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Harden 2018 / 2019 - GOAT Offensive Season?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by coyotetex, Dec 26, 2018.

  1. RocketsFido

    RocketsFido Member

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    According to the media, Harden's not even in the MVP conversation.

    Harden should be LEADING the MVP race right now.
     
  2. csj

    csj Member

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    Agreed, and I addressed this in the very first post. The entire argument of the OP is wrong and contradicted by the very data he provides. I'm not moving the goal posts, I'm focusing on them.

    That wasn't my comment, though, go back and read it. Also note that it was in response to a personal attack.
     
  3. smoothie

    smoothie Jabari Jungle

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    points per game and points per shot are pretty convincing, but i would bet when you adjust for efficiency (%'s, minutes, usage), and account for points created from assists, few would even be close to the beard.
     
  4. groovemachine

    groovemachine Member

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    This is good analysis, although I see a few holes in the argument for ‘greatest offensive season of all time’.

    For one, the points per field goal attempt is skewed since free throws add to the point total without counting as a shot attempt. Also, hand checking was allowed when comparing to Jordan in ‘89, so one would presume Michael would have been even that much more dominant in 2018-19.

    A more credible argument would be that this analysis demonstrates Harden should be among the leading candidates for MVP again, and also criminally underrated among the the lion’s share of fans and analysts.

    What he is accomplishing right now is truly historic!
     
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  5. LaVar Ball

    LaVar Ball Member

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    hahahaha let's see the data with flops and free throws filtered out
     
  6. Dr of Dunk

    Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

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    I'm not sure what the argument here is, but ... Harden's PPFGA or PPS or whatever you want to call it is so high because of the free throws and three pointers, obviously, which shouldn't be discounted, of course, but some of those guys on the highest PPG list would be at a disadvantage since 3PT shots didn't exist and Harden jacks those up like his life depended on them.

    Among people with meaningful starter-like minutes this season, DeAndre Jordan, Rudy Gobert, Giannis Akhenatenwasanegyptianpharaoh, Danilo Gallinari, and Jarret Allen all have better PPS. Out of those, maybe one person at this point in their careers should be mentioned in the same breath as Harden, but hey, there's the stat. Source, btw : https://www.foxsports.com/nba/stats...&time=0&pos=0&team=0&qual=1&sortOrder=0&opp=0

    In some sense, this is why I have a problem with comparing numbers across eras. Too many rules and game changes over the years to realistically compare athletes by taking the ratio of a couple of numbers (in many cases, anyway).
     
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  7. JCDenton

    JCDenton Member

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    This thread is incredibly amateurish and misleading, the product of flawed statistical analysis caused by an ignoramus who clicked "post" without going through even the most basic peer review.

    Fouled shots are not counted in FGA. The only thing your metric tells is is that a relatively high percentage of Harden's points come from free throws. The fact that he is not way, way ahead of Wilt and MJ while shooting many more free throws tells us that he is significantly worse than them offensively. Although fouled shots are not counted in FGA, they still usually result in a possession change, meaning that using them to juice Points Per FGA does not result in an honest measurement. In fact, Points Per FGA is a completely useless measurement entirely supplanted by True Shooting Percentage.

    The GOAT offensive season would be determined with some measurement that takes both True Shooting Percentage and scoring volume into account, while also giving some credit for assists and offensive rebounds.
     
  8. Alvin Choo

    Alvin Choo Member

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    Someone really need to start a stat where FTs for fouls not leading to basket to count as 1 FGA.
     
  9. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    Hand-checking would have zero effect on Harden, Durant and Curry, today. Can you tell me why?

    And Jordan had the massive advantage of illegal defense rules, which allowed for clear-outs with no help-defense sagging into the lane. Today, you routinely see 3 guys on the strong side against side PnRs. That's illegal back in the day. Gobert dropping into the lane was also illegal. Most all the 2.9 help defenses of today were illegal.
     
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  10. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    what would be the purpose of that? So, if I get fouled on a shot, I get penalized as much as Corey Brewer missing a wide open three?

    Harden scores more layups on drives than anyone in the league, by a big margin. He scores. That's not an easy thing to do when the defense is keyed on you. Yet, the media has ppl believing the guy who makes the most layups on drives is only doing that to draw fouls, to the point you want a new stat to penalize him for getting fouled.

    unreal.
     
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  11. coyotetex

    coyotetex Member

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    PEER Review???!?! Really?

    You may literally be the most obnoxious and self important d-bag on the planet. I am working on a top 20 all time d-bag ranking list and a Douchie Comment per Clever Post Attempt rating and will get back to you with where you rank once the data are all in. I am quite certain you are right up there.

