I was just browsing some stats when I noticed the team stats line for the Mavericks. Their opponents actually shoot a higher percentage than they do, but they have a better record than us! Then I noticed that they have a +2.8 TO differential. This led me to wondering about what the top teams in the league are doing well, especially compared to the Rockets. Minnesota: 848 free throws made A great offensive team and a really good defensive team. They shoot .468/.352/.784, while holding their opponent to .420 for an impressive .048 differential. They also take care of the ball at 12.6 TOs per game, allowing them to achieve an impressive 5.3 points differential. Their only weak spot is rebounding - apparently no one besides Kevin Garnett bothers because despite his 14 rpg they do not out-rebound their opponents. San Antonio: 898 free throws made A good offensive team but a great defensive one. They shoot .435/.350/.663, while holding their opponents to .401. They also out-rebound their opponents by 3.2 rbg while keeping their turnovers at about their opponents level. These factors contribute to their startling 6.5 points differential. Their achilles heel anyone named Tim Duncan, Rasha Nesterovich or Bruce Bowen at the line. The scary thing is that if they could bring their turnovers down from 15 a game to around 12 they would be a much better team. Dallas: 930 free throws made A great offensive team but a poor defensive one. They shoot .450/.337/.787 but allow their opponents to shoot .457. They hold their own on the boards but the key is their turnover differential of +2.8. A team that runs as much as Dallas and plays as many possessions as they do only turning the ball over twelve times per game is absolutely amazing. Thanks to this they have a nice point differential of 3.5 - which should go up because the rumor is that Dirk has his shot back (he was only shooting .222 from behind the arc.) Sacramento: 1019 free throws made See Dallas. Shoots .470/.344/.736 and is the best passing team in the league but allows opponents to shoot .454. They give up a little bit on the boards (-1.2rpg) and take back a bit on turnovers (1.1). Oh, and they do have the best point differential so far at 7.4, partially due to their ridiculous amount of free throws made. Memphis: 925 free throws made Blah...445/.339/.727, -2.2 rpg, 15.2 TO, opponents shoot .435. But wait! This team of ballhawks forces 17.3 turnovers per game and steals the ball almost 10 times per game. That and the way they make a living at the foul line helps them to their healthy 2.1 point differential. LA Lakers: 1011 free throws made The Lakers stats are almost completely unremarkable: .447/.337/.697, -0.9 rbg, +2.1 TO. They have a 2.9 point diff mostly because they spend a ton of time at the free throw line. Go figure - a team of all stars gets a bunch of calls. Oh wait, there was one remarkable figure: they went 18-3 when they were healthy. Indiana: 926 free throws made Oddly enough, nothing really stands out - good offensive team, reasonable defensive team. .428/.346/.758, +1.8 rbg, +1.5 TOs, lots of free throws made. Apparently in the East that's enough to get you a 39-14 record and a 5.1 point differential. They do play a ball-control style similar to Houston (but better), and apparently it has been effective for them. The strange thing is that they have a great record against the west (12-6), but every western team down to Houston does as well or much better than them against the east. Against eastern comp: Pacers(27-8), Kings(15-2), Wolves(20-4), Spurs(18-7), Rockets(18-6). Oh well, we'll see when the playoffs come. Houston: 837 free throws made Houston has a mediocre offense and a great defense. They shoot well enough .436/.365/.761 and out-rebound their opponents by 3.7 rbg, but don't get to the free throw line that much and have a -3.3 TO differential. That is 2nd worst in the league! It kills their offense and hurts their defense, and Van Gundy must not be sleeping at night. The bright side is that they hold their opponents to .395 shooting. They would clearly hold their opponents to the lowest ppg if they did not turn the ball over so much. As it is, Houston has a good point differential of 3.1 ppg and has a rosy future if they can stop turning the D#($ ball over. My best guess is that we would be very similar to San Antonio - same defense, similar offense and our higher FT% would make up for Yao not getting the foul calls that Duncan does. That's a nice picture for the playoffs....oh yeah - and a REALLY BIG IF!
Good post. But if you wanna have more freebies, you need to get some love from the refs and some good acting skills. As we can see, despite having 2 All-stars, Yao and Steive never gets enough respect from the refs as other all-stars do and they don't play acting tricks. JVG seldom yells at the refs too. Perhaps Collin Pine needs to teach Yao how to "communicate" with the refs and yells at them when he's fouled.
I hope you also realize that the Mavs shoot around 20 more times per game than the Rockets. Stats taken out of context are useless.
what the hell does that have to do with percentages and differentials, which is what these stats were about. the only possible thing it could have to do with is total free throws. nice breakdown GS.
um, more possessions = more free throws and most likely more TOs for the other team. It has everything to do with the purpose of his thread.
Not nearly as useless as incorrect stats. For the record, currently the Mavericks only take 13.2 more shots per game than the Rockets. 4 of those 13.2 FGA's/game are easily attributable to the 9.3 more fastbreak ppg that Dallas gets over Houston. IOW, Dallas takes a whopping 9 more FGA's per game than Houston. My conclusion from the stats in this thread or stats anywhere else is that the the Rockets are not offensively very efficient. The key indicators being last in fastbreak points, 23rd worst in TO/game and the strong coorelation to Yao's FGA and games won.
