Iraqi intellectuals living both inside Iraq and as members of the expatriate community in Europe and North America are warning that Iraq is perilously close to a civil war in light of recent events and decrees issued by both the US Civilian Provisional Authority (CPA) and the Iraqi Governing Council (IGC). In chronological order, 1. Leading members of the Shiite majority in Iraq believe that they are about to be shortchanged once again in July 2004, when the CPA hands over control to a provisional Iraqi government which it claims will be more representative of the Iraqi people. Shiite clerics led by Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani have called for direct elections starting from a grassroots level to ensure that the provisional government avoid suspicion of acting as a US proxy and franchise the support and active participation of the Iraqi people. Al-Sistani has charged the CPA with failing to enjoin the democratic needs of the Iraqi people. Other Shiite clerics have also charged that they fear that a new Iraqi constitution will be far more secular than the Baathist legal framework and not cater to the Islamic flavor of the country. Al-Sistani's position received strong endorsement from the current rotating IGC president Shiite cleric Abdel Aziz Hakim who used his inaugural speech to state that "A provisional national assembly should be elected by the Iraqi people, and this assembly should choose the government." Several IGC members have defended the CPA plan citing the lack of a census upon which all elections must be based. A census determines the demographics of the population, does a count of eligible voters, carries out voter registration, and enhances the democratic process which the country requires. With no census, says the IGC, there can be no elections. However, in early November, the Iraqi Census Bureau submitted a plan to conduct a full national census in Iraq by Fall 2004. According to a recent Al Jazeera article, quoting Agence-France Press and the New York Times, Iraqi officials submitted their plan on November 1 and were asking for a decision by November 15. IGC officials admitted never seeing the plan which eventually fell to the wayside. Iraqis are beginning to suspect that there are elements both within the IGC and the CPA that are working to undermine Iraqi democracy. 2. The New York Times reported on November 25th that the IGC is trying to wedge its way out of its commitment to relinquishing control to an elected body: "But Jalal Talabani, the Kurdish leader who is serving as president of the council this month, said in an interview Monday that a majority of the council members 'want to keep the Governing Council as it is now.' Some council members who oppose this idea say they believe that the proposal is being promoted by members who are afraid that they may not fare well in the coming elections. Opponents of the idea also say they fear that staying on will be a public relations disaster for the nascent rebuilt Iraqi state." Iraqis are astounded that the CPA may indeed give in to urges from certain IGC members and keep them on in some kind of future arrangement. The fact that unelected elements may remain in power is incensing Iraqis who claim there is no difference between Saddam's former henchmen and the IGC members who are considered self-serving and out for a power grab. The news that IGC members are bargaining to stay in power has, ironically, become an effective recruiting tool for the Iraqi resistance. Many Iraqis privately say they are waiting till July 2004 before deciding whether to work with the CPA or support an increasing Iraqi rebellion in key parts of the country. However, there may be ominous signs that members of the IGC may turn to violent means to enforce their political aspirations. Certain members of the IGC are protected by their local security guards and a heavy US security detail. Some of the council members have their own private little armies. Galal Talabani and Masoud Barazani, both rival Kurdish leaders, maintain highly-equipped armies of peshmerga who at one point fought Saddam's armies, and at several junctions, one another. Ahmad Chalabi, who is wanted on charges of fraud and embezzlement in neighboring Jordan (he was sentenced to 20 years in absentia), has his own army of Iraqi opposition who were trained by the CIA and wear American-made uniforms and wield American-made weaponry. 3. In efforts to minimize the toll on US forces in Iraq (448 fatalities, 11,000 wounded or incapacitated) there has been a maddening rush to create an Iraqi militia force that would overtake many of the duties performed by Coalition forces - patrol, searching for insurgents, protecting key installations, etc. However, while the average rotation time for training new Iraqi police and/or militia is six months, many of the Iraqi forces on active duty have only seen three weeks of training, a discrepancy that is worrying some Iraq experts. Ali Jawad, a former Iraqi police recruit who left for Amman, Jordan when his comrades were killed in recent Baghdad attacks, claims that Iraqi police are poorly equipped, poorly trained, have communication barriers with coalition forces, and are constantly looking over their shoulders not only from Iraqi insurgents, but US forces which may be trigger-happy or uninformed of Iraqi patrol presence. He says that Iraqi police are stressed and many have domestic problems because of their torn loyalties. Jawad believes it wouldn't take much for the Iraqi police to join the insurgency if conditions in Iraq further deteriorated. US forces are aware that they are in a dilemma and have consequently drawn a plan they hope will alleviate the problem of putting Iraqi forces in charge of security. According to Bahrain's Gulf Daily News, the CPA is using its influence with Kurdish factions to start using well-armed Kurdish peshmerga fighters, who formerly fought against the Iraqi Army, to patrol hotspots like the Sunni Triangle and Arab-dominated Mosul. Sunni religious leaders have expressed outrage over the proposed deal and have warned, in no ambiguous terms, that the Sunni areas will not tolerate being patrolled or policed by Kurdish (or Shiite) militia. They warn that a civil war would be inevitable. 