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Houston economy question

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout' started by Pole, Dec 6, 2001.

  1. Pole

    Pole Houston Rockets--Tilman Fertitta's latest mess.

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    My wife and I have--so far--dodged a bullet in Houston's economic woes. With all of the layoff's and now the Enron debacle, we've both held on to our jobs and have even gotten respectable raises this year.

    We live just north of Galveston which is great for me because I have a place for the boat, easy access to fishing, and I work just a few miles from the house. It's not so good for my wife though as she drives into downtown Houston every day.

    Being the nice guy that I can be sometimes, I've suggested to her that we could move to Houston. Then, I'll be making the commute, but I'll be going against all of the traffic.

    We're going to find something inside the loop, and the only place north of downtown we'll consider will be the Heights area so that it's not too difficult for me to get to work. I'm curious as to everyones thoughts on the following related subjects:

    1) Interest rates. They are great right now, but it looks like mortgage rates are not falling as fast as other rates. I would imagine that is because mortgage rates follow home sales and home sales are one of the last things hit by a declining economy. Is that a good assumption, and should I expect them to decline further? I was thinking that I'd wait until the day the fed raises rates for the first time (which could be months away) and I'd lock in my rate then (unless mortgage rates seem to start edging up prior to that). Any thoughts on what will happen to mortgage rates and how they follow the fed?

    2) Home prices. With Enron having a culture that encouraged employees to live close to downtown, I'm expecting a lot of houses in that area to go up for sale. Not to sound like a vulture, but I'd love to pick up a good bargain. Any thoughts on whether this downturn is enough to drop home prices? Will drops in home prices lag behind mortgage rates? Anyone want to wager a guess as to when they'll hit rock bottom?

    3) Location, location, location. We want to live inside the loop, but we still want a bargain. We stayed at some friend's house in the Heights last weekend and really enjoyed the area, but as cool as it is, there didn't seem to be any bargains. It looks like it's coolness has home prices way up. We like Bellaire and West U., but that may be too yuppie for us. We like Montrose and the museum district quite a bit, but I've yet to find a decent way to hit I-45 from there during rush hour. All of those places are established too. I want to buy into the "next big thing." There seems to be some cool neighborhoods just east of 45 and south of downtown, and there also seems to be some cool neighborhoods between 288 and 45. Anyone have any thoughts on cool neighborhoods and what might be that "next big thing?"

    thanks in advance
     
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  2. red

    red Member

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    you want affordable...move to where i grew up...alief;)

    and pack some heat while you're there.
     
  3. Jeff

    Jeff Clutch Crew

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    Don't count on the Heights homes coming down anytime soon. The market here is still strong with new construction, renovation and resale going on all the time.

    However, this is the right time to buy. There are plenty of homes on the market and winter is a tough time for sellers. I don't know how much you can afford, but expect to pay at LEAST $200,000 in the Heights if you want something larger than 1,000 sq. ft. that does not require serious renovation. The home right across the street from us (a 1300 sq. ft. nicely renovated 2/2) just sold for $200,000 even.

    There is a beautiful 1 story at the corner of Ashland and 12th with a garage and apartment above it for sale. I actually have been in that home and the people who live there are INSANE neat freaks. I'm sure the house is more spotless than Martha Stewart's! I know it has wood floors and a fairly sizeable kitchen. It is one bath, however, and two bedrooms.

    Here are a few realtors that should help:

    Jeff Morrison with Martha Turner Properties - I don't know his number but Jeff is actually a friend of mine (he's a great guitar player). He lives in the Heights and knows it well.

    Cynthia Hill with Cynthia Hill Properties - She is awesome. My wife and I adopted two ferrets from her several years ago. She used to have a ferret adoption agency. Her number is 713-869-0540

    Karen Derr - Nice Heights-area realtor
    Gary Greene Heights
    Of course, Coldwell Banker, Swilley Hudson - Swilley Hudson was THE independant Heights realtor until they were bought by Coldwell Banker. They still have most of the properties.

