_Suns____(W)___ 04-13___@_Dallas___(L)____ 04-14___Minny______(L)____ It really looks to me like Memphis is going to have the wheels come off in April. In 3 of the 4 sets of back-to-backs, they face playoff-level teams (or at least teams which should be scrambling for the playoffs) on the second of the two games. That's why I see them losing at the Knicks, at the Jazz, and at home against Minny in the last reg.season game. I think the very best they could manage would be maybe 11-5, which would place them at 52-30... but with this schedule, they could just as easily stumble in at 6-10, to finish 47-35. To me, this is not particularly good news. I believe very strongly that we WILL pass up Memphis and take the 6th spot heading into the playoffs, dropping the Griz to 7th.. This means that, as things stand now, we would face, not the TWolves, as everyone hopes, but the Spurs. We lose that series handily. So, as we are busy passing up the Griz and feeling good, we also need to become the world's biggest Spurs fans, in the hopes that San Antonio makes up the 2 games by which it trails Minny.. problem is, the Spurs would probably rather face us than Memphis, and I guarantee Minnesota wants NO part of Houston in the first round, so all in all I am not too optimistic that the Spurs overtake the Wolves and win the Central. In that case, the only real hope we have is that the Mavs stumble badly and let us pass them up for 5th place, in which case we would face the Lakers. That would be my second choice behind Minny as the preferred opponent in the first round. It would be a good thing, but it is not likely. See below. Dallas Mavericks 03-17___Hawks___(W)___ 03-19___Celts____(W)___ 03-21___@_Nets__(L)___ 03-22___@_76ers_(W)___ 03-24___@_Pacers_(L)___ 03-26___@_Heat__(W)___ 03-28___@_Magic__(W)___ 04-01___Kings____(L)____ 04-03___Suns_____(W)___ 04-06___Sonics____(W)___ 04-08___Jazz_____(W)___ 04-10___@_Sonics_(W)___ 04-11___@_G.S.___(W)___ 04-13___Memphis__(W)___ 04-14___@_ROX___(L)____ It looks to me like the Mavs have a creampuff schedule. Even though they have sucked royally on the road lately (and therein lies our one faint hope), only 3 of those road opponents should beat them (Nets, Pacers, and Rockets). If the Mavs manage to lose to any of those other lottery teams on their road schedule, then they are in some serious trouble come playoff time, IMHO. Maybe Walker somehow contributes to this team just disintegrating down the stretch, or some other miracle happens to let us pass them up.. in any case, I doubt it, but you never know. Stranger things have happened. Bur if we Do somehow manage to pass the Mavs, that leaves us with the Lakers in the playoffs. Los Angeles Lakers 03-15___Magic___(W)___ 03-17___@_Clips_(W)___ 03-19___Clips____(W)___ 03-21___Bucks___(W)___ 03-24___Kings____(L)___ 03-26___Minny___(L)___ 03-28___Jazz____(W)___ 03-30___Hornets_(W)___ 04-01___Rockets_(W)___ 04-02___@_Sonics_(W)___ 04-04___Spurs___(L)____ 04-06___Portland_(W)___ 04-09___Grizz____(W)___ 04-11___@_Kings_(L)____ 04-13___G.S._____(W)___ 04-14___@_Por.__(W)____ The first thing that jumps out at me about the Lakers' schedule is, if anyone ever tells you that the schedule-makers do not deliberately try to make some teams' schedule easier as they mosey to the playoffs, they are LYING to you. 12 of the final 16, a home'away vs the Clips (who did they have to fellate to get THAT on their schedule this time of year?), and only 5 games against good teams. On the other hand, I think the Lakers are the most unpredictable of the four teams.. based on how unstable their season has been, and all of the soap-operas they have been having to deal with, this team could go in any wild direction, and it would totally surprise me. The Lakers could easily go 12-4 the rest of the way (or heck they could run the table for that matter), or they could just as easily do a crashand-burn and fall flat with a 7-9 record.. if they do that, then the possibility still exists that we could steal 4th and have home-court in the first round. If so, I would much rather both Dallas and LA fall, so that we get LA instead of the Mavs or Grizz. I could see maybe one of them falling flat, but both would be a serious stretch.. if one falls, we will likely end up with the other in the first round.. While I would not prefer Dallas in the 1st round, that would be better than the Spurs. Well, after all that thinking and writing, I predict that the Lakers and Mavs do NOT fall flat, and retain the 4th and 5th spots.. however, I would be extremely surprised if we do not pass Memphis for the 6th spot. Also, I believe that Minny is looking over their shoulders, they are scared of us, and start playing scared as they see us passing Memphis, and they lose the Midwest to the Spurs, leaving us heading up to Minnesota to *ONCE AGAIN* knock the Wolves out in the first round - and then get schooled by TD in the 2nd round. So, what do you guys think? Does any of this make sense? Am I completely off base somewhere? Did I leave anything important out? Did I bore you to tears? hehe I am just trying to contribute to a general positive atmosphere as we head into the postseason for the first time in a long time.. Lemme know your thoughts...
