2nd view of OU-KSU, OU-LSU thoughts

Watched the tape of OU-KSU a second time this morning, I had a number of observations.

1) OU’s defense was not as bad that game as the score indicated—it was much better upon reviewing the tape. The players for the most part were in the proper positions, and most of the pass completions against them had a small window. What mostly happened that game is Sproals and Roberson were phenomenal. Sproals goes without saying, consistently beating 1 or 2 defenders who would have knocked him for a loss or kept the gains within reason. He was, and just is, a special college football player. Roberson had such a great instinct on when to run and when to take a slight adjustment in the pocket to find a small seem in the defense and was on the money on every big throw. It was the capper game for his career. The also had a couple of good throws off play action that was set up from Sproals runs. The other big play was the Terry-Perkins play, it wasn’t so much well executed as it was a good effort by Terry, a misread by Perkins and the safety, plus mix in a lot of luck.

One way to look at the score is throw out the interception return for a TD and the lucky Terry plan and KSU’s offense really put together 3 TDs. A lot of the later ground damage the game was over. So OU’s defense giving up 21 points with how phenomenal Sproals and Roberson played is really not that bad of an effort. Not great, but not near as bad as 1st impressions.

2) OU’s offense has major weaknesses. They become 1 dimensional against defenses of good quality. The only way they can consistently move the ball if they can’t run is if White is protected like a newborn baby. Many of OU’s best down field routes are also double, triple moves, you need time to work those. The whole key to slowing (KSU slowed them they really did not stop them) if not stopping them is plugging the run and while gearing for a pass every down (up field pressure on the pocket). Against OU you really want to mix up defenses, but the thing you can’t do is not pressure. White is too accurate and has too strong an arm to just sit back, you could have 11 guys in coverage and their will be holes White will find if he has an open throwing lane and all day. But make White move around and he is average at best, and if you collapse the pocket, White is a dead duck.

3) miscellaneous observations. Strait and Lehman are not near as special as billed. Sproals ran by both of them like they were in quick sand. All this stuff about Lehman being the fastest LB ever, well maybe in a 100 yard dash, but his football speed is quite overrated. Not only did Sproals blow by him countless times and when Lehman was in chase losing ground, same thing happen when he tried to chase down Vince Young too. Lehman is a good all around LB and fast for the LB—but he is no Derrick Brooks or Urlacher (yes I know he played SS in college but he really was a extra LB). Now there was one OU guy who hung with Sprouls in the open field (saved a late TD), and that was Perkins. In sum, Perkins & Sproals, fast, Strait and Lehman, not so fast.

OK now on LSU-OU, here is how I see it shaping up.

LSU offense versus OU defense. I expect OU’s defense to generally have the upper hand. 1) Matt Mauck has some similarities—he is athletic for a QB, but he is no Roberson. He isn’t as quick thinking, its as accurate and isn’t as fast. Mauck is going to need more help than Roberson would to move the chains. 2) rushing game. LSU has good RBs, but I am not sure if anyone has another Spraols. Well maybe Perry and Jones are as good, that is it from who I have seen. That said, Vincent is very good, certainly more explosive RB from either team. One strength LSU does have is WRs. Micheal Clayton, Henderson and Green give them a blend of speed, size and playmaking ability few can match.

OU offense versus LSU defense. I expect LSU’s defense to present even more problems than KSU. OU running against LSU, forget it. Lavalei is the dominating interior tackle Tommie Harris would like to be, and they have speed and size throughout their front 7. The safeties could be prone to make errors though, that is about the only weakness I see in their defense. Whether White has enough time to take advantage, I don’t know, I doubt it. Saban knows it is better to bring the farm and leave single coverage if needed than give White time to throw, and I think LSU has the corners to fair OK if alone.

Special teams. Green and Perkins are two of the best return men college football. I kind of like Green slightly better though because he seems to head upfield first and then look to make moves. OU has a big advantage in FG kicker though.


WHAT THE GAME WILL COME DOWN TOO

Either team could easily win, I really don’t think either team will sustain drives. LSU has better chance to run than OU, every yard LSU can get on the ground will be critical, because they cannot afford to have to throw when OU knows they are going to throw. LSU must throught he ground game or screen passes keep OU's defense a little off balance or forget it. This is a little less true for OU because if White has time he will make the proper reads even against properly set up defenses. I think the offensive scores from either team will come from long plays—with the candidates being both Claytons, Vincent, Green or possible K Jones. I think they may come from screens that catch over pursuing defenses, or slants or bombs against single coverage in blitzes where the individual offensive playmakers beat a man or two—but are unlikely from their base bread and butter offensive plays they chew up most teams with.

MY GUT Says LSU will win. They will have just enough offensive balance and firepower (Vincent, Clayton, Green) to put up some points and their DL and overall physicality of their defense will be the story of the game. On the other hand OU’s defense could dominant the game as well and forcing LSU into mistakes as what happened versus Florida and Mississippi (LSU’s D saved them this game). In the end to me the X factor is how both teams ended, and I think Mauck, both physical Tiger lines, and the whole Tiger team will be confident enough to execute the right plays. Should be a lot of fun.

 

Only teams that win their division deserve the BCS bids. Otherwise, you are backing in IMO. Texas needs to win the Big 12 South before having a real complaint being out of the BCS.

But let's get back on track: KSU, OU & LSU