Yeah because this stance has worked over the last year. I get that the Marlins want to hit a grand slam with this trade return, especially in light of the prospects they received from the Yelich and Ozuna trades (Stanton was a straight salary dump). I’m not advocating for the Marlins to give JTR away, but it sounds like they’ve been less than reasonable with their trade demands.
The marginal improvement Realmuto would add for most teams just doesn’t make sense. Adding Realmuto doesn’t suddenly make teams like the Padres or Rockies or Reds competitive for their division or even the Wild card. Between those and the rebuilding teams, you start with a list of 16 teams. Take away the teams who already have star catchers (Cardinals, Cubs) or who have significant commitments at catcher (Nats, Angels, Rays, Pirates, Twins) gets the list to 9: Yankees: would be stupid to give up on Sanchez Red Sox: don’t have the prospects, not giving up Devers That leaves the Dodgers, Astros, Indians, Phillies, A’s, Brewers, and Braves as the 7 teams who will likely be bidding prior to the start of spring training. Grandal is probably going to sign with one of those teams. The Phillies (Alfaro), Dodgers (Barnes, Ruiz, Smith), Indians (Haase), and A’s (Murphy) all have high upside young catchers who could break out in the first half next year and eliminate the need for that team. Even the Astros could see Stubbs emerge as someone they want to give a shot as an everyday catcher. And several of those teams (Astros with Chirinos, Indians with Perez, Brewers with Pina, Braves with Flowers/McCann) have serviceable everyday players in place, so they aren’t working from a point of desperation. There’s logic in waiting until Realmuto’s salary is set and waiting for Grandal to sign. But waiting much past those milestones is very foolish imho.
Catchers also have an above average risk of falling off a cliff extremely fast. Realmuto is a couple years younger, but I remember really wanting Jonathan Lucroy a couple of years ago. He had 2 all-star appearances, a top-5 MVP placement, and an .820 OPS over the prior 4 years with a good defensive reputation, and had just turned 30. 2 years later, and he's signing a 1 year contract for under $4 million. Miguel Montero is another guy who went from arguably top offensive catcher in the league to a below average hitter really quickly.
I listened to Craig Mish’s podcast from yesterday. While recapping who has been IN on Realmuto and who he has NOT heard any real news from about him, Mish says he has not heard any names come out from the Astros FO in a possible trade proposal. While our FO is known to keep a very tight lid on things, Mish thinks to this point the Astros haven’t offered anything to the Marlins for Realmuto. Mish does believe the Astros are the best fit of any team, and he thinks the Marlins WOULD listen on an offer not including Whitley and Tucker. He also stated that Hinch is very much into acquiring Realmuto.
As to injury risk, perhaps an injury to the C of a potential Realmuto suitor increases the urgency for that team and they add to what they would. Be willing to put on the table. On the other hand, an injury to Realmuto would be potentially catastrophic to his trade value. Those are two entirely different levels of risk, although both address injury risk. But don’t take it from me. Ken Rosenthals latest piece on the Athletic says it would be “malpractice” for the Marlins FO to keep Realmuto into the season.
Mish agrees with Rosenthal that JT should be dealt, and soon. He doesn’t believe the Marlins will allow JT to go into spring training with trade questions circling around the organization. Mish stated that everybody knows that Realmuto’s value is the highest it’s going to be right now. He thinks at some point the marlins starting price will come down and an auction will ensue for him.
Wait, you're telling me that the manager is into acquiring arguably the best overall catcher in the league? Color me shocked. #Insertyoudontsaymeme
It's amusing watching two simultaneous arguments: 1. Realmuto is a key for the Astros and would be a huge acquisition 2. Miami should be concerned that catchers massively fall off or that no one needs a catcher that badly, or that they risk him getting hurt, so they shouldn't take a chance keeping him and need to trade him ASAP
Both arguments suggest Miami trading Realmuto would make sense. For number 1, I think key is an overstatement. Realmuto would likely improve odds of winning World Series. For number 2, Miami doesn't have potential upside for winning a World Series this year or next year. Outside of dropping an MVP year, Realmuto's value does nothing, but decrease. Without potential for a World Series win, Miami should be concerned that they completely lose his trade value even though massively may be an overstatement. Considering there is a thread on Clutchfans about a potential Realmuto trade, it seems that both arguments have some merit even if the magnitude of those statements may be overblown. Specifically for the second statement, Miami does not have leverage in a trade. This doesn't mean Miami has to trade him to Houston, but there is pressure for Miami to trade him to someone. There are enough someones that no one has leverage over Miami. Edit: I am of the opinion that there isn't a significant difference between winning 60 and 63 games, or 67 and 70 games. As such, the value for Miami in keeping Realmuto is basically not hearing boos, angry tweets for trading him.
From an offensive perspective is it really worth trading top prospects for Realmuto or signing Grandal. Last Season Chirinos hit a home run every 20 at bats, Grandal every 19 at bats, and Realmuto every 22 at bats. OBP was .338, .349, and .340. Biggest difference for Chirinos with just a .751 Ops vs .815 for Grandal and .825 for Realmuto.
"Nick Cafardo mentions two teams hanging around for Realmuto here. End the standoff and get it done with one of them !" Or just shut the **** up about it. Whichever works.
Astros not mentioned here but still mentioned a day or two ago on MLBTradeRumors.com or somewhere. Still confident that the Braves refuse to deal Austin Riley (who will be a stud at 3B) and Jeter ultimately decides not to trade JT within the division. Doesn't necessarily mean he'll come to us, but I do have a little hope. In one podcast last week they said AJ Hinch really wants Realmuto, so that does help. Oklahoma connections, maybe?