Revisiting the 15 FGA stats, and some other Mobley tidbits

How come you didn't answer the next part of my post? I was saying that Francis' 15+ shot games only yield .500 result--low comparing to Mobley's and Yao's. The numbers appear to show that some player's shooting have more impact than others. That's the main point of the original post. Your argument has not refuted it.

 

The Rockets are undefeated (18-0) on days that I wake up before my alarm clock goes off.

I apologize for all of the losses that occurred when I overslept.

Go Rockets.

 

Remember how Super Mario, the slowest release in the world, would kill on threes when The Dream was surrounded? That's supposed to be Pike's role, no?

What would Pierce do with this team? Or Wesley Person? Or Brent Barry? For that matter, Rashard lewis at the three for three?

All that said, Cat is doing pretty well. He's growing into JVG's system. (His first step is a killer!)

Again, I ask, with Cat up for an opt-out after NEXT season, is he more or less movable if move him they must?

 

Go to bed early tonight then. Rockets need you...

 

The Rockets losses all occurred when they overslept.

Go Rockets.

 

Uggh, you guys bash a thread even when it makes good points.

Many of the stats are insignificant, but the 15fga is the one that should make perfenct sense. When Mobley and Yao is are getting the shots in our offense, good things happen. Doesn't mean the percent has to be spectacular, just as long as these two players are getting the shots, we usually win. This pisses the FOF off cause Francis doesn't have the same track record when he get his shots. As for the 50% thing for francis, hell I can pull up a bunch of those and it won't mean a thing, like when Mobley shoots 50%, when yao shoots 50%... etc. All those mean is that when players hit shots we win, well doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that out.

This is no knock on Francis, he just needs to be playmaker first on this team, scorer second. Good thread.

 

To me, it's just an obvious statistic that you should take it with a grain of salt. Here's the rule of thumb that probably can be applied for any team in the league with our type of talent at our key positions.

A point guard's job is to pass first, so if Stevie gets a high assists, there's a good chance we'll win. A center's jobs with Yao's talents should post up alot and change shots in the lane. If he does that effectively there's a good chance we'll win (ie block shots record last year if yao is active gets at least 3 blocks a game). A SG's job is to shoot the ball well consistently. If he does his job, there's a good chance we'll win.

Cat shooting 15 times would mean that he's on a hot streak to me. If he's not hot and active, he won't shoot the ball as much. <b>I can guarantee you that we will have a worst record if Cat shoots over 15 times a game for the whole year because of his inconsistency. </b>

 

Sorry. I didn't really feel patiently one way or the other about the interpretation of the statistics. My passion was more over the use of what I termed "symptom statistics" vs. causal.

But if I were to try and defend the position that the stats have very little direct coorelation to the interpretation, then I would probably do so as follows:

Rockets are 6-2 when Francis takes exactly 15 shots in a game.
Rockets are 2-5 when Francis takes exactly 16 shots, with the 5 losses to Sacramento, Indiana, New Jersey, Detroit and Memphis - teams with a combined winning percentage of 67%.
Rockets are 3-4 when Francis takes exactly 17 shots, with losses to the Kings, Spurs, Sonics on the Road and Celtics in a horrible defensive effort.
Rockets are 4-2 when Franics takes exactly 18 shots in a game.
Rockets are 1-1 when Francis takes exactly 19 shots in a game, with a road loss to the Grizzlies.
Rockets are 1-2 when Francis takes 20+ shots in a game, with a loss to the Spurs and a road loss to the Raptors.

To my mind, the theory doesn't hold up. It sounds good to say they are 500 when Steve takes 15+ shots a game, but that breaks down when you look deeper. They win 75% at 15 shots and 67% at 18 shots. At 17 shots, they won 40% with loses to teams with a combined 67% winning percentage. The sample at 19 shots is small, and 20+ accounts for 3 out of 65 total games this season.

Does Steve's shot attempts explain why they allowed the Celtics to shoot 47% from the field or 50% from the 3-pt line?

Or why they allowed the Sonics 47.9% from the floor and 53.3% from the 3-pt line?

Or the Spurs, 45.8% from the floor and 46.2% from the arc.

etc.