That was my point MFW2310 - the turnover differential between the Rockets and Dallas is even more surprising because Dallas only has 12 TOs on many possession, while the Rockets have over 15 TOs on relatively few possessions. However, you do make a good point - considering the pace of play that the Spurs have, the fact that they have taken 1355 free throws already is absolutely nuts, and almost as surprising as Dallas's low turnover rate.
Now the big question is: does anyone think that the Rockets can learn to take care of the ball well enough to become an elite team? They are an elite team, except for their turnover ratio.
Gutter Snipe, I'm no longer worried about missed defensive assignments. The whole team just knows where to be now. They no longer have clueless players on defense. If they do make mistakes, they get chewed out! I've seen Mobley yell at Yao and Francis yell at JJ. They take the defense seriously now because they are taught to do so. It's funny to watch! Now, the team assist and turnovers is what is killing us. It's like we try to make passes and cuts. Lots of unforced turnovers too. The passes are sloppy and untrained. So we revert back to a more simple/sluggish style offense. Not ISO, but just simpler plays. And we still have 24 second violations. Check out these storable stats... http://www.nba.com/statistics/sortable_team_statistics/00002.html Look at where Houston is on "Assists (team)" and "Turnovers." Ugh...
Yeah, that's where I got my turnover stats from. I agree that the last place in assists looks ugly, but I think that assists can be an overrated stat. #8,9,and 12 on the list are Chicago, Portland, and Cleveland. Looking further down, you see San Antonio at 18th and the Pistons at 26th. There clearly is not a direct positive correlation between number of assists and number of wins, although it apparently takes a fast-paced quality offense to lead the list. You know what they don't track though? Passes and the correct spacing that put a guy in a high percentage scoring position. Yao and Mo Taylor score at over a 60% clip when they get in favorable positions, but this rarely results in an assist for the passer. I'd like to see the Rockets work on creating some plays that make it easy for Steve to score as well. He has worked so hard at changing his game this year, and I think it would profit the team to set him up as a dangerous offensive threat by getting him in more situations where he can use his scoring talents. Every other scorer in the rotation seems to be fitting in well - if we can fit in Steve while we tone down the turnovers we could have a fun team to watch.
Heh heh...I was thinking the same thing...when I was looking at the list for team assists I was thinking that we don't necessarily have to be number 1 in that stat, but rather somewhere in the middle. I mean, geeesh! Why do we have to be the WORST? As for turnovers. Now that stat does affect wins and losses. And in the past championship, most of the teams that competed for the ring had around 12 to 14 turnovers per game. That is a good marker to shoot for. If we want to be the best team we have to maintain a turnover ratio of, let say 13 <---that's our lucky number! I remember looking at the Pistons, Rockets and Bulls turnover rates during their championship runs. They were always around 12 - 14 in team turnovers. "Passes and the correct spacing that put a guy in a high percentage scoring position." You know what? I've had debates about that very thing. That was a learned team skill (and talent) that some players have and some don't. "The ability to pass a ball to another player that is in the BEST position to get a HIGH PERCENTAGE SHOT." Bird did that best with the Celtics of the 80s. The whole team's mantra was that every single shot HAD to be the easy of sorts. Fast breaks lay-ups, and back door passes, and double-passes in the post for another lay-up. Most shots were not forced. Most shots were setup. Most shots were of little individual effort. And most shots required teamwork. That's why they were able to score at such a prolific rate. They relied on these high-percentage shot FIRST for the team, then used "heroics" from Bird to carry the team the rest of the way. I remember Cousy or Russell talking about it on ESPN...something about "60% of the teams shot attempts were lay-ups or dunks"..and the rest were "jump shots that were contested shots." I can't remember how he phrased it exactly. But something like that. This supports the idea that Bird would get his worst players involved early in a game....and to make it easy for them to score. He elevated their games. And like you said, it required very good spacing and an innate knowledge of where playeres were going to be on the court at and specific times. As for a "stat" like that...Hmmm, it's hard. It's subjective. How do you "measure that?" Hey, check this out... Look at Orlando -> http://www.nba.com/statistics/sortable_team_statistics/00002.html Check out their *points scored per game* and *points allowed per game*....then go check out their *turnovers per game*... They protect the ball, score reasonably well, but can't defend worth a lick! P.S. I like the idea of Francis getting easy shots close to the rim. In the last two years, every time I've seen Francis cut under the basket it was an automatic 2 points. That's a weapon that we don't use enough: him cutting under the basket to receive a pass. The high screen and roll could work in that instance.
That sounds like the current Sac Kings - except they don't really have that star player for the heroics - and they can't defend worth a lick (too bad ) I know we have Yao pass to the cutter (usually Steve) sometimes, but it always seems to be a bounce pass and I've seen it picked off almost as much as it succeeds. It also looks like a really hard play to finish for a small guy - catch a bounce pass in the paint and then go up among the trees for a finish. I think Yao could deliver some lob passes from the low block that would actually be higher percentage because only the person flying in the air to the basket could catch the ball...but I suspect that it doesn't suit Van Gundy's conservative style. It would still be fun to watch and I think we have at least 4 guys who could finish well (Steve, Cat, Boki, and Cato).
