Ben Taylor, the Thinking Basketball author who also did the excellent GOAT Top 40 series during this season, gives his preview of the series:
Pretty great preview. It’s funny because none of the data I’ve seen backs the Warriors winning at all, let alone decisively. The only thing that people use as a reason is “oh they’re just the Warriors and they’re going to come out hungry and angry”. That’s cute and all but you’ve had SEVERAL opportunities to show the world the Rockets aren’t on your level and every time you’ve tried....you failed.
Respek to OP and writer . I'm a huge theory nerd and think that this guy actually gives pretty insightful analysis . However , I think his harden comment and subsequent graph were designed to stir up hits and didn't come from a sound analytical perspective. He does mention that 6 games is a small sample size . But going beyond that , none of those games were playoff games . Furthermore , he says much of the drop off came from not shooting free throws ; but , one can clearly see looking at the graph the major dip in 3 point percentage.... which is highly variable. If you compound that with the volume that harden shoots threes , I think much of the drop in his points per 75 and ts efficiency is the result of that lowered 3 percentage. I think he is right that capela and tucker are going to be key for us . I think he is right that igoudala and green are going to be huge for them .
Regarding Harden, I dont think its fair to count the last time we played them, or the two times we played them last season because Harden was either injured or coming back from an injury.
I dun have anything against this but if we are going to be champions, those excuses have to stop though. He is coming off a flu, a smaller illness now and then. As much as I like Chris Paul and Ego, there is nobody on that team that has been as consistent offensively.
Really liked that article. Best video breakdown I've seen of the matchup. More depth in describing the very same plays other articles have used, including Coach Nick. Coach Nick does tend to talk fast and rush analysis. This article is a great complement to the two Nick videos wrt getting fockass'd as a fan I especially like how he compares what NOLA did or tried to do vs GSW defense in contrast to what Rockets can do with better playmakers. He's also the only person I've seen use that first vid of Green disrupting the lob to AD, yet correctly say that the lob itself had a lot to be desired, stuff Harden/Paul eat up. I've seen that vid used like 4 times so far as reason Green can stop Harden/Capela...Green IS great at it, though. One critique of the article, keep in mind when reading that, that Rockets just destroyed Gobert's DPOY ability to sag in the lane and disrupt lobs/layups off PnR. Green is smarter and more mobile, but Gobert has nearly a full foot longer reach. Least Taylor could have done was said that Harden/Paul and Capela are coming off 5 games of tuning their PnR attacks to Green's only equal.
Thats fair, no excuses this time. We literally do not have any. Just for the sake of argument I just wanted to point out that Harden was not in his best form in those games. This time there is nothing to fall back on, we either win or we dont.
Really was an amazing breakdown and article. My only critique, is the desire to “jab” harden about flopping and how he will for sure flop this series but how much? Why is that needed other than to paint James in a sour light? Otherwise, as with all of Bens work, it was greatly constructed and wildly informing.
Possibly the most in-depth and, more importantly, impartial preview of this series that is available.
Very reasonable, well-researched article. I'd agree with the take that the Warriors are (slightly) favored here, but that the Rockets have a real shot to advance. A lot will depend on which Harden shows up.
It will depend on which everyone shows up. It starts with Harden, but Capela and Gordon are huge. If Gordon re-discovers whatever he was eating for breakfast in October-December, he needs to start eating that again. Capela has the potential to be the a game-wrecker for Golden State. Tucker and Ariza's performances could even swing this series. All of these games SHOULD be close, it will just come down to which teams are shooting hot and cold on any given night. Four cold shooting nights and you're gone.
I agree with those that state Harden has no excuse this round. I personally believe MVP will be MVP to get the Rockets past the Worriers. It’s put up or shut up time for the Rockets. If their focus and intensity matches their hunger, Rockets will win no question. We will find out tomorrow night.
