I like the simple formula. Put the ball in the hoop , play defense, box out for the rebounds and keep the turnovers down.
Harden going downhill. Bet that for a bucket or capaela alley oop! The rockets are good enough to turn it on come playoffs regardless of a shotty road record presently.
Last 20 games: 61-168 (36%) on step-back 3s 41-71 (58%) on floaters Opposing teams might be playing him tighter to deny the step-back 3s of late, opening up better opportunities for him to go to his floater.
I've really enjoyed the back and forth on this thread so far. Just a couple extra things I wanted to add: It's been my hunch that--at least in these past few years where James has been an MVP contender, and maybe even sold out with his body just to make that final down-the-stretch push to win the award--towards the end of the year he consistently seems to run out of gas. Just like Trevor Ariza, however, we don't see it in terms of minutes played or his ability to run the floor, but rather in his shooting percentages. Well, maybe NBA front offices with their second spectrum data can tangibly measure Harden slowing down in the closing stretch of the year and the playoffs. But we as fans have little else besides shooting percentages to hang our heads on. Here are Harden's shooting splits the past few years: 2014-2015: (MVP runner-up): (FG%) / (3PT%) / (FT%) Pre-All Star Break: .455 / .383 / .870 Post-All Star Break: .412 / .360 / .864 Playoffs: .439 / .383 / .916 2016-2017 (MVP runner-up): Pre-All Star Break: .440 / .353 / .852 Post-All Star Break: .438 / .332 / .832 Playoffs: .413 / .278 / .878 2017-2018 (MVP winner): Pre-All Star Break: .448 / .384 / .865 Post-All Star Break: .454 / .319 / .844 Playoffs: .410 / .299 / .887 The 2015 playoffs Harden was truly great. People seem to forget how good he was those early GSW games: best player on the court, no question. The rest of the data above, however, shows a clear trend. Harden might tell you he's fine, but his legs are definitely wearing out by year's end, and it shows in his shooting numbers. This more than anything is why we have to move away from the step-back three as a staple of the offense. It's a regular season game-breaker to be sure, but come playoff time with everyone dead-ass tired, it might be just another mirage. The floater is huge because it could singlehandedly have helped us beat San Antonio in 2017. He always had one, but it's just not nearly as reliable as it is now. One last point: another potential reason that step-back 3 is going in less (seemingly) the past few weeks, is that it IS being defended better. People are expecting it and a few folks are even blocking it. It can't be his #1 move; the dribble drive always has to be that. Without the threat of the drive, people will continue to crowd up on his step back outside shot. This year more than ever I feel like Harden's had great results when driving; we haven't seen nearly as many drives that end in Harden turnovers or non-whistle fouls, with Harden pouting to the refs as the other team goes on the fast-break and lays it in at the other end. That to me is a sign that Harden needs to be driving EVEN MORE than he currently is. Good things are happening. When teams start to keep him honest on the drive is when he can take more of the threes. I'm sure there are smart people in Toyota Center telling him this.
I went ahead and scanned the season for "float" like you did, and like you said, I don't know how accurate it is, but I came up with the following : FGA: 123, FGM: 65, FG% : 52.85% Game-by-game count in the spoiler : Spoiler Code: date opponent result 2018-10-17 New Orleans missed 1 2018-10-21 LA Clippers made 3 2018-10-24 Utah missed 4 2018-11-10 San Antonio made 1 missed 3 2018-11-21 Detroit missed 1 2018-11-23 Detroit made 1 missed 2 2018-11-24 Cleveland made 1 missed 1 2018-11-26 Washington made 2 2018-11-28 Dallas made 2 2018-12-03 Minnesota made 1 2018-12-06 Utah made 1 missed 1 2018-12-08 Dallas made 1 2018-12-11 Portland made 3 missed 3 2018-12-13 LA Lakers made 2 2018-12-17 Utah missed 5 2018-12-22 San Antonio missed 1 2018-12-25 Oklahoma City made 3 missed 1 2018-12-31 Memphis made 1 missed 1 2019-01-03 Golden State made 1 missed 1 2019-01-05 Portland made 1 missed 3 2019-01-09 Milwaukee made 5 missed 1 2019-01-11 Cleveland missed 2 2019-01-13 Orlando made 4 missed 2 2019-01-14 Memphis made 2 missed 1 2019-01-16 Brooklyn made 1 missed 1 2019-01-19 LA Lakers made 1 missed 2 2019-01-23 New York missed 1 2019-01-25 Toronto made 5 missed 2 2019-01-27 Orlando made 4 missed 4 2019-01-29 New Orleans made 1 missed 3 2019-02-01 Denver missed 1 2019-02-02 Utah made 2 2019-02-04 Phoenix made 2 2019-02-06 Sacramento missed 2 2019-02-09 Oklahoma City made 1 missed 1 2019-02-11 Dallas missed 1 2019-02-13 Minnesota made 2 missed 2 2019-02-21 LA Lakers made 5 missed 3 2019-02-25 Atlanta made 6 missed 1
