[2017 NFL Draft/1-12] Deshaun Watson

coachbadlee · Aug 23, 2018

Nimo said: ↑

It's worse than you think
https://cowboyswire.usatoday.com/20...ble-6-game-stretches-to-cowboys-dak-prescott/
(I know its comparing to Dak Prescott's six game stretch but some of these are amazing. Just look at the stats)
1. Brian Griese (2000)
In Griese’s second season, he started off even hotter than what Prescott has. Griese passed for 1,720 yards with 14 touchdowns against a single interception, with a 63.1 completion percentage and a 8.0 ANY/A. He ended up starting 10 games that year and going 7-3, leading the league in passer rating at 102.9. However he never matched a stretch like that again in his career, and ended up with a barely above water career 119:99 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His career ANY/A was just 5.37.

2. Matt Schaub (2009)
Schaub’s third season at the helm of the Houston Texans started off insanely hot. He passed for 1,810 yards with 14 touchdown passes against five interceptions. His 65.3 percent completions earned him a passer rating of 102.7 over that stretch with a ANY/A of 7.9. Schaub would have a couple good stretches over the rest of his career, but nothing came close to how he performed out the gate in 2009.

3. Kyle Orton (2009)
Schaub wasn’t the only one who started 2009 on fire. Orton did the same for Chicago, passing for 1,465 yards with nine scoring throws and just one interception. 63.9 completion percentage led to 100.1 passer rating and an ANY/A of 7.6. Those numbers far outweighed the player Orton settled into being, a career passer rating of just 81.2 and ANY/A of just 5.5 per dropback.

4. Robert Griffin III (2012)
Griffin’s top stretch came in his rookie year, but at the end of the season. In this frame, as well as in his stats, he is the closest comparison statistically. Regardless, he stands as a very precautionary tale. From games 10-16 Griffin threw 12 touchdown passes against just two interceptions, completing 65.8 percent of his throws for 1,322 yards. His passer rating of 114.0 during this stretch is unbelievable. Griffin’s ANY/A was a mind-boggling 8.38. It should be noted that Griffin’s first major injury occurred during this stretch.

Griffin’s stats have bottomed out since then. He hasn’t been able to achieve a ANY/A over 6.0 since and has a 20:19 touchdown-to-interception ratio since the 2013 season.

5. Brian Hoyer (2015)
Hoyer might not belong on this list as he seems to be undervalued by the league. After the 2014 season, Hoyer took his talents from Cleveland to Houston, where he settled in nicely as the Texans starter. During one particular six-game stretch he was highly impressive. From October 18 through December 12, Hoyer went 129 out of 212 for 1,422 yards and 13 touchdown passes against just four picks. His passer rating was just 93.3 though and his ANY/A was just 6.3 so outside his TD:INT ratio, he didn’t stray too far from his career averages of a career 84.8 passer rating and 6.22 ANY/A.

He’s been on terrible teams and excelled statistically at each stop, and actually winning in Cleveland. No one wins in Cleveland.

6. Derek Anderson (2007)
Cleveland again. Anderson started but took over for good in the second game of 2007 when he passed for five scores. Later that year, he had an incredible six-game stretch where he completed 62.6 percent of his passes (129 for 206) for 1,507 yards, 11 touchdowns and three interceptions. His passer rating was 96.5 and ANY/A was 7.44. His four-year career in Cleveland ended with an ANY/A of just 4.88. He has since become a journeyman with a career passer rating of 76.1 – nowhere near the heights he reached in 2007.
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Only one of these guys was a rookie and still he didn't do as well as Watson.
Deshaun may not be the GOAT yet but he is the GROAT.

zeeshan2 · Aug 23, 2018

"It’s a lot of fun to coach a guy like Deshaun," O’Brien said. "He soaks up the knowledge, but then he has his own ideas [and] his own creativity on what he sees on different packages that we do, which we really enjoy talking about those things. When you have a guy like Deshaun, you can be creative because of his skill set.When Clemson coach Dabo Swinney recalls the first time he saw Watson back on the field after he tore his ACL, he says he quickly became aware he wasn’t going to have to ease his quarterback into practice.

