MLBTR came out with their projected arbitration salaries for 2019: Gerrit Cole – $13.1MM Roberto Osuna – $6.5MM Collin McHugh – $5.4MM Carlos Correa – $5.1MM Lance McCullers – $4.6MM Will Harris – $3.6MM Ryan Pressly – $3.1MM Brad Peacock – $2.9MM Jake Marisnick – $2.4MM Chris Devenski – $1.4MM They have been very accurate in the past. So it looks like Harris will have his option declined and be offered arbitration (he is well worth $3.6M). None of those guys look like a bad value. If they need to shed salary, the worst value contracts they have are Smith, Reddick, and Gurriel, but I don’t see any of those guys being moved, although Smith is probably the most likely. So if they went with all in-house options for their opening day 25 man roster, payroll would be ~$125M: Guaranteed: ~$78M (7 players) Arb: ~$42M (9 players) Pre-Arb: ~$5M (9 players) I’d say there’s plenty of room to extend one of the core (Bregman, Correa, or Springer) and add a few players from the outside. $175M payroll should be nothing for a mid-market team coming off 2 deep playoff runs.
I think about 50 mil will be spent on top of arbitration increases. Marwin, Maldonado & Morton are all probably in the 10-15 mil yr area. And I think Cole makes the most sense to extend first and foremost. Correa and Bregman are still 4+ years from free agency, Springer will be 30+ and may not break the bank, JV and Morton are at the point where I think they take shorter term deals and take it year by year. Would like to see this Catchers: Maldonado, Stassi IF: Yuli, Altuve, Correa, Bregman, Marwin, White OF: Springer, Reddick, Marisnick, Kemp, Tucker/Straw SP: JV, Cole, Morton, McCullers, one of Whitley/James/Valdez/C Perez, etc Bullpen: Osuna, Rondon, Pressly, McHugh, Devo, Sipp (re-signed) or C Perez as the LH specialist A spot amongst Smith, Harris, Peacock, James, etc
I don’t think Maldonado is worth anywhere near $15M/yr. Marwin might get that much but I don’t think it should be from Houston. Morton is well worth $15-20M next season. I don’t see Luhnow giving $150M to Cole. I don’t think Bregman (too far away) or Correa (coming off a down year) are great extension candidates. Springer makes some sense if he’s willing to give up the rest of his prime to line his contract up with Altuve’s (2024) for a reasonable price. I agree with your $50M number and here’s how I’d spend it: $15M Charlie Morton $15M Nelson Cruz (replaces Gattis/Marwin) $8M Martin Maldonado $10M Zach Britton (replaces Smith/Sipp) $7M JT Realmuto trade (replaces McCann/Stassi) -$5M trade Joe Smith for a prospect (eat $3M to improve the return) Opening day 40 man roster: C Realmuto (for James, C Martin, Stassi, and Bukauskas) 1B White 2B Altuve SS Correa 3B Bregman RF Reddick CF Springer LF Tucker DH Cruz Bench: Gurriel, Maldonado, Marisnick Rotation: Verlander, Cole, McCullers, Morton, C Perez* Bullpen: Devenski, Peacock, Harris, Rondon, McHugh, Britton, Pressly, Osuna Optioned: Stubbs, Arauz, Davis, Fisher, Straw, F Valdez, Armenteros, Thornton, Rodgers, Deetz, Guduan, Gustave, R Ferrell, Abreu 60 day DL: Martes Traded for prospects: Smith, Reed, Kemp *open competition in spring, Whitley can come up when another year of control is secured That’s probably the most stacked roster yet.
