Does cc.net have better $s for Walt/Rogers than RealGM

I think cc.net has just come up with better salary numbers than RealGM and Patricia Bender. Please tell me what you think, then Davo can post it, and we can send to Patricia Bender, which we did with Mobley's numbers and Cato's previously, and she accepted them.

After working out the math in Davo's Prediction thread regarding the discrepancy between Davo's numbers and Benders, I believe I landed on some very aesthetic numbers.

As I've stated before, RealGM largely gets their numbers from Patricia Bender, who largely gets them from NBA News Daily reports. These are rumors and leaks, she says, but the Total Compensation numbers are often correct...at least, they are what is reported (not yearly numbers).

Anyhow, see Davo's thread for a long, long explanation of why I think Bender is incorrect on Walt and Rogers. In short, Okkams Razor implies that the simplest solutions should be the correct one.

And here it is:

Using the power of math, the most aesthetic numbers are the following, imo

<pre><font face="courier">
Walt's Salary is $4,500,000 Next Year
Rogers Salary is $3,400,000 Next Year
</pre></font>


Walt's Salary using a 7.14285714285714% interest gives us a beautifully perfect starting salary, raise, and it hits Benders salary for this year plus her $20m on the NOSE in 5yrs.

<pre><font face="courier">
Walt's Salary


'98 $3,500,000 + perfect raises of $250K/yr
'99 $3,750,000
'00 $4,000,000
'01 $4,250,000 this is Bender's current salary
'02 $4,500,000
-------------
$20,000,000 NBA News Daily's Reported Total Contract
--day of signing
</pre></font>

With Rogers, we simply assuming Bender's starting Salary, her Total Compensation, and a maximum 20% raise for the previous CBA. All stars line up in the galaxy then. If we stick to her numbers for this year, she is lost, and you should read the Davo thread for an explanation for a signing bonus solution to her problem, yet the numbers don't perfectly align, like they do below.

<pre><font face="courier">

Rogers' Salary


Base + perfectly max'd 20% raise


'98 $1,900,000 this is Benders starting salary
'99 $2,280,000
'00 $2,660,000
'01 $3,040,000
'02 $3,420,000
---------------------------------
$13,300,000 this is Benders Total Compensation
</pre></font>

[This message has been edited by heypartner (edited April 24, 2001).]

 

I found a salary guy who RealGM then hired who has Rogers at $10m total contract. Yet, the yearly numbers that everyone is showing add up to $10.5m. How can someone be off that much on math, when they provide all the numbers.

Bender is still keeping with $13.3m.

I'm waiting on how she got that Total, and why she hasn't changed it. All I need is Total Compensation, and I can pop out the numbers.

Can't people around the league see that the Rocket's numbers need to be very accurate this year, because that is where the free agent excitement is. How can we be off my half a million here and $3 million there?

 

JuanValdez,

Are you doing work for RealGM?

Note: RealGMs numbers for Walt do work, as NIKE just had me try.

Like this:

<pre><font face="courier">

'98 3,000,000
'99 3,500,000
'00 4,000,000
'01 4,500,000
'02 5,000,000
----------------
$20,000,000
</pre></font>

That is a 16.66667% raise, which works under the previous CBA. I'd be willing to say, when in doubt, go with the higher raises. So, I'm now leaning towards your numbers.

If you could work out who is correct Bender/USA Today, or RealGM/Chronicle....that would be great.

I really don't know what to say with Rogers, as we have conflicting Total Compensation numbers, and RealGMs just don't add up. My gut instinct is that he got a signing bonus, that is screwing everyone up...this bonus counts towards the cap.

[This message has been edited by heypartner (edited April 24, 2001).]