I like the discussion here. My only problem is calling a floater a go-to move. It just cant be. Down 2 with 5 seconds left he cant "go-to" a floater, especially if hes doubled or they are icing the PnR clogging the lane. A "go-to" move is something that you can always actually go to and get off. That's the step back 3 all day. Whether you hate it or not. Kareem had the skyhook, Dirk had the fadeaway, Hakeem had the dream shake, harden has the step back. The lob in and of itself is just a counter to the defense on his drives. When he drives the lane and I imagine his preffered options in order are 1) layup 2) lob 3) pass to corner 4) floater Every time he drives hes looking to lay it up and break the defense down. Depending on what the defense gives him is how he reacts. When he cant drive he hits the step back. When he is being pressed tight on the 3 he drives. I'm super happy the floater is efficient this year. It's still less efficient than the step back. It's all just a set of counters, we aren't smarter than him and we dont know what's better for hi.. We, just need to sit back and watch his brilliance and live with what he decides.
Not sure if this stat is available but it is worth considering. How many times is Harden FOULED on those step back 3's that result in his *THREE FTAs* on that possession where he is shooting 87% from the FT line? The more volume/chances he is to get fouled on that shot where *3 FTAs* are awarded the better.
Regarding people defending the step back better. I don't have data on this, just eye test, but the times he gets it blocked or well defended are the times where the shot clock is about to go out. Basically the defender KNOWS it is coming because a DRIVE is not available with the amount of time left. Harden needs to initiate things much sooner to OPEN UP other options to keep the defense guessing. Look, I get that he wants to size up his defender and look for him to go off balance to determine his move, but he has to do it faster and take his chances. Otherwise, teams can double team or defend the only available option and it makes it tougher.
I told y'all the floater is just his counter move and he was overusing it b/c of the shoulder/neck injury. Jimmy back to his old dominant ways of going all way hard to the cup.
Sure but it's another option to add to the arsenal, sometimes defenders play on top of him at the 3 point line while having a big guy sit back in the paint guarding the basket. If the basket isn't open for the layup and the 3 is taken away then being able to hit that floater is key.
Never said it wasn't, its just that SOME (@hakeem94) PEOPLE (@durvasa) hate Harden's 3 pointers and would rather have him take contested 2 pointers. Think about the game against Boston today, while the rockets 3s went silent in the 4th quarter (thanks to getting fouled on every attempt), their 3 point barrage in the other 3 quarters gave them such a massive cushion that they lost the 4th quarter by 11 and still won the game by the same margin.
That 6th foul on the floater was painful. Perfect time to pull up for a little midrange baseline jumper. Harden can be deadly with that if he adds it to his repertoire.
Definitely his floater. Actually, Harden should just drive to lane a lot more in general.... he's that good.
Its wonderful to see Harden expand his game every year and seemingly fill in any real gap his offense once had. 2012-14: takes first step into mastering the P&R with Asik and later Howard. 2014-15: Has his best clutch shooting season for his career, takes full use of his peak athleticism 2015-16: lol no 2016-17: goes from setting the turnover record to breaking his own turnover record while averaging 12 assists per game, masters the P&R 2017-18: Improves upon the step-back 3, cuts down on his turnovers, becomes a net positive on defense, improves his ISO game to unforeseen levels of efficiency 2018-19: Turns the step-back 3 into a last resort bail out option into his primary weapon, improving on his already insane volume and efficiency, becomes the ultimate volume scoring machine, and is quite efficient to boot. The real question lies in where should he expand next as he turns 30 next year? Perfecting the step-back 3 (38%+)? A CP3-esque midrange game (48%+)? Running a bunch of off-ball actions? Turning Clint Capela into Karl Malone 2.0? Harden knows he's on his back-nine, but players can delay the steep decline though perfecting their skills (see: Stockton, John).
"Harden's step-back 3s generate 1.20 points per shot on average -- better than the Warriors' league-leading 1.15 points per shot. A hypothetical offense consisting solely of Harden step-back 3s would yield points faster than the best offense on the planet". http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/26118445/these-step-back-3s-sent-another-planet ^This was a great read