4. Oil. Reports have emerged from Iraq indicating that Israeli technocrats and oil industry personnel have been seen mulling about in the Kurdish-held areas of Iraq. Independent Iraqi observers point to discussions between Israeli businessmen and government officials with the CPA and certain members of the Iraqi opposition that would later form the IGC. An article in The Guardian (April 20) said "Plans to build a pipeline to siphon oil from newly conquered Iraq to Israel are being discussed between Washington, Tel Aviv and potential future government figures in Baghdad. The plan envisages the reconstruction of an old pipeline, inactive since the end of the British mandate in Palestine in 1948, when the flow from Iraq's northern oilfields to Palestine was re-directed to Syria." In late August, Israel's daily Haaretz reported that "The new pipeline would take oil from the Kirkuk area, where some 40 percent of Iraqi oil is produced, and transport it via Mosul, and then across Jordan to Israel. The U.S. telegram included a request for a cost estimate for repairing the Mosul-Haifa pipeline that was in use prior to 1948." Iraqis are now concerned that a likely Iraqi civil war would be a shadow war to cover up the fact that Iraqi oil is being siphoned to Israel. "Now we see that it wasn't about oil, this war, but about oil for Israel," said Shahim Al-Obeidi, an Iraqi chemist in Quebec City, Canada. "The Kurds might sell their pride to Israel, but the Arabs will not tolerate this. And they ask why people are joining the resistance," he said defiantly. Almost all Iraqis interviewed for this article expressed a mixture of dismay, disgust and anger at the US mishandling of Iraqi affairs. They claim that they are glad that the Baathist regime has been dislodged but wonder why Iraqi civil society is marginalized in the reconstruction and re-politicization of Iraq. Talk of civil war is now common among Iraqis sipping tea in Baghdad teahouses or those who are professors in Europe and North America. "I have very bad vibes indeed. Things look ominous, as if a civil war is imminent," said Fadi Wazan, an Iraqi businessman in Boston, Massachusetts. link
I must admit I skimmed through this article so I may just be repeating a point already made by the author. If the US (military) leave Iraq and leaves the local government in power to hold Iraq, as one country won't it immediately break into civil war among the different factions much like the situation in Afghanistan --- if our military leaves there as well? This seems like a very likely scenario at this time to me at least.
Is this still a valid question after Saddam's capture? I would think so. BUt who would be blamed if the Iraqi's have a civil war between themselves? Bush. Not the ones fighting due to their own decisions. And would it be failure on Bush's part if they did break into civil war? No. It would just be Iraq determining their own future in an early democratic way, much as our nation during our civil war. It would still be victory on the part of Democracy. People would be deciding, and "voting" with bullets and blood. Just like we did... and several other nations have done. Is it the best possible scenario? Not clear. "Not clear?" - you may ask. Well, would it have been better for the US to not have a civil war? Or just to have the Confederate States run things? Civil War can and cannot be failure. But again I ask, "Is this still a valid question after Saddam's capture?" There is always a price for freedom and democracy. Some price tags are bigger, and unforeseeable.
It definitely is clear that the U.S. would have been better off had the issues surrounding the civil war been settled in a just and peaceful way. There wouldn't have been the huge loss of life, the injustices of the reconstruction era, etc. It's also clear that not having a civil war in Iraq would be a good thing. Peaceful solutions to problems are always better than violent ones.
Not yet. The Pakistan assassination attempt seemed very suspicious to me. The fact that it missed by a lot I mean. I assume they would be using radio or cell phone and not timers, especially since 1000 pounds would take a while to plant, and one could not be sure of delays or changes in schedule. If Iraqis can do it, why not Al Qaeda in its own backyard? It's like the Pakistanis did it themselves to show they are victims, too.
Woofer, I found this link that discusses the assassination attempt. <a HREF="http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/365240.cms">Hi-tech device saved Musharraf's life</a>
Thanks. To be honest, I found this hard to believe as well. IIRC my engineering background, a jammer is generally only effective on a narrow spectrum, unless one wishes to jam almost everything, then one starts interfering with the radio and TV reception of anyone close to the jammer, sort of giving away the goods so to speak, when their equipment stops working anytime you pass by them in your convoy.
I should point out that I am not an expert in radio communications, and haven't studied this in twenty years, but a broad spectrum frequency jammer would not delay a bomb that was triggered by radio signal in most cases. It would stop it totally while in effective range of the jammer. They are assuming that someone would continually send the signal to explode the bomb after the convoy passed. Why? For the terrorist that behavior gives away the fact that one is using radio jammer susceptible transmitter/receivers. What exactly does the Pakistani government gain by revealing one of its defenses?
