so, I’ve sold tickets to game 7 already and made a $1300 profit. Obviously, if the Astros win game 6 there will be no money made for a non existent game 7. So, should I bet on the Astros in game 6 so that if they lose I make money on the tickets and if they win I make money? I’m guessing they will be -150. If so, how much should I bet on the hedge?
That is tough since I'm assuming Houston will be favored around -200 moneyline? Betting $1300 wins $650. I wouldn't bet more than what you would profit from going to a game 7. Worst case I would want to break even. I'd probably bet $650 on Houston if it were me. W - $650 to win $325, L - $650 net to you from tickets Just depends how much you want to risk and if you see it as playing with house money and if you think Houston will likely win. As a fan I feel like we can win this next game.
Boy, when you put it that way my outcomes go from 0 or 1300 to what, 325 or 650? Eliminates 0 as an option but really lowers the ceiling on the deal. Who here would hedge? Who here would let it ride?
Consider looking into the over under run total instead. They’ll probably set that at around 7-7.5. You’ll get a better pay out on that bet without having to risk as much. Don’t bet more than you’re willing to lose. Logic says to take the under, but you never know! I wouldn’t want to touch a money line bet at even -150. That’s just me. Good luck!
If I bet the over under a could lose the bet and not get a game 7 to sell my tickets. No hedge. I’m calculating risk tolerance here, not doing anything that increases my risk which betting the over under would.
The book I use has them at -170 for game 6. Personally I don’t see the appeal in hedging here as you aren’t currently at risk of losing anything - right now you’re either at $0 profit/loss or $1300. -170 isn’t a great payout IMO - I’m not sure I agree with the poster above about the run total line, you could lose both that way very easily. If you’re willing to risk that, IMO I’d bet the run line which my book has at +125 (Astros have to win by at least 2). Edit: And yeah you could lose both ways but it would take some kind of cruel world for the Astros to win by exactly one and you lose both lol
Ah, I see what you’re saying. From what I’m seeing you’re not going to get -150 moneyline though. Looks like -175 and I’d guess it gets worse before it gets better. Nothing wrong with a good hedge. Good luck!
Since someone pointed out that the ML is closer to -170 than my assumed -200, I would probably adjust the Game 6 ML bet to around $800. $800 W - $470 L - $500 That is close enough to a 50/50 hedge if that is your goal.
You can get Astros -175 ML right now. You could also bet Astros RL -1 at -130. If Astros win by 1 the RL -1 bet would push and you’d net nothing. All about what you want to do. Astros -1.5 is +130, but that is not a true hedge. If it were me I would do a mixture of ML and -1 RL bets depending on what you want your potential payout to be.
Most books have alternate run lines. You can usually bet -1 up to -2.5 or even more at some books. Try bovada.lv, heritagesports.eu, nitrogensports.eu. Nitro is a btc book tho.
Didn’t make the bet. Astros win and I get to celebrate an Astros WS championship Nationals win and I get $1300 and a game 7 to watch. Win/win for me, right? Glass half empty and it means an Astros title costs me $1300. So conflicted. End of the day- Go Astros.
So, how did the whole Mattress Mack thing end up? Customers didn't get refunds because the Astros didn't win a title. Did he lose his ass in Vegas or what?
Mack sold over $20 million in mattresses. My guess is that his markup is 5x so that would be about a 16 million profit. He lost 10 million or so net in his bets (but it wouldn’t surprise me if her further hedges some of his early season tickets at, say 6 or 7-1 when the Astros became much shorter odds. All netted out I’d guess he made 5-7 million on this promotion if you consider the Vegas losses to be “insurance” he bought. And a ton of publicity, obviously.
Lol Mattress Mack is a degenerate also. I wouldnt be suprised if he lost a **** ton of his own money gambling on the Stros. He was the same one who took them at -220 odds for Game 5 of the ALDS. Believe me only degenerates take those types of bets with those sort of odds.
