Here's my prediction: No matter who the next President is he or she will preside over a growing and strong economy. The only thing that will stop this growing and strong economy (and only maybe) is another terrorist attack on US soil that is of the same magnitude (or greater) than 9/11. Bush or Kerry... it won't matter. The economy will rebound and if Bush is in office Republicans will try to take credit and Democrats will say "it could be better". If Kerry is in office the economy will still grow and the Democrats will say it took one of them to turn the economy around and Republicans will say it was getting better anyways. Just watch.
That's a pretty rosy view. However, trillion dollar deficits will stop the economy extremely fast. That's what happened in the 80's after Reagan left ofice, and this time it's bigger both on a dollar and percentage basis. Especially if the US loses access to cheap foreign capital to finance its debt, which is possible if the dollar continues to plummet.
The usual economic cycle is 3-4 years from peak to peak. It would not be unexpected to hit another recession in the spring of 2005, four years after the last recession.