"I saw a player that went and took the field with no fear, and he was confident in his knee," Swinney said. "And I’m sure he’ll be the same this year. He was ready to go. Literally. We had a really tough schedule right out of the gate and he was full speed. I saw it in camp early on. He wasn’t hesitant at all."

And now, Watson says, "I don’t even think about [my knee]."According to backup quarterback Brandon Weeden, O’Brien’s playbook hasn’t changed that much since Watson took the reins. However, the Texans might be more aggressive in utilizing every aspect of O’Brien’s scheme now that Watson is more comfortable in his second year.

"It’s just finding what Deshaun [Watson]’s most comfortable with," Weeden said. "And if you watch the games that Deshaun played in last year, you can really tell that they kind of tailored [the offense to] what he was comfortable with … kind of molding it that way.

"The guy’s so talented. He can make all the throws, he can do everything you need him to do in this offense."To make Watson more comfortable, the coaches studied his snaps from last season to see what they could add. And O’Brien said there were a lot of plays they didn’t get to use last season before Watson was injured. The Texans pulled ideas from several different offenses at the college and pro level, and O’Brien talked to Watson about plays he’d run in the past.O’Brien has been hoping to do more with his offense since he took over as head coach in 2014, but before Watson, he didn’t have a quarterback who could execute.
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zeeshan2 · Aug 23, 2018

The good news is that I think Watson should be better at avoiding interceptions as his career goes along -- and even as early as 2018. For one, two of his interceptions came on Hail Mary attempts, which shouldn't be treated as meaningful. Watson had two dropped interceptions, per FO, so his adjusted interception rate is in the same ballpark, but the added interceptions for other quarterbacks push him to 29th-best in the league, ahead of seven other passers.

In watching those picks, there's a line running through the decisions: Watson often got greedy and tried to make off-schedule throws without setting his feet and getting his body moving forward and/or tried to squeeze his passes into impossible windows. He scrambles around the pocket before making a late throw into the end zone. He rushes a throw under pressure and sails a pick-six to Jason McCourty. The Texans run play-action and roll Watson out to the boundary and flood it with receivers, leaving no room and a pick for Richard Sherman when Watson throws off his back foot.

Those are the sorts of things rookies do. Watson's decision-making should get better as he continues to grow, just as Wentz's did a year ago.

Bill O'Brien should (hopefully) be more aggressive
The Texans coach deserves credit for reshaping his offense around Watson's skills, but his late-game decision-making didn't fit the offensive juggernaut O'Brien had constructed. You can't buy a Ferrari and spend your entire drive across the country in the right lane. In doing so, O'Brien cost the Texans possible wins against the Patriots and Seahawks.

Five weeks later, O'Brien got conservative in a different way. Watson ran for a first down to get the ball to his own 20-yard line at the two-minute warning with a four-point lead. The Seahawks had all of their timeouts, but one first down would have basically wrapped up the game. In a game in which Watson had thrown for 407 yards and run for 62, O'Brien ... handed the ball to Lamar Miller three times. The Seahawks used their three timeouts, and on fourth-and-2 from his own 28-yard line, O'Brien decided that the chances of punting with his defense keeping the Seahawks from scoring a touchdown were better than his chances of either converting a fourth-and-two or stopping the Seahawks from punching the ball in the end zone from 28 yards out. The Seahawks scored in three plays.

Doug Pederson's success going for it on fourth down in 2017 should encourage coaches with great offenses to trust them on fourth-and-short in key moments. (Likewise, as Pederson noted, coaches should learn from Doug Marrone's letting the Patriots off the hook in the AFC Championship Game.) Coaches work too hard during the week to hurt themselves with poor decisions on fourth-and-short. Yes, they're going to take some heat if they go for it late in a game and the decision doesn't go their way. But Pederson showed throughout last season that the upside is worth the risk. The Texans have to place their faith in Watson & Co.

Watson's receivers did incredible work
As much as Watson's interception rate made him look like a quarterback out of the 1970s, his average pass distance only furthers the story. Watson averaged a whopping 11.1 air yards per throw during his time as a starter, which is something out of a Joe Namath stat line. That's the third-deepest average pass in a 200-attempt season since 2006, and the two guys who topped Watson were famously unique: Tim Tebow (2011) and Michael Vick (2006).