    I would also recommend Frank Babinack. He is an attorney and small home broker on Heights Blvd. He worked with my wife and I as a buyer's broker. They don't cost you anything (they get a cut of the sale commission) but they can be very valuable in dealing with contracts and realty people.

    If you want some more info, drop me an email. I'm happy to help.
     
  4. F.D. Khan

    F.D. Khan Member

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    www.har.com

    Houston Real Estate can be found by location, specifics and price.
    Its a great resource to do your homework yourself instead of calling real estate agents at first.

    Now is a good time, simply because I see the Compaq and Enron layoffs as short term declines in Houston's growth. Houston is also the home of such companies as Reliant, Duke, El Paso and Dynegy and should bounce back rather quickly.

    If you are serious, get out there now because I feel right now you can take advantage of the emotion preying on Houstonians amidst the looming Enron bankruptcy.
     
  5. coma

    coma Member

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    Why inside the loop?

    Move to Sugar Land.

    After the construction on 59 is completed, traffic should be a cake.

    Prices are kinda high, but it's the 'burbs.
     
  6. Jeff

    Jeff Clutch Crew

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    Sugarland to north of Galveston isn't exactly a picnic of a commute. After living out in the 'burbs for nearly 22 years, I cannot EVER imagine living that far away from my job again. Granted, my commute now is feet rather than miles ( :) ), but I can get just about anywhere in town in few minutes because I'm centrally located.

    If I were going to move out of the city, it would be WAY the hell out of the city. :D
     
  7. Dr of Dunk

    Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

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    I think they've been saying "After the construction on 59 is completed..." since I came to this country back in 1974. :)

    This is an interesting thread. Unfortunately it's also one I can't contribute much to because of my lack of knowledge. However, I've thought that some of the goofs that overspent well beyond their means back in the telecom boom for the past few years here in Dallas are going to be selling/foreclosing their homes soon if not already. I've often thought about just buying 1 or 2 homes in the hopes of turning around and selling them down the road for a profit. But then, like I said, I know nothing about the housing market. :)
     
  8. Pole

    Pole Houston Rockets--Tilman Fertitta's latest mess.

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    Thanks guys; I've always maintained...if I'm going to live in the city, then I'm going to live IN the city.

    Sugarland would not be an upgrade over what I have now. I've been all over www.har.com, and I recognize a few of the agencies that Jeff mentioned. I've already started looking and have about two dozen homes picked out.

    here's a few favs:

    http://www.har.com/search/main/inde...oo=http://www.urbanrealtors.com/vt/har/622450

    http://www.har.com/search/main/indexdetail.cfm?mlnum=630639&addr=2243 COLUMBIA*&zip=77008

    http://www.har.com/search/main/indexdetail.cfm?mlnum=623610&addr=515 WILLARD&zip=77006

    I don't mind getting an older house....it's just that upkeep killed me in my last one. I'm kind of ready for something new.

    Mostly, I'm interested in your comments as to when is the right time to buy, and Jeff and F.D. Khan, I really appreciate your comments on those subjects. I've seen that house you are talking about Jeff, but it's a little small for us. God love her, but my wife has a lot of crap; we really need a three bedroom.
     
  9. Jeff

    Jeff Clutch Crew

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    Pole,

    I got what you want now. I looked at all three above and I can tell you a little about the first 2. The 3rd is in the Montrose.

    #1 is literally 2 blocks from my house. It is in the same block as mine between 11th and 12th just two blocks over. It is a brand new home that was really wedged between two much smaller homes. It takes up nearly every square inch of the property and is directly across the street from three new large homes in a similar style.

    About 2 houses down is a halfway house run by the United Way. It is an assisted living facility mostly for people in wheelchairs. The people there are very nice and it is a nice place. You are basically across the street from Love Park which isn't a bad thing. It can get noisy on the weekend and they have HUGE lights for night soccer games but it isn't dangerous or anything. You are also 1 block from a really great little neighborhood restaurant - Java Java Cafe.

