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[Wash Post] 2018 NBA playoff odds: Title favorites? It’s not the Warriors or the Cavs right now

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Os Trigonum, Apr 11, 2018.

  1. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Okogie Only Fan
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    media conspiracy

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...2018-nba-playoff-odds/?utm_term=.e6c0e571defa

    2018 NBA playoff odds: Title favorites? It’s not the Warriors or the Cavs right now.

    by Neil Greenberg April 11 at 10:38 AM Email the author
    [​IMG]
    James Harden and the Houston Rockets had win streaks of 17, 14 and 11 games during the regular season. (Troy Taormina/USA Today)

    The Houston Rockets essentially went wire-to-wire as the best team in the NBA. Coach Mike D’Antoni guided his team to win streaks of 17, 14 and 11 games, and James Harden emerged as an MVP candidate while showing he could share the court with Chris Paul, a ball-dominant guard acquired in the offseason to help this team get over the hump.

    Not to be outdone, the Golden State Warriors kept pace with Houston for most of the season until a knee injury has sidelined two-time MVP Steph Curry since late March, with Coach Steve Kerr insisting Curry would not play in the first round of the playoffs.

    The Boston Celtics have injury concerns of their own. The team lost star Kyrie Irving to a knee injury for the season, including the playoffs, and have gone 8-6 in his absence, outscoring opponents by just 1.2 net points per 100 possessions. They had the fourth-highest net rating (plus-4.3) with Irving available to play.

    The Cleveland Cavaliers, meanwhile, are trending in the opposite direction. Since the trade deadline, LeBron James and his team went 19-9 and are outscoring opponents by 4.9 net points per 100 possessions, a huge improvement over the time prior (minus-0.6) and giving them a chance to earn James his fourth championship ring.

    So how will it all shake out? Our postseason probabilities are based on the win rates that fuel our weekly power rankings and take into account a team’s actual win-loss record; its expected win-loss record based on points scored and allowed, also known as its Pythagorean winning percentage; and its regressed win-loss record to account for a small sample size of only 82 games played.

    As the NBA playoffs unfold, we’ll provide updated win probabilities for every team at the conclusion of every series.

    We start with a close look a this season’s title favorite, and it’s not the Warriors or Cavaliers.

    Houston Rockets
    Chances to win NBA title: 41 percent

    The Rockets lead the league in net rating (plus-8.8) and have one of the most efficient offenses in NBA history, scoring 115.2 points per 100 possessions per Basketball Reference. The key is their shot selection: 82 percent of their field goal attempts are either at the rim or behind the three-point line, two of the most efficient shots available on the court. By comparison, the average NBA team combines those two shot types for 65 percent of their attempts in 2017-18. Houston has also been the best team in transition this season, scoring more than half the time (51 percent) with 1.2 points per possession.

    [​IMG]

    Toronto Raptors
    Chances to win NBA title: 22 percent
    ​
    more at the link, including:

    [​IMG]






    [​IMG]​
     
    #1 Os Trigonum, Apr 11, 2018
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  2. OTMax

    OTMax Member

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    Awesome how it looks like a smile almost :) damn we lost that best offensive rating in NBA history, though it's only separated by decimals.
     
    #2 OTMax, Apr 11, 2018
  3. Zboy

    Zboy Member

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    We will show 'em.
     
    #3 Zboy, Apr 11, 2018
  4. ballscientist1

    ballscientist1 Rookie

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    Updated time: April 10:38am

    Updated after Luc Moute injured.

    Great News for Rockets!

    Chance to win Champ

    Rockets 41%

    Celtics 4% (without Irving and Hayward)

    Warriors 3% (Curry will be back in first round)

    The biggest scary thing is that Celtics without Irving/Hayward have better chance than Warriors!
     
    #4 ballscientist1, Apr 11, 2018
    Last edited: Apr 11, 2018
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  5. Jugdish

    Jugdish Member

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    How the hell are the Spurs above the Warriors?
     
    #5 Jugdish, Apr 11, 2018
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  6. BigShasta

    BigShasta Member

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    They must know something about the Worriers that we don't.
     
    #6 BigShasta, Apr 11, 2018
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  7. Reeko

    Reeko Member

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    media conspiracy of the highest order

    GS with a 3% chance? Nah man, unless Curry isn’t coming back at all.
     
    #7 Reeko, Apr 11, 2018
  8. htownrox1

    htownrox1 Member

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    I'm all for the Rockets getting publicity and the winning edge, and Lord knows I hate the Warriors... But how the heck can the Warriors have only a 2.9% probability to win the Finals?
     
    #8 htownrox1, Apr 11, 2018
  9. marky :)

    marky :) Member

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    I don't believe that the Warriors are at only 3%. The only way I see that is like what others have said and that Curry isn't coming back.
     
    #9 marky :), Apr 11, 2018
  10. photojoe

    photojoe Member

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    Like others have said, 41% for us actually doesn't seem that far-fetched.

    But GSW at 2.9%? Behind the Spurs, Celtics and 76ers? And just barely above the Trailblazers and OKC?

    Even if Curry doesn't play another game in his entire life, that is too low for the Warriors. Not that I mind it, of course, but I just don't see how in the world that is possible.
     
    #10 photojoe, Apr 11, 2018
  11. hakeem94

    hakeem94 Member

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    without another superstar i think KD never led his team further than 2nd round of playoffs
     
    #11 hakeem94, Apr 11, 2018
  12. topfive

    topfive CF OG

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    Spurs didn't lose by 40 points this week.
     
    #12 topfive, Apr 11, 2018
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  13. cerophilik

    cerophilik Member

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    It seems low for the warriors but since curry went down they have looked pretty bad and even before he got injured, they didn’t have the same flow or chemistry. They are pretty beatable atm and even if curry returns for the second round he will probably won’t have his quick release.
    Also their bench is not as good but I don’t know if I would put them so low.
     
    #13 cerophilik, Apr 11, 2018
  14. PuzzledFan

    PuzzledFan Member

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    So, where do I find a place to bet on Golden State that's going to pay back 34.5 to 1? Or I guess it would be 33.5 to 1.
    Bah, I couldn't bring myself to bet on them unless they cut a couple of people.
     
    #14 PuzzledFan, Apr 11, 2018
  15. Fyreball

    Fyreball Member

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    There's a 2.9% chance this graph doesn't give me a chubby.
     
    #15 Fyreball, Apr 11, 2018
  16. ROXTXIA

    ROXTXIA Member

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    I keep tempering my expectations. I know the Rockets' chances to win it all are great. But the last thing I want is overconfidence. The West will have some tough outs. And Toronto (and LeBron and the refs) aren't slouches, either.
     
    #16 ROXTXIA, Apr 11, 2018
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