Typically, when you see a passing offense with a lot of deep passes, you get a lot of drops. Receivers dropped 6.6 percent of Tebow's passes and 7.0 percent of Vick's throws during their respective seasons. They're not alone. When you look at the quarterbacks whose average pass distance has traveled 10 yards in the air or more since 2006 before Watson, the average drop rate for those quarterbacks was 4.9 percent.

Watson's drop rate was 1.0 percent. One percent! Part of that is the nature of a smaller sample, but 1.0 percent is the lowest drop rate we've seen for any quarterback with 200 or more pass attempts since 2006, when ESPN's drop data starts. The previous low was 1.7 percent, coincidentally set by the Texans' Matt Schaub in 2013. Marcus Mariota and Matt Ryan were at 1.8 percent in 2016. None of those passers was throwing anywhere near as deep as Watson was last season. There's no way that's going to keep up in 2018.

Watson was incredible on play-action
This shouldn't be a surprise given Watson's abilities as a runner. Opposing defenses simply couldn't deal with Houston's play-action game last season. When he faked a handoff, Watson averaged 10.3 yards per attempt, with a 124.3 passer rating and a staggering 95.6 Total QBR. The latter number led the league and was the fourth-best QBR by a passer with 50 or more play-action attempts since 2007.

Watson should still be effective on play-action in 2018, but it will be tough for the second-year passer to be as good.
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zeeshan2 · Aug 23, 2018

Let’s examine…..

1. CLEVELAND BROWNS – Myles Garrett, DE, Texas A&M
12. CLEVELAND BROWNS – Traded back with Texans for 25th pick in 2017 (Jabrill Peppers, S, Michigan) and 4th pick in 2018 (Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State)
During Watson’s six-game run last year, the Regret Factor had to be at about a 13 on a scale of 1 to 10, as Browns fans were watching DeShone Kizer throw interceptions at about the same rate Watson threw touchdowns. Now, with Baker Mayfield in the fold, the regret is mitigated slightly, but still… you essentially traded Deshaun Watson for Peppers and Ward. I mean, YIKES.
WATSON REGRET FACTOR, BROWNS: 8.4

2. CHICAGO BEARS – Mitchell Trubisky, QB, North Carolina
The Bears gave up a ton of draft capital to move up up one spot and get their hands on Trubisky. It’s still early, but he clearly hasn’t taken to the NFL game as fast as Watson. (Who, in the last few years, as a rookie, has?) This past weekend, Bears fans were tweeting this play out quite a bit….
WATSON REGRET FACTOR, BEARS: 6.7

3. SAN FRANCISCO 49ers – Solomon Thomas, DE, Stanford
The 49ers were able to get Jimmy Garoppolo, another six start phenom like Watson, for the low, low price of a second round pick sent to the Patriots. I think they feel fine about their quarterback situation.
WATSON REGRET FACTOR, 49ers: 1.4

4. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS – Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU
Fournette is the fulcrum of the Jags’ offense, but that’s because their quarterback situation remains positively Bortle-icious. Translation — terrible. Imagine the Jags with Deshaun Watson under center and THAT defense? Of course, not all situations are equal, and it’s fair to wonder "Would Watson thrive with Doug Marrone like he does Bill O’Brien?" Probably, I think Watson is coach-proof.
WATSON REGRET FACTOR, JAGUARS: 7.9

5. TENNESSEE TITANS – Corey Davis, WR, Western Michigan
Davis may turn out to be a terrible pick, but the Titans were not taking a QB here. Still, if I were a Titans fan, and I watched Watson dissect my defense for 50 points last season, I’d feel a little nervous about the next decade or so.
WATSON REGRET FACTOR, TITANS: 6.8

6. NEW YORK JETS – Jamal Adams, S, LSU
Adams is going to be a good player, and the Jets are moving along with Sam Darnold under center. The rookie out of USC has looked good so far in the preseason. But MAN, Deshaun Watson? In New York? Until I see Darnold win games consistently, if I were a Jets fan, this would still irk me a little bit. A lot, actually.
WATSON REGRET FACTOR, JETS: 9.2

7. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS – Mike Williams, WR, Clemson
Philip Rivers isn’t getting any younger, and Watson might have been someone who people would actually pay to see on the B-team in Los Angeles. They can’t fill a soccer stadium right now, so filling a new football stadium, well, its not gonna look good on TV, let’s just leave it at that.
WATSON REGRET FACTOR, CHARGERS: 5.0

