Negative Partisanship predicts Trump is toast in 2020

You think Bernie would have won 2016?

 

What got Trump elected is flipping Reagan Democrats from Obama. Its the same votes up for grabs every year.

Turnout was also a factor. However like others have stated, going all in on helping migrants is not a winning strategy

 

Anecedotely I'm sure it happens, but empirically voter turnout of Trump's base and lack of turnout for the Democrat base especially younger people was the main culprit.

 

No doubt lack of turnout for Democrats played a key role.

On that note none of the current candidates bring excitement but that can change. Its early

 

That's absolutely false. People are genuinely exited for candidates like Warren and Bernie unlike Hillary.

 

What candidates are saying they will raise taxes on the middle class.

Harris is campaigning on a middle class tax cut, Biden does not have a plan, I don't see where Warren is planning on raising said taxes.

i will agree the immigrant coverage question was problematic but you seem to blowing it out of proportion.

The real issue is turnout with the democrats I think moderates and blue collar will stay home instead of vote for Trump.

you also know candidates track to the center in the general.

 

What candidates are saying they will raise taxes on the middle class.

Harris is campaigning on a middle class tax cut, Biden does not have a plan, I don't see where Warren is planning on raising said taxes.

i will agree the immigrant coverage question was problematic but you seem to blowing it out of proportion.

The real issue is turnout with the democrats I think moderates and blue collar will stay home instead of vote for Trump.

you also know candidates track to the center in the general.

 

What candidates are saying they will raise taxes on the middle class.

Harris is campaigning on a middle class tax cut, Biden does not have a plan, I don't see where Warren is planning on raising said taxes.

i will agree the immigrant coverage question was problematic but you seem to blowing it out of proportion.

The real issue is turnout with the democrats I think moderates and blue collar will stay home instead of vote for Trump.

you also know candidates track to the center in the general.

 

Donald Trump is in many ways to the left of all of the other candidates that he ran against. The trade policy that he is currently implementing is in large part what the Democrat left has been clamouring for for years. He is holding these countries accountable to respect fair trade, or they get what they give.

Enforcing the border, is not really right wing so much as it is respectful of the nation-state as the key unit of international power. Countries left and right tend to identify with their nationality, so the suggestion that identifying with and being supportive of your home country is somehow right-wing is just another lie by the usual suspects.

Instead, this position is anti-globalist. Globalism does tend to be identified with the left, in that the core ideology is an elitist socialism, of the sort that has already been tried and failed in spectacularly horrific manner in Russia, Germany, China, Cuba, Vietnam, North Korea, Venezuela, etc. It is an ideology that only tolerates democracy for as long as it is forced to. Eventually, those checks and balances are cast aside and life is good for the establishment elites, at least until they run out of other people's money, while the masses are bullied and terrorized into submission. We have seen this pattern too many times to indulge the lie that we do not know how this plays out.

On many other issues, he did not hold himself out as especially right wing, and he has over the course of his life actually been a Democrat. He appears to be more of a pragmatist.

 

Bernie? Com on bro

Progressives are excited Warren. Progressives aren't going to win you an election. Warren has to develop a more broad appeal. Not saying it cant be done but you sound very naive

 

There seems to be some move afoot to try to pretend that Warren is a centrist. She isn't. She is competing for the "Progressive" vote with Bernie Sanders.

 

Bernie Sanders recently said flat out that he will raise taxes on the middle class. That is political suicide.

A lot of blue collar workers do not like all the attention given by the Democrats to undocumented immigrants and issues at the border. I have had a lot of people in small towns, that are pro-union and moderates say that they believe that their interests are not being considered by democrats and point to immigration as an example. Iv'e heard everything from "they aren't even citizens and they have more protections than we do" to "we are competing with them for jobs". Honestly it isn't something that anyone on the democrats side has addressed properly other than Bernie Sanders, and even with Sanders they believe he will reward people for not working hard. It is why a lot of blue collar workers do not like welfare state ideas, they say "I work hard, I bust my ass.... so should they".

Will some moderates choose not to vote? Sure, but that hurts democrats as well. As far as blue collar voters not turning out, I wouldn't count on that. They are not married to Donald Trump, and are aware of his history and background but he at least attempts to pander to some of their values and concerns.

Also, this is all about the Electoral College. Beyond the primaries, it doesn't matter what people in NY and California and Texas want or believe. It is going to matter what people in Pennsylvania and Michigan and Ohio and Florida and Arizona want and support. In a lot of those places older voters and blue collar voters want. The democrats need to stir up high voter turnout in these states and they need to get half of the blue collar vote.

 

Main stream democrats do not and have not for decades supported the trade policies of Donald Trump.

Enforcing the border? Being tough on immigrants and illegal immigrants has been a position cherished by Republicans far more than Democrats.

Yes, and the Republicans favor xenophobic policies that result in fascist dictators and history has showed that results in fantastic failures. We can go back and forth with biased and simplified view of history.

He nominated two very conservative Supreme Court Justices. He passed an incredibly Republican tilted tax bill. He is against citizenship for long term illegals living in the USA. He worked very hard to end immigration to the USA from a number of areas of the world that he does not like. He has taken a number of racist positions that align with the Republican Party. He is a self serving w**** above all else, but he knows on what side his bread is buttered.

 

They will all be raising taxes, just some more than others. Kamala's middle class tax cut is for the lower middle class making under 50k per year. If you make more I'm sure you'll be paying more in taxes. It's been estimated that Bernie's tax increases will reduce after-tax income for individuals by around 18%, and that was before paying off all student debt so no telling how high it is now. Warren's affect on after-tax income will probably be at little less but by not much. People in general will be poorer but will have more government handouts for all.

 

Bernie Sanders is currently 4th and dropping why would you assign him that much say?

I understand your issue with democrats moving to far to left but you don't have to assign stances that mom of the front runners are advocating like raising taxes on the middle class.

A lot of those middle class, blue collar workers are not enthusiastic about Trump and voted for him to give him a chance of they don't vote Democrat they will likely stay home.

Trump won the electoral college by 70,000 voted between 3 states, that is not some insurmountable number to flip.

I agree with a lot of what you are saying here I just disagree with you claim democrats are advocating for as well as what voters democrats need to energize.

I also think you are projecting what you hear in your community on all moderates and blue collar workers.

At the least we need to who the Democratic nominee will be and see what they actually campaign on.

 

you are making an awful lot of assumptions especially about the over 50,000 dollar earners,because one that is actually a cut off from what is considered middle class.

i have no idea why you bring up Sanders he has almost no chance to be nominated so that shows you most democrats don't agree with him which is really my point.

You totally projecting that most people in general will be poorer.

 

Exactly. Medicare for All (and it's other names) is already sugar coated words among voters for a tax hike.

Dims are three steps behind on the messaging game and continuing to treat the midwest as flyover states is a big reason why.

I'm a bit sick of the progressive zombie echo chamber. It's like they doubled down rather than eating post-Trump crow.