    The location is the West Heights close to Shepherd. There is a large Kroger about 3 blocks from you there and an HEB about 5 blocks in the other direction.

    #2 is in a more developed section of the Heights but the house in question is kind of a cookie-cutter group of homes there squeezed onto very small lots. The lot is east of Heights Blvd and north of 20th - really more in Sunset Heights. There is a good basketball court close to there that rimbaud and I have played at a few times. :) You are very close to a large middle school that is on 20th, a big Kroger and 19th St. with all the antique shops.

    I would suggest continuing your search in the West Heights area, particularly between Yale and Shepherd, south of 11th. That is the last area to really be developed (although, north of 11th is where I am and it is still growing as you can see from #1) and should have the best deals but you may have to live with less favorable conditions than in other areas.
     
  10. RocketsPimp

    RocketsPimp Member

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    Neither is anywhere north of South Houston. Sugarland to north G-Town is just as bad as the Heights to north Galveston. You can hop on the Beltway and it's a straight 10-15 mile stretch over to 45. I'm not sure how bad traffic is in the morning on that stretch of BW-8 though.
     
  11. Pole

    Pole Houston Rockets--Tilman Fertitta's latest mess.

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    Thank you so much Jeff. I picked those houses from har.com solely on the houses themselves. I didn't know anything about their exact location or what's in the neighborhood. That's great info. We're going to go looking this weekend, so I'm sure I'll have some different opinions come Monday.
     
  12. grummett

    grummett Member

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    Mortgage rates are priced versus the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. Follow that yield and not necessarily what the Fed does.
     
  13. DREAMer

    DREAMer Member

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    I grew up from 1970 - 1979 very near there in between 15th and 16th, on Blair and then on Herkimer (the very next street). The tiny house on Blair is still there, but the house on Herkimer was demolished for a new larger fancy one.

    Love Park.... ah, the childhood memories. I had a friend who lived directly across the street (north) of the park.

    My grandmother (and now my mom too) still lives in Sunset Heights right near the freeway (610).
     
  14. Ottomaton

    Ottomaton Member
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    If you are willing to consider instead of a house, a townhouse, condiser the area around West Grey/Lousiana. The 'inner-city' renewal that was started in the Heights in the 80's and has since started anew seperately downtown, is comeing together in the middle in this West Grey area.

    While the character is different than the easygoing attitude of the Heights, the area is exhibiting the same signs of rapid change that the Heights did 10-15 years ago, and it's somewhat more focused attitude may translate into greater continued property value gains. The change in the area from 2 years ago is truly amazing.

    As much as I like the lack of zoning laws in the Heights, I believe that they will prevent the area from realizing it's potential as a cash cow.
     
  15. Kim

    Kim Member

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    Pole,

    I have a hookup for you. They split commission with you if you're the type of person who does all the house shopping on your own. You see, if the owner has a realtor...I'm not even sure if that even is necessary...all I know is there are situations where if you have a broker who is your friend who is willing to split money with you, that is more savings than if you did not have a broker or realestate agent at all. So if you want to take advantage of the system, email me at kmx03@yahoo.com and i'll give you the lowdown.
     
  16. s land balla

    s land balla Member

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    I stumbled upon this 16-year-old thread and it's fascinating to read today. $200k in the Heights?! Some of those houses you posted links to have more than tripled in value.

    Where did you end up buying?
     
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  17. Pole

    Pole Houston Rockets--Tilman Fertitta's latest mess.

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    Wow......necrobump. We looked all inside the loop, and one day (out of frustration) we drove by this inventory home in Pearland that had been custom built for someone else (but the builder and buyer had a falling out). At the time, I thought we stole it, but almost eight years later when we sold it, we made nothing. That was to move to Calgary for five years, and now we are back in Houston near my wife’s office in the energy corridor. I’m all but retired and a stay at home dad for our nine year old. Lots of things have changed for us.
     
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