    Points from Free Throws are automatically incorporated into PPFGA. You divide all points (including FTs) by FGAs to derive the result which doesn’t need any other metric to illustrate scoring efficiency.

    Scoring points is the ultimate goal of basketball. The final score doesn’t care how the points are scored. If you want to measure how great a player is at scoring points (and thereby contributing to Wins) then you don’t discount FTs.

    And once more /ignore
     
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  12. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Contributing Member
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    didn't realize we were all writing for Science magazine :p
     
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  13. Caesar

    Caesar Member

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    Harden's my MVP again. Let's hope we can do these stat comparisons again after a full season. Were only at late Dec. Let's bump the updated numbers at the end of every month till the season ends!
     
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  14. YaoMing#1

    YaoMing#1 Member

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    I think Jordan’s better than harden so I’m not going there but Jordan wasn’t a great leader in 89 he was coming into his own Forsure and that might have been his most complete season with the 8 rebounds and 8 assists both career highs.

    The next season when he got Phil he became the MJ goat and really started winning big. Of course he was in the playoffs a lot those years with Doug Collins but they were not going deep in the playoffs.

    MJ was a better defender than Harden but I’d also argue that with Harden’s size and strength, if he was allowing to hand check he’d be considered a very good defender.

    Harden is the best offensive player of this era after Lebron, I don’t think that’s really a question anymore. He’s also a serious candidate already for top 10 offensive player off alltime imo.

    If he can win 2 chips I think we can seriously have the convo of if he’s the 2nd best SG of alltime.

    I love Kobe but I think the way Harden controls games and scores at will but also like Lebron makes the right play over and over again depending on how the defense is playing with him is unlike anyone in the nba outside of king James.

    It’s funny to think but I actually think Houston has a better shot to win the title this year compared to last and its only because Harden is hands down the single biggest force in the league right now.
     
  15. Alvin Choo

    Alvin Choo Member

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    Why would you be thinking its to penalized Harden? Getting foul while attempting to shoot is still a field goal attempt right? I'm not talking about miss shots, i'm just saying its a field goal attempt.

    True, his PPA, might take a dip, but who looks at that? Harden is putting up 30ppg!!!
     
  16. Alvin Choo

    Alvin Choo Member

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    Why would you be thinking its to penalized Harden? Getting foul while attempting to shoot is still a field goal attempt right? I'm not talking about miss shots, i'm just saying its a field goal attempt.

    True, his PPA, might take a dip, but who looks at that? Harden is putting up 30ppg!!!
     
  17. DavidRocket

    DavidRocket Member

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    Just curious why do you think Harden is the 2nd best offensive player in this era behind LeBron? I would take Harden over LeBron for pure offensive prowess every time. I don’t need to bring up stats or advanced metrics, but just my simple eye test the past few seasons tells me all I need to know.
     
  18. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    FGAs are tracked purely for the fan. They are tracked to see how well a player shoots when the defender doesn't do something illegal to prevent a fair shot at the basket. Fans don't want misses due to fouls to interfere with stats regarding pure ability to shoot. For fans who want to give more credit for a Three, eFG% counts a 3 as 1.5 FGMs vs just 1 FGA.

    What are you trying to solve by lowering the FG% of guys who get fouled?

    If you insist to track everything as a FGA, then for each FT made on a shooting foul, why not give the player .5 FGMs. Shouldn't that solve whatever you're trying to solve?

    btw: many fouls are an easy 2, such that the defender doesn't actually allow a shot. Or, on drives, the defender rakes an arm such that a shot can't really occur, or one hand is knocked away from the ball, or the ball is knocked away, but with contact. Those fouls don't happen to ppl who don't drive much, or don't play under the basket.

    If Harden was never fouled, he likely would have a soaring FG%, because he'd get to the basket cleanly much, much more often.

    Fans actually think his FG% would go down, I guess, as if he's trying to bail himself out of being blocked, or never was planning to shoot regardless.​
     
    #58 heypartner, Dec 27, 2018
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2018
  19. BigSexy

    BigSexy Contributing Member

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    People are losing sight of the fact that Harden's season is being compared to Michael Freakin Jordan, arguably the GOAT. Who gives a .... about whether it's better or not lol..... Lets just appreciate one of the best offensive seasons in the history of this game.
     
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  20. csj

    csj Member

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    OK, I don't disagree. I only made the comparison due to the obvious similarity of Jordan 89 and current Harden in the provided stats. The claim was that Harden was having the best year ever when Jordan had a similar year nearly 30 years ago (before his peak). Also, Jordan 89 was not the best offensive year of all time either. I'm not usually one to proclaim Jordan's virtues, just making the point that OP's own data disproves his claim.
     

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