Mike Greenberg: "Rockets/Warriors is going to be a disappointment"

I honestly think that he wants the Rockets to win or at least be competitive, but he's just discouraged by how much talent GS has and how ridiculous it was that they added KD to the best RS team of all time. I don't blame him.

 

BLAH. . BLAH. . 'Warriors are too good;. ... .BLAH, BLAH, 'Dynasty'. . .BLAH, BLAH 'Dream Team'
I sure hope we shut people like you up

 

Lol at paying attention to what that bum says

 

Like it or not, it’s why there is a frenzy of people in their bandwagon (Warriors)

The Rockets were built to bring the Warriors down. It’s not the other way around.

I’m 75% certain the Rockets take the series.

Morey is a fricken genius, never underestimate the mind of a motivated genius.

And by the way you can interpret what I say to suit your opinions. But don’t infer I’m a warriors fan, that’s not cool.

 

If it quacks like a duck and walks like a duck. . . .. it's probably a duck.
Then don't act so scared and talk up our opponents like they are unbeatable.
Sure makes one sound like a Warriors fan. But, glad you're on OUR SIDE.

 

Michelle Beadle's sarcasm isn't going over anyone's head. She's not piercing us with a rapier. She's swinging at our necks, over and over, with a dull, rusted broadsword. There's nothing subtle or complex there. She offers little more than thinly veiled snideness and fake laughter. But that's just my opinion. I won't question anyone's intelligence for liking her.

 

Yes Greenberg it will be a dissapointment to you and the rest of America that everyone's fan favorite team the Warriors just got their butts wooped by a scrappy team like the Rockets.

 

Meh, whatever floats his boat

 

I am amazed at how little actual analysis goes into any of these so-called "experts" opinions on the series. They spout forth narratives like "The Warriors get more open looks than any other team in the NBA" which is both provably false and doesn't actually tell you anything of substance.

Here are some stats that I find interesting and useful in understanding why the Rockets are so dangerous;

The Rockets scored 112 points in their GM5 win over Utah on 83 shots. GS scored 113 points in their GM5 win over N.O. on 99 shots.

The Warriors needed 16 more shots than the Rockets to score 1 more point. That's an astonishing stat. Especially considering the W's needed 99 shots against a team that is obviously inferior defensively (the Pels) than the one the Rockets faced (the Jazz).

How did the Ws get 99 shots (and 11 more than the Pelicans)? They won the battles for Rebounds (+8), Steals (+3) and Turnovers (+2) and their game had a faster pace than the Rox / Jazz.

Despite the faster pace (and as a result, more possessions for the W's), of the four western conference teams in Game 5s the Rockets were tied for 1st in Steals (10), 1st in Blocks (8), 1st in Turnovers (9) and 1st in defensive rebounding margin (+4).

If you scale the W's pace back to match the Rockets pace in Game 5, they would have scored 14 less points, or 99 points to the Rox 112.

What does this mean?

It means the Rockets are more efficient in key aspects of the game - points per possession and in all the secondary metrics that lead to more possessions than the opponent (Steals, DRB margin & Turnovers).

If you get more possessions (regardless of pace) and you score more points per possession, you win. Pure and simple.

The media is obsessed with passing and assists. Assists are fools gold. They neither increase the amount of points you score (a 2 pointer off an assist scores the same as a 2 pointer off of ISO) nor do they increase possession margin. In fact, in a pass happy offense like GS uses, more assists often equates to more turnovers.

Houston's advantage is hyper-efficient offense and defense that generates more possessions than their opponents and more points per possession. GS's counters this with extremely high shooting percentage from their big 3 (Curry, Thompson and Durant).

I believe that all Houston needs to do to beat GS is play the same brand of defense they did against Minn / Utah while improving their FG% by a just a few points. The efficiency of their offensive and defensive schemes is so powerful, that it can overcome almost anything. If you don't believe me, just look at the Rockets in Gm 4 v. Utah, where they shot 42% from the field and 26% from 3 and won by 13 POINTS (+3 DRB margin, +3 Steals, +4 Blocks, +3 Turnovers).

Go Rockets!

 

Brilliant post.

 

You nailed it on the head!

Rockets can win any matchup against the best of them by creating more possessions and playing good defense, which goes hand in hand. It’s not necessarily the Rockets offense that is key in the matchup, but more so the defense of creating more possessions. The one offensive stat we need to win is offensive rebounding. I agree with you that Rockets will need to hit their shots at a higher clip against a team like the Warriors.

 

Who are you and why don’t you post more?

 

Long time lurker. I'm CEO of a startup where one of my primary jobs is analyzing analytics from users on our platform, so I'm OBSESSED with stats and what they mean.

Blows my mind how resistant people are to Daryl Morey's stats based methodology given the fact that it clearly wins more games. Didn't someone once say winning is everything? And now we have idiots using the "eye test" (looking at YOU Stephen A) to argue against teams like the Rockets being great.

If the Warriors played Moreyball, they would probably go undefeated every year because they have the one thing Houston lacks - multiple elite (40%+) shooters from 3 point range. The Rockets overperform exptected wins because of their system and (blasphemy!) the Warriors underperform because of their system.

Mediots like Stephan A. can't accept that, so they spend massive amounts of energy coming up with provably false narratives about why the W's are great. The W's are great because of elite defense and elite scoring skills. The system has nothing to do with it - there is no correlation between ball movement, player movement or assists and winning as has been statistically proven many times.

And increased ball movement leads to more turnovers, which (shockingly!) is the one thing everyone points to as Golden State's Achilles heal. Oh and just for giggles, increased player movement almost certainly is correlated with increased risk of injury, which is the only other risk GS suffers from.

People like the W's system because it looks cool, not because it puts more wins on the board.

 

Jesus H. Christ. please post more often. Excellent work.

The media loves the romantic notion of assists and passing as it relates to "teammwork." The Rockets have teammwork, but they do it in a different way that the media isn't used to seeing.

The media feels like if you aren't passing, you aren't getting others involved and if they aren't involved it will show up on defense. That might be the case if you are playing with Westbrook. But with Harden EVERY PLAYER is involved and knows their ROLE. They know the ball will find them, if the shot is efficient. Rockets also have grown ups on their team that have their big boy pants on and don't need "offensive touches" to goose their excitement for defense. They play defense regardless.

 

PLEASE POST MORE OFTEN!

"Mediots"- I am going to pocket that word for use later.

 

Appreciate the kind words.

I believe one of the things that is genius about how DA and Morey has constructed the team is how the system protects veteran players from injury and fatigue. The Rockets low movement offensive system allows everyone except the primary ball handler to conserve energy for use on the defensive end. More active defense = better defense.

The switch everything defense along with the fact that there are 5 - 7 players that rotate into the 3 & 4 spots means older players (like every wing we have) can extend their productive career by coming to the Rockets. I think this is a huge part of the pitch that got Tucker and Luke here and why Morey was able to turn a player no one wanted to sign (Green) into a quality contributor on the best team in the NBA.

Other teams will overpay for 40% 3pt shooters (Ingles) while the Rockets turn just about any +defensive wing who can shoot 35% into a productive part of their system on league minimum salaries. Never heard anyone in the media discuss that as being a key reason the Rox are so strong.

 

Excellent points. And I think Joe Johnson said something similar to this when he got to Houston and found out how the team operated.

I feel this will be a good recruiting pitch to free agents in the future.

 

@Clutch found your next pod guest

Bravo sir

 

The guy just got on air and said Kawahi doesn’t have a ring(awkward). Then said Westbrook and AD are better than Harden. Oh my, get him off espn.

 

If we win, Kellerman is going to be GOAT mode in front of them.