**** it- if we win another title go the internal option for replacement and just put it in a giant piggy bank that’s says Bregman Correa Cole and springer extension. Trade McHugh. Decline Harris option, fix devo, move Yuli and Reddick and Smith and reset/ resign any of Cole, JV, Springer, Correa and Bregman as you can. Trade Lance if you can get a decent package of a top 50 guy, a top 100 guy and 2 lotto tickets you like. You’d have enough to compete in 2019 (maybe not as the favorite but as a favorite) while resetting your window for basically all of the 2020’s. If Correa doesn’t have any interest in re-signing and says no way move him for a massive haul as he’d have 3 years of cheap control at 24 years old. Ask LA Dodger why they’d give in prospects for him. Or Cubs. Or some other big market team in the national league with big payrolls and good farm system (maybe philly)
I like your roster, a lot. It’s very present oriented though. I realize people will hate my suggestion. I’m not even pounding on the table I’m just suggesting a different option where you can go from “absurdly stacked right now” to take a ste back, use the last years of financial flexibility to lock in a baseline expectation of making the playoffs for 7 or 8 years and then go from there with player development and betting on the FO ability to judge talent to keep the minor league pipeline working strong and us as a contender for the foreseeable future. In my world I want the following guys to be Astros until the year in question Bregman- 2030 Altuve- 2028 (provided next deal is for fair market like 4 for 50 that is a pat on the head but recognizes declining skills) JV- 2024 (3 year deal after 2019 if he’s still good at 3/75 with a couple option years at 10 or 15 after that) Cole-2025 (7 year deal this offseason) Springer- 2024 Correa- 2018 (unless open to extension- massive haul) LMJ- 2018 (no extension talk period) Reddick- 2018- eat a little salary for prospect Yuli- 2018- eat a little salary for prospects Keuchel- QO figure he leaves McHugh-2018- flip for a high floor guy and a couple A ball guys) Harris- decline option Smith-trade throw in money for prospect value Rondon- trade throw in money for prospect value So then your 25 man becomes JV, Cole, James, Peacock, (Whitley- once you monkey with his clock) Perez, Valdez, Osuna, Presley, Devo, Deetz, Thornton, Armientos White, Altuve, Bregman, Davis, Reed, Stassi, Stubbs, Tucker, Springer, kemp, marisnick, Fisher Farm system should then be loaded with JB Bukakus, the big Cuban who I always blank on his name, plus what should be a massive haul from trading off Correa, LMJ, Reddick with cash, Yuli with cash, Smith and Rondon with cash each. That’s a big league team where everything could go right and you win 96 games or things could go a little bad and you might be lookkng at 86 wins or making a deadline deal or two if player development stalls, and might win 86 games or something. If you did that it’d be sunk or swim time for Davis, Reed, Fisher and stassi. I’d give them each the first half of the season AB’s literally every day and re-evaluate. Likely 1 of them is a keeper and the other 3 you just flush a d give the next guy up a chance Not only would people hate this but they’d say- why in the hell would you do this? I think it would guarantee 5 All Star types that we get the rest of their primes, and give player development the chance to add in another 3 or 4 potential championship caliber players, and then tons of chances to develop more guys.
Try to extend Bregman, Correa, Springer, and/or Cole Sign starter to 2-3 deal. Prefer Morton. Sign Grandal. Trade Smith, Devenski for prospects. Trade for Edwin Diaz QO to Keuchel Go trolling for an awesome trade depending on who is available.
Want to ask a question and felt like this would be a good place to ask. I literally love Verlander and would love to see him go into the Hall Of Fame as an Astro. But with such a big part of his career in Detroit is there any scenario that he would choose to go in as an Astro rather then a Tiger ? I am wondering short of pitching as an Astro into his low 40s what would you think in his mind convinces him to go in as an Astro? Thanks for any input
He needs 2 no hitters in this World Series. And the ALCS MVP... too bad Bregman will win that though this year.
I love JV, but he was drafted by the Tigers, and spent over a decade there, throwing two no hitters, winning a Cy Young, a Triple Crown, and an MVP. Him going into the Hall as an Astro would be like, say, Berkman and/or Oswalt going into the Hall as Rangers (both signed with them near the end of their careers, let's say they experienced a big renaissance in Arlington and then stayed a few more years to build stronger Cooperstown cases). That would be like robbery. Let's extend Cole, and he can be the one with an Astros cap.
Three World Series Championships and 1 Cy Young. Tough for him not to go in as a Tiger. I can't see a key cog of a dynasty not wearing the cap of the dynasty, though. I don't think he's allowed to pick though.
Yep. And short of him pitching until he’s 42 or 43 and winning a Cy and a couple more WS I can’t inagine the HOF gives even a moment of thought to putting an Astros hat on his plaque.