Rockets will knock Spurs out of the first round but get trashed by Kings in a 5 game series. I watched Kings vs Spurs yesterday, damn that team has some fine shooters.
Damn no edit! Sorry it is so long.. just got on a roll.. ugh.. Anyway, we have FIVE back-to-back sets, not four.. meaning 10 of our final 17 games are on consecutive nights.. which means that Utah game might bite us hard.. 4th game in 5 nights.. besides, by that time, JVG may be ready to rest some of his players, I can feel that Utah loss already..
Great analysis, Nero. Both interesting and thorough. While we can quible all day about some of the specific matchups (I would think the Grizzlies would be favored at home against the Cavs, for instance), I agree with the spirit of your assessment. A couple of thoughts: 1) I know what you mean by Swing games, but I'm a little confused by your definition. If Swing games are games that could go either way, or, "pick 'ems," wouldn't those be the games where a Win or a Loss would not surprise you? In other words, the Mavericks 3/17 game against the Hawks is most likely a Mavericks victory, and a loss would be a surpise. (Therefore this is not a swing game). The Mavericks 4/13 game against the Mavericks game, though, is a tough one to predict, and we probably wouldn't be surprised by either a Win or a Loss. But that's just a nit-pick; I think I know what you're saying. 2) More importantly . . . I think there's a very good chance that the Lakers will finish up with the #3 seed. Right now they have 23 losses, same as the Spurs. You pointed out the ease of the Lakers' schedule, plus, now that they finally have the four Hall of Famers back in the lineup. I see them sprinting to the finish and making a hard charge for the #3 seed. Which would be great news if we're #6. A minor side note: I would LOVE to face the Lakers in the first round. My stance is somewhat cynical but here it is: I think we'll lose to whomever we'll play in the first round. (Sorry, I hope I'm wrong, but I'm embracing my inner A-Train when it comes to the first round. I just don't think we're there yet: next year). But if we're going down, I want us to go down in the most entertaining way possible: an epic, over-hyped, media-frenzied showdown between the Lakers and the Rockets. That would be one of the most anticipated first-round playoff matches of all time. Again, Nero, great work!
I would love to face Minny in the first round and im starting to second guess my self on taking on the lakers becuse now that Malone is back i dont think its gona be a walk in the park anymore. Oh and good thread now that i acctuly read it
I always laugh at the way people often project wins and losses based on current winning percentages. I'd like to see one team in the league go undefeated, another only lose 2-4 games (depending on if the best team in the league is in their conference or not), then all the way down to the last placed team in the league, who doesn't win a single game. Why won't it happen that way in real life?!?
great analysis. one thing though, if the rox-mavs game is a "swing game" for rox, shouldn't it be a "swing game" for mavs as well? It can't go only one way, right?
