Bauer may have been Cleveland's 4th starter in the playoffs. If Kluber returns healthy, they likely got stronger for the playoffs. Edit: Such a weird trade. Cleveland is depending on pitchers to get healthy to mitigate the loss of Bauer, but get a lot of depth for future and likely save about $20 million next year. One of SDP or Cincy is likely going to come out a big loser, if not both. Trade seems to hinge on whether Trammell can get his power into the game. Padres obviously believe he can, while Cincy doesn't.
I don’t think the Giants sell. They can QO Bumgarner and they won’t get much more for value over the draft pick by trading him. But they should have rebuilt 2 years ago and they should rebuild now. They have <10% chance of making the playoffs. Rangers would be very foolish not to trade Minor. Wheeler and Roark will be traded but Luhnow may not want to pay the price.
I think that undersells Tyler a bit. He’s not worse than 3rd imo. If they end up as the wild card their 3rd starter will get 2 starts if the ALDS goes 5, because their ace will only be able to pitch game 3 after starting the WC game. Cleveland is just a nightmare match up in a 5 game series to me. It just underscores how good the AL is at the top.
I didn't even include Rojas in my post because I didn't think he had enough value, but that'd be fantastic. What a difference a few months make. This is the kind of trade the Astros need, one that nets them two starts in the playoffs without losing future rotation starters, because with a near-top record in MLB and their lineup finally back to full strength, it's not like they need help in the regular season. The Giants have a -47 run differential and need to beat out two of these teams for the wild card: the Cubs, Cards, Brewers, Nats, Phillies. No way is that happening. The only thing holding them back is that this is Bochy's final season. This would have already been a done deal had the Giants lost a couple more one-run games than they won.
I guess I’m ok with Madbum or Wheeler provides the guys going out aren’t more than a couple 45 fvp. It doesn’t do anything for 2020 or 21 like Greinke would but it’s worth doing if the guys going out are light enough (I.e. barely better than a QO type draft pick).
I would love it if the Pirates sell low on Archer, but I just don't see it. He'd be slotted behind Wade, for sure. But I love the idea of him as our #4.
Kluber if healthy is better. Bieber is better. Clevinger has been a lot better when he's pitched over the last calendar year than Bauer. I wouldn't disagree much if Bauer was slotted higher than one of these guys, but at worst, Bauer is a small improvement if the other guys are healthy as the number 3 starter. Cleveland was dead in the water regarding playoffs if they didn't get healthy and didn't add bats.
Nothing. They scared me last year too. Baseball in a 5 game series is so random. It’s not like hoops where the best team on the floor almost always wins a best of 7.
Last year Tyler was top 5 in CY Young voting, right? I know he hasn’t been as good this year, but I’d still take him over Clevinger and Bieber in the proverbial gun to my head scenario. The Indians starting staff is so good. They are now less good inarguably. But if the argument is they are still good enough I wouldn’t disagree. Put it this way- if we’d have played 10 3 game series against them last year I’d venture that’s the only sweep and we might only win 6 or 7 of them.
Greinke is having a great year but that 70 million on the books isn't likely to fit with Luhnow's future plans. If they go that route I'd be happy but shocked. Wheeler has zero play-off experience, I don't think he's even been a play-off chase. Can he pitch in the play-offs vs the top teams? Do you really want to risk finding out if the Astros are down 1-2 in a series? I think he'd be a last resort if the price is right. At least he'd be a lefty that can punch out hitters. Here is the real target...Madbum rental for a 25 year old Rojas and a few non top 3 prospect is a no brainer. It would be great to get a guy that is familiar with the Dodgers current line-up and has experience of what it takes to calm himself and preform in October. He gives the staff a lefty. All the signs point to Madbum as the Astros new #3. Getting Madbum over here with Verlander should really strike fear in the rest of the play-off teams. Cole and Verlander are CY Young leaders. Wade is steady and always gives a strong effort. Add Madbum and the Astros are the clear favorite in every match up.
Yeah that’s a good question. Like you said, there are several different metrics to gauge who won a deal. For this one I think filling holes is the metric. Indians do lose a solid starter with postseason experience (but should be getting Kluber back soon and maybe even Carrasco sometime this season). However, you get two legit major league bats in Reyes and Puig (which they desperately needed) and a top 100 pitching prospect that has a legit chance to be a #3-4 starter. So not only do they get back major league talent that immediately fills holes, but they also get a serious prospect. Like you said, I think it probably slightly decreases their chances of winning a playoff series this season, but I’m sure they realized they weren’t gonna be able to re-sign Bauer after next season, so this is a really good return for them.
Astros hypothetical for every starting pitcher I think will be traded today: Astros get: SP Mike Leake $8M Mariners get: 2B Tony Kemp Astros get: SP Zack Wheeler Mets get: RHP Bryan Abreu SS/OF Myles Straw C Garrett Stubbs Astros get: SP Robbie Ray Diamondbacks get: RHP Jose Urquidy OF Derek Fisher OF/1B Seth Beer RHP Cristian Javier C Nathan Perry Astros get: SP Tanner Roark Reds get: 2B Tony Kemp C Garrett Stubbs OF/SS Myles Straw
Bauer had a huge drop in homers given up last year. They are back. Bauer looks like a great pitcher that had an abnormal year of home run luck in 2018 to me. I used the word "may" to indicate uncertainty in whether Bauer would be No. 4 starter or not. If we are talking proverbial gun to head scenarios, there must be proverbial uncertainty. While I can understand having the opinion Bauer is better than those two, I don't understand how that opinion can be absolutely certain with publicly available data if assuming healthy (which I think Cleveland is doing).
