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Boras spotted in Houston airport.....Harper??!!! Signed with Phils.

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by TheRocketfan, Dec 29, 2018.

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  1. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    Who is we?

    They don't need a cap... they basically have one in the form of a luxury tax. If they start allowing younger players to earn more earlier via a mandatory extension or early free agency, the floor will also take care of itself as it will force small market teams out of the model where they simply hold on to players till arbitration years become too expensive.
     
  2. Buck Turgidson

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    Me. You. Whoever else.
     
  3. Major

    Major Member

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    With Altuve, each side took on some risk there in exchange for something of value. Altuve, as a middling player, got guaranteed lifetime security, while the Astros got upside.

    With these 7-10 year, $200+ million type contracts, they never seem to work out for the teams. Has any team had one of those and, at the end of it, been happy? There might be a few, but I can't think any offhand.
     
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  4. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    So, you're the players or the owners?

    They're not going to make a ton of concessions to the minor leaguers.... with the exception of the ones that are destined for MLB stardom, where they should get earlier extensions or earlier free agency years.
     
  5. DoitDickau

    DoitDickau Contributing Member

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    Some have. Scherzer’s is a massive win for was. Greinke’s dodgers deal too even if he hadn’t opted out. His second deal with ari is tbd but he might get there. Stanton too. Hell, even Arod’s first 10/250 contract ( obv not the second deal in 2008) provided surplus value to Tex/NY.

    I bet there were even more successes in the 90/00. Problem now is the age curve has shorten and teams are gaming service time to hold players in minors so their control years coincide with their prime age years. that said, machado and Harper are exceptions due to their talent and the fact they came up as teenagers. Giving them a 10 year deal captures their 27-29 peak yrs and will end in their mid-30s. Much different than giving a 31- yo Keuchel, for instance, a long deal.
     
    #65 DoitDickau, Jan 20, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 20, 2019
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  6. DoitDickau

    DoitDickau Contributing Member

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  7. awc713

    awc713 Member

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    All I'm saying is that the current structure needs to be modified. It's not fair for teams to be stuck with decade-long albatross contracts. But, it's also not fair to players to have their career earnings strong-held or arbitrarily restricted by their organizations based on what's in the best interest of that organization. Truth is, the vast majority of contracts in baseball are closer to the latter. And with so many teams "rebuilding", there is a new fold across the sport that's attacking their career earnings.

    Going back to your pount, yes, contracts create and mitigate risks on both sides. But a system designed to pay for past performance is not really great for anyone. It starts with more sufficient pay throughout the minors, and probably a better mechanism to ensure market pay throughout a player's prime years. One interesting idea I've heard is to effectively make a player a free agent at age 27, which many have suggested is the average player's prime season.
     
  8. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

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    First of all, Scherzer is still owed 126 million of his 210 million dollars. He has 3 years left and is also owed deferred payments until 2028. If his arm falls off this year it instantly becomes a bad deal. In other words, because of the backloading of the contract it is too early to tell how good or bad a deal it really will be. Greinke's deal with the Dodgers did work. Stanton's deal is also too early to tell. They have to pay him until he is 38-39. He has been injury prone in his career. It could turn into a Pujols contract the last few years. Greinke's Arizona deal is under water. He's not a 34 million dollar pitcher anymore. ARods 1st contract was good.... because he was on roids.

    Overall owners have been losers on the big contracts and it's not really close.
     
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  9. astros123

    astros123 Member

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    You mean the same owner whos been vastly underpaying strasburg/harper for the past three years? I dont have any sympathy for these owners. Give me a break
     
  10. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

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    You mean when they were under arbitration which is a system that was colletively bargained for with the union?

    Or do you mean the 175 million dollar extension that Strasburg and the Nats MUTUALLY agreed to in 2016?
     
  11. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    Nobody has "sympathy" for the owners... its not even an "us vs. them" debate. At the same time, I have no sympathy for players who "expected" to get paid simply because that's how it was done for years before them, when we all know it makes no sense to give pitchers more than a 3 year deal and there's very little expectations that hitters after 30 are going to have more big years than they've already had.

    The owners are getting more value (and in most cases, better results) from younger/cheaper players. There's revenue sharing and MLB signing huge internet media deals to keep teams flush with cash, that allows them to go on 4-5 year tear-down/rebuilds that allows them to avoid paying anybody big money.