Well, you really know me!! I want CARNAGE and DESTRUCTION.... Middle Ages for everyone!! Ummmm, how do I say this........ Duh?!? Hence my last line...
Woofer, Another article and the author's comments about the security setup for Musharraf. <a HREF="http://www.saag.org/papers9/paper864.html">ATTEMPT ON MUSHARRAF'S LIFE</a> This article sounds close to your earlier post in this thread. <a HREF="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/EL19Df05.html">Assassination 'windfall' for Musharraf</a> Natural leadership succession is not the norm in Pakistan, so Musharraf's future will always be in doubt. <a HREF="http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/mpapps/pagetools/print/news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/country_profiles/1156716.stm">Timeline: Pakistan A chronology of key events:</a>
Hmmmm. One group kills someone from the other group and the other group kills someone from the first group. I swear I've seen this dynamic in other places before... If we don't get this under control pronto, things could go from bad to worse. ______________ Iraqi insurgents kill U.S. soldier in Baghdad By Nadim Ladki BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraqi guerrillas killed a U.S. soldier in an ambush in Baghdad, the U.S. military said on Thursday, as two assassinations underlined fears that internal political divisions could erupt into widespread bloodletting. The soldier's death on Wednesday night was the first combat fatality suffered by U.S. troops since news on Sunday of the capture of ousted Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein, and the 199th since Washington declared major combat over on May 1. In a further example of the violence that has gripped Iraq since Saddam's capture, an official of the largest Shi'ite Muslim group was killed by Saddam loyalists on Wednesday. A representative of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) said Muhannad al-Hakim had been shot dead near his home in Baghdad's Amil district, after receiving death threats from Saddam supporters. The SCIRI official added that in a separate incident, an angry crowd in the southern city of Najaf had attacked and killed Ali al-Zalimi, an official of Saddam's Baath party who played a role in crushing an uprising by Iraqi Shi'ites after the 1991 Gulf War. "People surrounded him with guns, and proceeded to shoot and beat him," the official said, calling the killers: "residents of Najaf who recognised this criminal". Political violence has flared among Iraq's Shi'ites, who make up 60 percent of the population, since the fall of Saddam, whose government killed numerous religious leaders of a community he regarded as a fifth column linked to Shi'ite Iran. SCIRI leader Ayatollah Mohammed Baqer al-Hakim was killed along with about 80 others in August when a car bomb ripped through one of Shi'ism's holiest shrines, where Hakim had just led worshippers in prayer. DEADLY AMBUSH A U.S. spokeswoman said a soldier from the 1st Armored Division died in an ambush in the al-Karradah neighbourhood of Baghdad at 10:30 p.m. (1930 GMT) on Wednesday. Another soldier and an Iraqi translator were wounded. U.S. forces swept into the town of Samarra for a second day to flush out guerrillas from the so-called Sunni triangle in northern and central Iraq where Saddam had his power base. Eighty six people have been arrested in the past 48 hours. Two brigades have encircled Samarra, some 100 km north of Baghdad, cutting it off from the outside world while soldiers from a third brigade make house-to-house searches and scour shops and junkyards. U.S. forces seized 200 AK-47 assault rifles and bomb-making material and arrested five people including an arms dealer, the U.S. military said in a statement. American soldiers returned fire at a car after coming under attack, killing one person, the military said. In a separate incident, U.S. troops opened fire on a car that was speeding towards them, killing the driver. The military said it had stepped up an offensive to stamp out attacks on U.S.-led occupying forces and Iraqis cooperating with the United States. It blames the attacks on Saddam supporters and foreign Islamic militants. Britain backed on Thursday the need for a "substantial reduction" of Iraqi debt through the Paris Club framework. "The United Kingdom agrees wholeheartedly with the need for a substantial reduction of Iraqi debt using the framework of the Paris Club during the course of 2004," said a spokesman for the Prime Minister Tony Blair following talks with U.S. special envoy James Baker. Baker is on a trip to Europe to persuade countries to reduce Iraq's estimated $120 billion in debt. He has visited Paris, Berlin and Rome and will next head to Moscow for the toughest leg of his trip. The states Baker has visited have said they want to see a reduction in Iraq's debt, but France and Germany, who opposed the war, have also said they want their debt reductions to be negotiated through the Paris Club of 19 creditor nations. Paris Club President Jean-Pierre Jouyet said on Thursday that Iraq will need an internationally recognised leadership to sign a debt relief deal with the group of 19 creditor states. Ahead of Baker's visit, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned the United States not to slip into an empire-like mentality of feeling infallible on Iraq. "I hope, I very much hope, that this will not happen to our American partners," said Putin, who opposed the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in March. (Additional reporting by Joseph Logan in Baghdad and Brian Love in London)
