yes, this is his best year, and he’s a lot more impressive this year than he was last year -his scoring has increased from 29.1 ppg to 31 ppg while increasing his efficiency: his TS% has increased from 61.3% to 62.6%, eFG% has increased from 52.5% to 54.8%, FG% has increased from 44% to 45.1%, 3 point percentage has increased 34.7% to 37.7%, and his free throw percentage has increased from 84.7% to 86.8% -his PER has increased from 27.4 to 30.4, and his WS/48 has increased from .245 to .300 -he’s 2nd in the NBA in RPM after being 13th last year, and his RPM has increased from 4.81 to 6.83 -he has increased his usage rate from 34.2% to 36%, but his turnover rate has decreased from 19.5% to 15% -his offensive rating has increased from 118 to 122, and his defensive rating has improved from 107 to 105 and if u want to go by the eye test as well, his handle is tighter, he’s in better shape, his shot has improved, he’s playing better defense, and he’s quicker and more explosive I don’t see any argument for Harden being better or more impressive last season...matter of fact, I like 14-15 Harden more than I do last year’s Harden
The predominant factors for predicting voting behavior looks to me to be: 1. OBPM (offensive boxscore plus/minus). A box score summary stat that estimates offensive impact. 2. Team dominance. Voters don’t seem to care much about 55 wins if multiple other teams (especially teams with their own MVP candidates) have several more wins. This dynamic needs to be accounted for somehow. It could be something like: start with the top N teams by win total. For each team in that group with less wins than the player’s team, sum up the difference in wins. A third factor is more narrative-driven, but that doesn’t mean it can’t be seen in the numbers. But it’s a lot more complex. It involves looking at team trends over recent seasons, games played/missed by key players, and roster changes. A fourth factor is defense, which could probably be captured adequately with DWS or DBPM.
Why do you prefer 14-15 Harden over 16-17? He's averaging better numbers this season, but everyone underrates is his ability to adapt to a PG role. In fact, he led the league in assists in the first year he ever tried. All while not taking a hit on any other stat except maybe TOs, and all while leading the team to #3 in the loaded West. And I think you'll agree, SAS/GSW were better teams last year compared to this year. I'll say that his diff rating is the number that shocks me. But a lot of his numbers have changed because he's playing with better players overall. Last season, he had almost nothing. We were thriving off of Nene when he'd have great games in the series against OKC. The real most improved player on this team is Clint Capela. The entire team's defensive rating improved from 106.4 to 104.2, so I don't know how much credit he deserves for defensive improvements when his whole team is defensively better. His efficiency numbers increasing is great, I'll fully admit that. Especially when he seems to be thriving while playing in isolation more often, slowing the pace, etc. But IMO, that doesn't mean this is his best season, or that he deserves MVP this season compared to others. I'm personally confused why people are just in a craze over James Harden this season. I honestly think they're backtracking because they ****ed up last year's MVP award.
I like this better, but still disagree a bit with the team dominance. It really cuts both ways, you can't have too much help, but you also can. It makes no sense. Probably the narrative is way more important than that. Last season, Rockets 55 vs OKC 47. I never considered defense as part of their narrative, but I do remember some analysts/commentators saying that's a knock against Harden. You also probably took a look at some stats for previous MVP winners, so I won't dispute it.
I prefer 14-15 Harden over 16-17 Harden because he was quicker, more explosive, had a tighter handle, was a better 3 point shooter, and was a lot better in the clutch. Harden should be commended for being able to adapt to being a PG, but I prefer him not being in that full-time PG role. The Harden we’re seeing right now is basically 14-15 Harden, but at a higher level and in a better system surrounded by better players. I think the role that Harden is in right now as a great passing, high scoring SG that can play point at times is the most ideal role for him. I think losing weight and being in better shape has helped him on the defensive end, so he should get some credit for that. Also, now that he’s not a full-time PG and doesn’t have to carry the burden of being the #1 option and primary playmaker at all times, he has more energy to play D. I just don’t see how u don’t view this as his best season. The basic numbers, advanced stats, and eye test all point to him being clearly better this year than he was last year. I don’t really view it as them backtracking. Harden is just so far ahead of the competition that there really isn’t a case for anyone else. His team has the best record in the NBA, and no one else’s stats are all that close to his. His case is even stronger this year than it was last year. He should be a unanimous MVP winner this year. This is about as clear a choice as Lebron in 12-13 and Steph in 15-16.
Great video, the season Harden is having he should be highly considered as the second Unanimous MVP winner.. But he won't get it.. But as long as he get the MVP I'll be happy
he could have had the scoring title 3 yrs in a row, Westbrook made a late surge a couple times and stat hunted which is a big surprise....
Welp.....the Harden MVP train was fun while it lasted guys.... ......looks like the real MVP has just trip dubbed down on his crown http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/...homa-city-thunder-records-100th-triple-double
Crazy enough his stat padding leads to wins apparently. Maybe his teammates should keep boxing out for him. Lol
If I had a vote, I'm voting Brodie. Brodie just got his 100th triple double, so expect a surge in recency bias and propel Brodie up in MVP rankings. Beard, best player, best record in ball that's 2015 narrative. #TripleDoublesMatter.
Clear best player carrying the heaviest burden pushing his team to most success/wins. Beard should be a 3 time MVP by the end of this year if that traditional criteria is followed.
Or tipping it over to him like Adams does too. There’s no way Russ should even be consider since he got Paul and Carmelo and they might not even make the playoffs.
I know Harden has the MVP on lock, but Westbrook is 12.3 rebounds per game (in the last 10 games) away from averaging another trip-double season. I know it shouldn't but does that make any difference?
You want Westbrook to get a triple double. It will just make all the “well he got a triple double” analyst from last year look like tools.