8. CAROLINA PANTHERS – Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford
The only thing that creeps this Regret Factor toward a 5.0 is geography. Watson is wildly popular in the Carolinas. But they’re set at QB with Cam Newton, and McCaffrey looks like the real deal.
WATSON REGRET FACTOR, PANTHERS: 4.6

9. CINCINNATI BENGALS – John Ross, WR, Washington
With Andy Dalton, the Bengals are a classic case of going all-in on a quarterback who can have you straddle the 8-8 fence every season, but can’t carry you to much more. To add insult to injury, Ross might be the worst first round pick in this draft. Oh, you Bengals. Good to have you back among the sucky again.
WATSON REGRET FACTOR, BENGALS: 9.6

10. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS – Patrick Mahomes, QB, Texas Tech
The Chiefs like their guy. It will be interesting to see how Mahomes adapts to being the Day One starter, and adapts to playing in an NFLoffense after playing in the Texas Tech scheme in college. One thing we do know… Mahomes can throw it FAR…
WATSON REGRET FACTOR, CHIEFS: 3.1

11. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS – Marshon Lattimore, CB, Ohio State
Drew Brees will step aside when he chooses to, but man, can you imagine Brees passing the torch to Watson? Drafting a Pro Bowler in Lattimore cushions that blow, though. (Also, Brees is still tossing it around at a high level.)
WATSON REGRET FACTOR, SAINTS: 4.1
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theimpossibles1 · Aug 23, 2018

"Texans QB Deshaun Watson isn't just back to his pre-injury self — he's even better"
USA Today

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/1068410002

"Most every team brims with optimism this time of year, but the Texans’ hopes seem to be justified."

Fulgore · Aug 23, 2018

theimpossibles1 said: ↑

"Texans QB Deshaun Watson isn't just back to his pre-injury self — he's even better"
USA Today

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/1068410002
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Now that’s scary

zeeshan2 · Aug 25, 2018

zeeshan2 · Sep 22, 2018

Can you imagine Mahomes on this team?:

To get Mahomes, Dorsey, the man in charge of actually working the phones, had to get creative. The Chiefs were selecting at No. 27, and thanks to the league-wide connections of Reid, Dorsey and Veach, they knew a handful of other teams were just as interested in Mahomes as they were. The New Orleans Saints, picking at No. 11, brought Mahomes in for a pre-draft visit. The Cleveland Browns (at No. 12) and the Arizona Cardinals (at No. 13) worked him out. The Houston Texans were picking 25th and sniffed around about a trade-up for him.

Cabott and Steinberg were careful to never reveal the Chiefs’ intense interest in Mahomes, lest they screw up the chance for their player to land in what they deemed an ideal situation, with a quarterback guru in Reid, stable ownership in the Hunt family and a plethora of offensive skill players.

“They seemed pretty laser-focused on Patrick,” Steinberg said. “We were more than happy to encourage their interest, and we kept their confidence and never said a word publicly about it because had we said anything, it would have put them in a compromised position to make a trade. If other teams knew they really, really wanted Patrick, they would make a trade difficult.”
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https://sports.yahoo.com/chiefs-finally-found-franchise-quarterback-patrick-mahomes-165452074.html

conquistador#11 · Sep 22, 2018

though mahomes is who I originally wanted on draft day, I've grown to love Watson. can you imagine KC's o- line here and our line in KC?
I also like their head coach more for the regular season. He truly is a qb whisperer nothing agains B.o.b, I'm sure b.o.b brought out a lot of good anger from TB12.

Wattafan · Sep 22, 2018

conquistador#11 said: ↑

though mahomes is who I originally wanted on draft day, I've grown to love Watson. can you imagine KC's o- line here and our line in KC?
I also like their head coach more for the regular season. He truly is a qb whisperer nothing agains B.o.b, I'm sure b.o.b brought out a lot of good anger from TB12.
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Me too. Mahomes may also get worked over when there is more tape on him just like DW4.
I am confident DW4 will rebound - he was too good at college and showed us plenty last season.
Just needs some experience and ongoing coaching.
Look at Bortles - took 4 seasons but he will be competent.

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