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Statistically, Harden is the worst garbage time player in the league

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by James.B.H, Nov 24, 2017.

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DreamShook Member

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Harden needs to score only 2 measly points in garbage time for a milestone, record-breaking statline?

#21 DreamShook, Nov 24, 2017

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bongman Member

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If beard wins the garbage man of the Year award, that will propel him to top 25 all time. He's just racking up individual awards!!!

#22 bongman, Nov 24, 2017

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heypartner Member

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Prince never played in Garbage Time

#23 heypartner, Nov 24, 2017

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James.B.H Member

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heypartner said: ↑

You seem to have fun with this, and it is fun. And that was a fun start for you guys. But, imo, if you stick to a normalized, probability solution, you are making a false rule, and someone else will write better code to match the point in time Coaches actually toss in the towel -- and fans will find that data more useful.

Stop thinking about Harden for a second, and think about improving Team ORtg stats to eliminate Garbage Time.

Try not to change the actual definition of Garbage Time to make it easier to program. It pollutes the "Normal Time" stats that the coach and fans really want to see.

Your definition is: Garbage Time is the point in time when nearly 100% of games are determined. What kind of normalization is that? It's not helpful -- not nearly as useful to coaches and fans as the existing definition.

The real definition is: Garbage Time is when coaches say it is -- when the best players are taken out. That is not subjective, and can be objectively measured better than your definition. And it produces a much better story of information that coaches might use, vs your definition. For instance, at the point coaches give up, I can stop recording Team ORtg and give the coach data for when the normal rotation was still playing. He doesn't care about my Garbage Time stats, so your definition would pollute his data if your times didn't match his.

Think about this problem: "Team ORtg minus Garbage Time". When you work that out, you will see that your definition of Garbage Time is too subjective, because it changes the real World to make it easier to model. Doing that isn't Objective just because it establishes probability as some kind of rule. It is subjective because you are incorrectly choosing the "rule" -- making Probability the Rule vs the Coach. You really need to objectively identify the point in time the coach threw in the towel and removed his main Team...that is the exact point in time we can objectively say "Team ORtg" recording should stop, since the team is no longer on the court.

The matrix method, normalized "empirically" or via probability, isn't what the coach would want.

Make sense?
Click to expand...

Your comments are informative and enlightening. Thanks for writing down such a great quote. I completely agree with your argument that when it comes to defining a unpolluted Team Ortg, the existing definition makes much more sense than assuming that a probability based on historical data actually determines the game.

However, maybe my English isn't good enough to make my point clear, all the previous quotes falls into the discussion of terminology, "garbage time", which I have no problem acknowledging that the existing definition is much more useful. Again, the motivation of this analysis starts from the impression that James Harden tends to play much worse in situations where his team has a huge lead with short time left in the game(which I call this garbage time, and proved to be wrong by you). The above analysis confirms this impression quantitatively with data. Instead of making the argument that Harden is terrible in garbage time, maybe it's much better to say that Harden is terrible at making unimportant shots, where the unimportant shots are defined as those if they make, will only improve the winning probability of the game by a very small amount. I know it is meaningless in the evaluation of player performance and useless to the fans or coaches or team operators, it's just for fun and starts with a bet with a friend on who is the better player in "garbage time", Harden or Bobby Brown? It's not a very serious or rigorous analysis. I found the result funny, so I posted the thread here to kind of share a meme that Brown is indeed a better "garbage time" player than Harden is.

Your quick thought of the unpolluted Team Ortg in fact have some real values in it, I am grateful you brought that up. It will take some work, but I'll be more than interested to do it when I get time.

#24 James.B.H, Nov 24, 2017
Last edited: Nov 24, 2017

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ghettocheeze Member

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James.B.H said: ↑

You made a valid point using the losing team coach's substitution pattern as a definition of garbage time, but there are lots of subjectivity in this definition as it's determined by a person, the coach. If you study all the nba games, you can find a rather objective pattern, of the probability to win the game at a certain time of the game, given certain points differential.
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You're trying too hard to stick to a misinformed understanding of what you consider "garbage time" in the NBA.

As @heypartner correctly pointed out, it is by definition when the losing coach throws in the towel/white flag, concedes the game, and pull his starters to let the scrubs get some play time, which is followed by the winning coach doing the same. There is no subjectivity here. Anything before that is part of "running up the score" and not garbage time, which is reserved for bench players on both sides facing off.

#25 ghettocheeze, Nov 24, 2017
ApacheWarrior Member

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Harden doesn’t give 2 flying fudge bars about stats in “garbage time” ; nor do I take exception to that fact

#26 ApacheWarrior, Nov 24, 2017

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James.B.H Member

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ghettocheeze said: ↑

You're trying too hard to stick to a misinformed understanding of what you consider "garbage time" in the NBA.

As @heypartner correctly pointed out, it is by definition when the losing coach throws in the towel/white flag, concedes the game, and pull his starters to let the scrubs get some play time, which is followed by the winning coach doing the same. There is no subjectivity here. Anything before that is part of "running up the score" and not garbage time, which is reserved for bench players on both sides facing off.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the comment. I think there is some miscommunication here in terms of what idea I want to convey with this thread, please refer to my previous post.

Garbage time has an objective definition, let's not worry about that. The probability defined in the way I mentioned above can be used as an objective measure of how a player's shots' outcome, make or miss can affect the outcome of a game, win or lose. One can define the importance of the shots in a game, as the amount of increase in winning probability when they are made. Shots that will improve the winning percentage by less than 2%(this number is very subjective) is defined as unimportant shots(which I call garbage time in the title, and is misleading). What this figure shows is that Harden is terrible at making unimportant shots.

