we finished 1 game out of the playoffs...one game behind the Cubs, who went on to the NLCS and choked up a series they should have won.
Wrong. The Astros phythagorean record was 94-68. Or 7 games better than their actual record. In fact, they had the best run differential in the National League outside of Atlanta last year. They were statistically the 2nd best team in the NL, even with all their injuries and lack of career years from almost everyone. Want more statistical proof how odd last season was for Houston. They allowed fewer runs than the vaunted Cubs pitching staff and that's with Oswalt spending a large majority of the year on the DL, Miller struggling for much of the season, and relying on no names Jeriome Robertson and Ron Villone for not one, but two spots in their rotation. And you are going to sit here and tell me replacing Villone and Robertson with Clemens and Pettitte, doesn't do wonders for the pitching staff? I didn't even mention Oswalt should be healthy as he had offseason groin surgery to fix his problem and will be ready to go in spring training. Sure the Astros have questions regarding health, and seeing how Ensberg and Hidalgo and Redding fare trying for back to back quality seasons, plus how Dotel or Lidge do in the closers role replacing wagner. But what teams in the NL don't have major questions of their own. In Atlanta, they have lost Maddux, Lopez, Fick, and Sheffield, while only replacing them with the oft injured but highly talented JD Drew, Eli Marrero and John Thomson. That's called a big downgrade, even if Drew finally lives up to the hype. And the braves had numerous hitters like Giles and Lopez have career years last year so was unlikely even prior to Lopez and Sheffield leaving that they would score as many runs as they did a year ago. In Florida, Pudge Rodriguez is all but gone, Derrek Lee is a Cub and they lost other important pieces of their championship puzzle. Their very reliable 3rd starter from a year ago, Mark Redman, is in Oakland. They lost Braden Looper and Uggie Urbina to free agency and hope to replace them with Armando Benitez and Chad Fox. They still will be good, but they have plenty of question marks. In San Francisco, the Giants have upgraded at catcher by getting A.J. Pierzynski from the Twins, and should have a healthy Robb Nen ready to close games again this year. They lost Aurilia to seattle, and let Ponson walk, not to mention losing last year's fill in closer Tim Worrell. They better sign Maddux because if they think Tucker and Tomko are the answers, they are nuts. But as long as Bonds is around, they are still the team to beat in the West and a threat. Now to the teams who have improved this offseason in the NL outside of Houston. The Cubs: They add Derrek Lee and Latroy Hawkins to an already solid bunch. They are in on Rodriguez and Maddux as well. They, along with the Phillies, should present the biggest challenge to the Astros this year. But they too have questions. Can Moises Alou stay healthy again at his age? Will Ramirez put together back to back solid campaigns for the 1st time? How will Corey Patterson respond to ACL surgery especially since Lofton went to the Yankees? Can Matt Clement put together a season worthy of his talent, among others. At this point, the Astros rotation is at least the Cubs equal, and in my opinion is slightly better because Clement and Estes/Cruz have more to prove that the Astros back end starters do. If they land Maddux, then I give Chicago a slight edge but it's still very close. Offensively, they have Lee, Ramirez, Sosa, Patterson(if healthy) and Alou, but the Astros with Berkman, Bagwell, Kent, Hidalgo and Ensberg can match and beat them if both groups play up to their abilities and stay healthy. Both teams have soft hitting catchers and shortstops. And while the Cubs bullpen got better by adding Hawkins, at best it's a push with the Astros pen combo of Lidge and Dotel. Now to the Phillies: Philadelphia has added Wagner, Eric Milton, and Tim Worrell so far. They too have a strong pitching staff of Millwood, Wolf, Myers, Milton and Padilla, but it lacks the ace that the Cubs and Astros have. For that reason I rate it very slightly behind those two staffs. Offensively speaking, they have Thome, Abreu, Lieberthal, and Pat Burrell as their big boppers. Burrell has to rebound from a horrible 2003, and Lieberthal must stay healthy. Jimmy Rollins also needs to bounce back and their offense could improve depending on the strides youngsters Chase Utley, and Marlon Byrd make this season. If all goes right, they could have the best offense in the NL, but odds are it won't. The other offensive position should be filled by solid veteran David Bell. And while Wagner and Worrell will drastically help their bullpen woes, overall their pen isn't that strong, but it is improved from last year. Not improved enough to be above Houston's or Chicago's for overall depth though. As far as other contenders go, STL needs Maddux to really be a big time threat to the Cubs, Astros, and Phillies, the Dodgers would have to land Rodriguez to give Shawn Green protection, and Arizona needs a lot of things to go right just to contend. The Astros should be dueling it out with Chicago and Philadelphia for the NL crown, and to be honest, they have just as good a team if not better than the Phillies or Cubs if all three stay healthy and get typical production from their roster.
