[Official] Astros Off Season

And the biggest media marketing capabilities outside of NY. The state income tax crap is so insignificant to superstars.

 

Clutchfans had about 50 threads a week for several months with the dream of adding some washed up superstar to the Rockets. The fact that Harper signing with Houston is even remotely a chance boggles my mind. I guess the reason the board isn't on fire is because this has to be such long odds.

 

Michael Redd?

 

Astros forum is exponentially more civilized than the GARM

 

Eat a dick!!

 

It would a massive surprise if the Astros signed Harper.... there is a better chance that the Rockets somehow trade for an all star level player.

I am not trying to be a downer, but it just isn't something worth thinking about.

 

For NBA players, maybe... The NBA is a global organization. How many guys in South Africa are rocking a Harper jersey? With a guy (in the MLB) expecting to land a contract in the $300-$400 MILLION dollar range, it's not insignificant. On a $100 Million deal and less... sure. You can live with that. Harper currently has the largest MLB endorsement deal (in the history of the MLB) at $1 Million a year (plus a little more from New Era and Gatorade) - he'll be paying about $5 Million a year in STATE income tax alone. Going to be hard to make that up.

The guys that have opportunities to sign multi-hundred million dollar deals haven't done so in CA (for the most part). Curry is the only notable exception I can think of off hand - he more than makes up for that in endorsements. Trout's $145 Million deal is fully half of what Harper is going to get. Paying $5 Million a year to the State, ONT TOP of what you're paying to Uncle Sugar in Federal taxes (about 37% for Harper) adds up pretty quickly. Here's a breakdown SI did a couple of days ago:

 

It's been on my mind since around July, and it doesn't help that the Astros almost landed him during the deadline.

Ugh, I hate the Nats ownership for this. As long as he lands with a non-contender, I'm good.

 

In basketball and football big media markets matter. In baseball not as much. Baseball players do not get anywhere near the sponsorship/endorsement money compared to NFL and NBA players. That 13% tax might not be made up through increased endorsement deals by going to LA vs Houston.

 

I would argue it's exactly the opposite. The larger the deal, the less the state income tax matters because it's more about the top line number than the actual cash. On a smaller deal, taxes might actually affect your life. At $300MM, it just doesn't impact the player as much - his goal may be more about signing the biggest deal ever and the status that comes with that rather than the actual amount he ends up with.

In terms of Crane adding payroll, I think adding payroll while the Astros are good is very different than committing to adding payroll for the next 10 years. Have any of these contracts ever worked out? A-Rod lived up to all the expectations and still his team had to pay to get rid of him. There was the talk that the Yankees wanted to move Stanton this year, despite him being 28 and one year removed from an MVP type year and them wanting to sign a Stanton-type player (Machado, Harper). These deals just never seem to work out the way the teams wanted - even the 6 or 7 year ones end up a mess, let alone a 10 year deal. I would stay far, far away.

 

Getting him at the deadline would have been a lot of fun.

 

Similar arguments were made for why the Astros wouldn't offer Altuve an extension... but they did.

These windows of having young, talented, MVP-caliber type players all together don't come around all that often. The reason the Astros could conceivably go for a player like Harper (or why they secured Altuve) are simply to optimize their chances in the now.... all the while maintaining the farm and keeping options open for the future to try and prevent bottoming out.

I'm sure if agents were amenable to having their clients sign 1 year deals, fiscally responsible teams would be all over it... but that isn't prevalent in the professional sports landscape (where guys' career, and earning potential, could end with one freak play).

 

I get that. But he could sign that deal (largest in MLB history) in any number of markets and earn $25-$50 Million more over the course of his contract. I think that amount of money is more significant than some folks seem to believe. It's life changing money, even for a guy that's making multiples of that.

I'd agree. You're a winner in the short term, but it will severely handicap your franchise for years, if not decades. I hope the Astros kick the tires, so that they can say they did, and bow out.

 

Not true at all.

Bigger media markets matter even more in baseball. Baseball local media deals are huge.... an in an uncapped league, it's why the biggest payrolls are usually from the teams with the biggest media deals.

The biggest payroll teams are also the ones that can afford to both sign a huge player and then spend money on other needs elsewhere... whereas a mid to small market team has to cut costs in other areas, or have a whole lot of homegrown talent filling out the roster, to absorb the larger deals (and if they're not contending, they immediately look to trade the high cost players).

 

I think the recent prevalence of opt-outs (see Kershaw and JD Martinez) makes these megadeals a lot less risky. On the surface it seems like the opt out only favors the player, but if the deal is structured properly it can really just be a way for both sides to mitigate risk and effectively shorten a contract.

Some team will probably straight up guarantee Harper $350M+ over 10 years. But a front loaded deal with an opt out may give a 2nd tier market team like Houston a chance to make a competitive offer without burdening the franchise with a potential albatross contract.

 

Do you have any inside info (that you can share) about what types of prospects we were willing to give up there? I'd be curious what his cost as a rental was.

 

Supposedly Bukauskas and Stubbs.

 

According to Forbes Mike Trout makes 2.5 million in endorsements and Clayton Kershaw makes 750k. Justin Verlander makes a million.

Trout makes 33.25 in salary. The state tax eats up his endorsement money and then some.

 

He was referring to the market meaning less to the player not the teams.