 

I don't think that is where most of the objections come from. My objection comes from the fact that the stats are fairly useless. If we have a good winning percentage when Yao shoots 15 FGAs, then the obvious solution is to give Yao at least 15 FGAs each game in the future, right? And, if there was no defense played, that would even be true. But, in actuality, you can't be that rigid in a real basketball game. You have to react to what the defense does. On some defenses, shooting 15 FGAs is profitable; on others, it isn't. Some YOFs will look at this stat and say we should pound the ball into Yao every time down the floor. But, that's preposterous. The game isn't that simplistic. So, what does the stat tell you? Not much of any use, as far as I can see.

 

Okay, what a ridicules reach. First of all, it sound "bad" when we win 50% when steve fires 15+ shots, because it IS bad. 15+ shots at a 16-16 record is 32 games. That is around half the games this season, how the hell is that a "small" sample. We aren't talking about defense or anything else, there are night when no player shooots 15+ shots and we may still be able to win because of balance offense and hellified D. Doesn't change that fact that when certain player are getting the shots, we win more. Seriously, your twisted attempts at logic is looking more a more hilarious after each post.

 

Yeah, that is true. No stats is conclusive, but for comparison sake you can't disregard the fact that when Mobley/Yao is getting the bulk of the shots, we win more games then when Francis is shooting. Yet, he has shot more then 15 shots in games more then any player on this team, why?

 

The bottom line is that Francis should share the ball more for us to be effective. It's not saying Cat necessarily should shoot more because of his inconsistency.

 

I would have to disagree with you Mr. Coffee.

Kevin Garnett 20.5 FGA
J. O’Neal 18.3 FGA
Tim Duncan 18.1 FGA
Randolph 17.1 FGA
YAO 12.1 FGA

All these players have to play against a zone. All these players have to face defenses that are specifically trying to stop them. The difference between these teams and the Rockets, is that these teams have offenses that are strictly built around their best player. Also, there is a commitment from the other players to sacrifice their shots for their best player.

 

Moniker, I swear I have no idea what you're saying when you compare the above winning percentages to other NBA teams. Seriously, which 2 NBA teams have a better winning percentage when Mobley gets at least 15 FGA? That doesn't make any sense. Are you saying that only 2 teams have better records when their own SG gets at least 15 FGA?

And the same thing goes for the second example above: The best winning percentage compared to WHAT?!?

The stats on their own are impressive, although not conclusive of much. The Yao stat, for example, could indicate that when the guards don't play selfishly, we usually win. It could also indicate that when he's single-teamed, we win. Or maybe it says that when Yao is hitting his shots and the team works harder to get him his touches, we win. Maybe all of the above.

The thing about these one-dimensional stats is that they pretty much exist in a void, and don't demonstrate much of anything until you pair them with other stats. For example: What FG% does Yao average when he gets 15 or more FGA, compared to less than 15? Maybe it's got less to do with his number of attempts than with how well he's shooting? There's no way to know with a single simple stat like that.

 

Both Yao and Cat got more shots tonight, and the team lost.

Next !

DD

 

Yao shoot 1st,Cat 2nd. If we obey the rule we will be among top 4 in west conference.

 

Sure. I sort of get what you're saying, although you've said it twice now and I still maintain it really doesn't make much sense the way you put it. So you're saying that *if* the Rockets were able to get those two players their shots and *if* those players were able to hit the same percentage of those shots, the Rockets would have the best record in the league? Um... okay. You're also assuming that the defenses in all of those games wouldn't have changed one iota to shut down these two players who are now getting more shots, thereby forcing OTHER Rockets to take more shots?

I agree with Tb-Cain: Stats can be used to support any point of view.

My theory is that you should put the ball in Yao's hands as often as possible, because he is getting better and better at knowing what the right thing to do is in a given situation. And of all the Rockets, he's the only player who is improving noticeably from month to month. I say we live and die with Yao now so he'll be forced to learn the game as fast as possible. I think most of us realize at this point that in the long run, he's the one who's going to bring us another trophy.

 

He missed 5 shots, why dont you look at the beautiful stats that our Guards put up last night?