Hold on, we may not be talking about the same two guys. Did you SEE Dotel and Lidge last year?!? Specifically Dotel was absolutely OUT OF HIS MIND last year and really has been for the past few years. Ever since we moved him to the bullpen, he's been MONEY!! Hell, even when he was a starter for us, the first three innings of every one of his starts looked like he was gunning for a 27 K game. Invariably though, he would run out of gas and give up a 6 or 7 run 4th or 5th. He's a BORN closer and will absolutely thrive in the role. Did you notice how almost NOBODY b*tched too hard when Wags left for a 5th starter and prospects? As for Lidge, he did nothing but set up Dotel last year, so this year he'll do it in the 7th and 8th instead of the 6th and 7th. Lidge is going to be fine in Dotel's former role. I'm NOT worried about our bullpen. As for the offense, Bags did have 39 HR and 100 RBI last season and he showed no real signs of slowing down, he'll be fine. I expect Biggio to show his age, but I expect Kent will have a nice season, hopefully injury free. Lane can come in and pick up slack as the 4th outfielder and the increased AB's for Ensberg should improve our everyday 3B production. More than all of this though, is the attitude Roger adds to the team. Our regulars will feel like they have the upper hand in pitching matchups at least 4 out of every 5 games. That is absolutely INVALUABLE!! When we had the Unit, NOBODY thought we would lose on the days he pitched, and thus we almost never lost! If all the pitchers come through the spring looking strong, the boys will have that killer instinct that Astros teams in the past haven't had. We've got 2 world series winners, real game-changers in the post season, on our team now. DON'T underestimate that... this is going to be a very scary team. BTW, come on ya'll... DOTEL IS NASTY! I'm actually looking forward to seeing him come in, high socks & his fro spilling out of his hat, throwin that big leg kick up and blowin SMOKE by these fools!
yep. saw him the last time he closed, too, in 2000, blowing 7 with an ERA over 5. pitching the 8th and pitching the 9th are two distinctly different animals. i hope he's every bit as effective, but mastering one doesn't necessarily mean you'll automatically master the other. having a guy like wagner getting your back takes a lot of pressure off you. as for lidge - we'll see. he's had a history of arm trouble. and even if the guys ARE lights out, wagner/dotel/lidge is still better than dotel/lidge. now it's my turn: did you SEE bagwell last year? if that's not the very definition of slowing down.... yeah, hopefully. players don't ordinarily get healthier as they get older. that's asking a lot of 2 (relatively) unproven youngsters. the difference in the randy johnson of 1998 and roger clemens of 2004 is immeasureable. and attitude gets you this far; you still have to deliver. besides, you can't just count on attitude and not account for its absence. think of the luxury wagner provided this entire team, knowing if they took a lead into the ninth, they'd win more often than not. until dotel steps up, that'll be an issue. and the astros i've watched have never had a killer instinct. why don't we actually get into the postseason first.
You might also remember that he was a starter for a good part of that season, and not a very good one. That is where his era took a hit. He was actually quite good for someone who had never closed in his career. That is true, but Dotel was very effective in his few attempts at closing the last couple of years.