As people are talking that Kyrie is great at making important shots, I wanted to put up the reverse argument that Harden is terrible at making unimportant ones. Kyrie is great in clutch time, Harden is terrible in "garbage time", that's sort of a meme.

#27 James.B.H, Nov 24, 2017
Last edited: Nov 24, 2017

ghettocheeze Member

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James.B.H said: ↑

Thanks for the comment. I think there is some miscommunication here in terms what idea I want to convey with this thread, please refer to my previous post.

Garbage time has an objective definition, let's not worry about that. The probability defined in the way I mentioned above can be used as an objective measure of how a player's shots' outcome, make or miss can affect the outcome of a game, win or lose. One can define the importance of the shots in a game, as the amount of increase in winning probability when they are made. Shots that will improve the winning percentage by less than 2%(this number is very subjective) is defined as unimportant shots(which I call garbage time in the title, and is misleading). What this figure shows is that Harden is terrible at making unimportant shots.
Click to expand...

First, thanks for trying to explain yourself in a civilized manner. I understand you might have difficulties expressing your thoughts in English as you stated above. Nonetheless, I think I now understand what you are trying to say.

Yes, Harden is not very good when the game is over especially during a blowout. A lot of that is D'Antoni letting him stay in the game like he did against the Suns when Harden was trying too hard to get his 50 points. Harden kept forcing shots and it didn't work and he only got 48, which Paul joked about after the game by saying, "Who doesn't get to 50?"

So there I agree with you. Stat-padding Harden is not very efficient, but he doesn't need to be. Although, Harden could mop up better and help his case for MVP like Westbrook did last year.

Imagine Harden staying in blowout games so he can grab a few extra rebounds and boost his averages to a triple-double? Adam Silver's shriveled head would explode for sure.

#28 ghettocheeze, Nov 24, 2017

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James.B.H Member

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ghettocheeze said: ↑

First, thanks for trying to explain yourself in a civilized manner. I understand you might have difficulties expressing your thoughts in English as you stated above. Nonetheless, I think I now understand what you are trying to say.

Yes, Harden is not very good when the game is over especially during a blowout. A lot of that is D'Antoni letting him stay in the game like he did against the Suns when Harden was trying too hard to get his 50 points. Harden kept forcing shots and it didn't work and he only got 48, which Paul joked about after the game by saying, "Who doesn't get to 50?"

So there I agree with you. Stat-padding Harden is not very efficient, but he doesn't need to be. Although, Harden could mop up better and help his case for MVP like Westbrook did last year.

Imagine Harden staying in blowout games so he can grab a few extra rebounds and boost his averages to a triple-double? Adam Silver's shriveled head would explode for sure.
Click to expand...

I am glad you helped me straight things up. I have been in the US for almost 4 years, talking is no problem, but writing things down in a clear and logical manner can still be very painful for me, especially when it comes to how the prepositions should be used properly.

Yeah, Harden is really inefficient in padding stats, it has zero influence on the team's success, but I believe it costs him the MVP last year.

#29 James.B.H, Nov 24, 2017

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tycoonchip Member

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James harden just needs to stop playing garbage time minutes. Last thing we need is for him to get hurt at all.

#30 tycoonchip, Nov 25, 2017

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daywalker02 Member

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Said It All. He dun Care about Garbage Time.

#31 daywalker02, Nov 25, 2017
RockWest Member

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Oh no we lost the best garbage minute hero in Lou Williams. What are we gonna do during garbage minutes?

#32 RockWest, Nov 25, 2017
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napalm_black said: ↑

It looks like it's a shame that we lost Lou Williams - the REAL garbage time MVP. He could've balanced out our garbage time production a lot more. We could be winning by 30 instead of 20!
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No chance if Garbage Mamba is in.

#33 RockWest, Nov 25, 2017

oelman44 Member

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This is impressive, considering most of his production is outside of garbage time, no?

#34 oelman44, Nov 25, 2017
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This thread suddenly makes perfect sense. He just killed a 50%+ shooting performance ****ing around in garbage time.

#35 Drogba, Nov 25, 2017

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Rox11 Member

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So the new excuse I heard for starters playing garbage time is “they need to gel”

#36 Rox11, Nov 25, 2017

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durvasa Member

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There is one thing here that is cause for some concern. Our poor fourth quarters keeps our main guys in the floor longer than I’d like. It isn’t so much that Harden and company play poorly in garbage time, but rather we play poorly when we have an opportunity to really put the game away in the fourth quarters which prevents garbage time from occurring.

#37 durvasa, Nov 26, 2017

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bongman Member

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Rox11 said: ↑

So the new excuse I heard for starters playing garbage time is “they need to gel”
Click to expand...

To me, GB time is the best time to practice plays on a real game. That last CP3 to Harden ooop was a good example

#38 bongman, Nov 26, 2017

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These stats are garbage time

#39 crossover, Nov 26, 2017
don grahamleone Member

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Who cares about the definition of garbage time at this point in the thread. Does it change the statistics for Harden late in the game with a big lead?

Why are we ignoring the bigger picture? Maybe Harden should wait until it's an 11 point lead to come back in? That might save his legs moving towards the playoffs? Maybe it's better to keep the rotation as is? That's worthy of discussion. The definition of garbage time hasn't created any interesting conversation on the original stats posted.

Are these stats consistent with prior seasons? Any of this ever lead to a loss?

#40 don grahamleone, Nov 26, 2017

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