    The owners aren't just going to hand out larger contracts before they have to... unless they're forced to..... simply because the game is flush with cash.
     
  12. DaBeard

    DaBeard Member

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  13. DoitDickau

    DoitDickau Contributing Member

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    So far in 4 years, scherzer has 2 cya, 1 runner up, 4 top 5 finishes; 68 wins; a sub 3 era every year over 220 in per year; and ~ 30 war. Assuming even a conservative estimate of the market for $/win, Scherzer has paid off his contract even if he got hit by a bus tomorrow. Also, generally, because of the time value of money, deferred payments benefit the club—not the player.

    I think it actually is closer than most think. Of the $200 contracts I could find, 4 have or will be winners (arod1, scherzer, kershaw, verlander); 4 are losers (pujols, arod2; fielder, cabrera); 4 are tbd (Stanton, greinke, votto, cano). The problem is with a contract that big, usually paid in free agency at full market value, there is more downside risk than upside. Also the team disproportionally recoups it’s value on the front end and back years of the contract are almost always bad. So at the end, the contract usually looks worse than it actually was.

    Of course, if you lower the threshold to pull in sub200 mill contracts, you’ll start to see the long/big contracts given to preFA players (trout’s, posey’s, bumgarner’s) which have largely been huge wins for owners.
     
  14. Marteen

    Marteen Member

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    Jim Crane spoke about Harper and Machado via New York Post.

    MLB owner: The long-term free-agency deal is dead

    It’s starting to look more and more like those big deals Manny Machado and Bryce Harper want just might not be out there. At least one MLB owner says that’s the way the league is going.

    Speaking Friday at a team event, Astros owner Jim Crane told reporters the numbers don’t support the kind of lengthy deals superstars are looking for.

    “I think that teams are very focused on value, and some of the deals that have been thrown out with Harper and Machado I think are long-term deals,” Crane said. “I don’t think that you’ll see too many more 10-year deals in this business anymore because the analytics are so good and a lot of those deals never work.”

    When the offseason began, speculation was rampant Machado and Harper would both be in line for potentially record-setting $300 million deals. But as the league saw last season, free-agency is no longer the financial jackpot for players it once was.

    Crane said he sees this offseason working out much the same way.

    “I think it’s a little bottled up with the two big guys still out there, but things will break loose,” Crane said. “I think it’s very similar to last year.”

    The free agency market has collapsed in recent years with marquee players failing to earn the kind of contracts – in money or years – they would have garnered in the past.

    As Crane identified, teams have been reticent to give lengthy deals to even the best players in their primes, fearing the statistical drop-offs that often come with age.

    But if players like Machado and Harper – arguably two of the best in the game today – can’t find a home before spring training, the league and the players union may find themselves at a serious impasse.

    Crane, who also left the door open for big-name Astros free agents Dallas Keuchel and Marwin Gonzalez to return to the team, said the market should work itself out.

    “I wish [Harper and Machado] the best,” he said. “You’ll see things get sorted out here in the next few weeks.”

    Sorted out, maybe, but to whose benefit is yet to be seen.


    https://nypost.com/2019/01/26/mlb-owner-the-long-term-free-agency-deal-is-dead/
     
    #74 Marteen, Jan 27, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 27, 2019
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  15. zeeshan2

    zeeshan2 Member

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  16. HTM

    HTM Member

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    Feels like the Harper price is dropping by the day.
     
  17. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

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    Wouldn't surprise me to see him not signed at the beginning of the season. Would be incredibly stupid on his part, but it wouldn't surprise me
     
  18. edwardc

    edwardc Member

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    having Boras as his agent i can agree with you on that .It would be very stupid for him to do something that stupid but dealing with boras that's to be expected.
     
  19. eric.81

    eric.81 Contributing Member

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    I know there's no chance of it happening, but I'm still carrying a torch for him. Putting him anywhere in our lineup (specifically cleanup or the 2-hole) would just be so nuts.
     
  20. Major

    Major Member

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    Crazy stat:

    Over the last year, Marwin had a higher WAR than Harper.
    Same over the last 2 years combined.
    Also same over the last 3 years combined.
     
    eric.81 likes this.
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