Harden's MVP probability reaches historical peak, per BBR

Harden's TO% per BBR is down to 16.6%. It was 19.5% last year. This is a 15% drop. Meanwhile his usage is up to 36.3%, a career high and compared to 34.2% last year. This is a 6% rise.

As a matter of fact, if you factor his TO% to USG%, the ratio is currently 0.457. This is the lowest ratio as compared to EVERY YEAR he's been a Rocket at year-end. Last year the ratio was 0.570. So his TO% as a function of his usage has effectively declined 20% so far this year.

The above also happens to ignore AST%, where he is also at a career high at 52.2%.

So... he has the ball in his hands more, is turning it over less, and assisting more. On an x:y basis, his improvement is significant and meaningful.

You really were just throwing out some random crap right??

 

Random crap?

His improvement this year doesn’t mean the previous years were inadequate.

His production and possession time when weighted against his turnovers has been more than fine every single year here, yet we have had to endure years of whining about it unnecessarily.

 

It really doesn't change. Stats and Winning has always been the criteria.

The best player on the best team doesn't always win, and the best stats don't always win. It's a combination. Both instances Harden lost were vs major history - 2015 was historic winning and stats, 2017 was Super historic stats and winning.

 

And the narrative coming in wasn't in James Harden's favor so I guess he's already behind!

 

Harden's numbers are going to dip with Paul in the lineup. Maybe he picks up some efficiency by some offensive possessions where Paul creates for him, but in general the stat line for Harden will fall a bit opening the door for all the "look at Giannis' numbers" voters.

 

I will say this about Giannis - his scoring stats are insane considering how few 3s he makes.

 

No, they have not been fine. Of course, your original comment was subjective, so there's no real way to respond. Hence resorting to stats. And resorting to stats, under the theory that this is James' best season/start by far and in line with this thread, the time in his career where he is most clearly THE top MVP candidate, the fact that he's protecting the ball, relative to usage, BETTER than he has in his entire Rockets history, ABSOLUTELY factors into that.

His prior years being acceptable is completely opinion. But certainly, as compared to basically 99% of all time great players throughout history, his TO%, and more importantly his TO% as compared to usage, was very high. It's basically him and Westbrook. It's also noteworthy that Harden has had crazy high turnover games in critical playoff moments (9 in game 5 against Spurs last year, 6 in game 6, 12 in elimination game against warriors, 9 in game 1 against the clippers that year, etc.).

I'm ok with the idea of Harden being high usage, and such an open passer, and sometimes having to and be willing to take passing risks to make the offense go. He had a pocket pass of a PnR with Capela last night where Capela judt didn't do his classic roll and wasn't where Harden thought he would be... that's a Harden turnover that happens and is ok. But absolutely the idea that "sure, he gets a lot of turnovers, but it's ok, he's got the ball in his hands so much and is creating so much so it's ok" played into high turnover, problematic playoff games.

I anticipated lower turnovers this year via lower usage.
I did not anticipate lower turnovers and MEANINGFULLY lower turnover% all with higher usage.

So bravo to James. This is a MEANINGFUL improvement in an area that's needed it.

Unfortunately the team is still last in the league in turnovers/game.... but CP3 hasn't played barely.

 

Don't forget #1 in PPG, APG, and points created/game

 

He's a freakish defender too, but Bucks won't win enough games in the East. Harden just has to maintain a 27 PER and win 60. Rockets should win 60.

 

Compare this to ESPN's Forecast to see how Narrative comes into play.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/21438431/nba-predictions-espn-experts-mvp-best-rookie-finals-more

Who will win the 2017-18 MVP award?
1. James Harden HOU 36.8
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 23.7
3. LeBron James CLE 18.4
4. Kevin Durant GSW 10.5
5. Kyrie Irving BOS 10.5

 

OP not getting enough @RocketsTruth in his diet. Reported.

 

Sadly for Harden it feels like the only way he’ll win MVP is if he averages 35 a game for the season while having a streak of 5 games in a row scoring 50 points. And even then it’s probably not enough.

#narrative
#agenda
#kyriecarryingtheceltics
#antetepoopookumnpoformvp

 

I think they will win a healthy number of games but to your point - the east is kind of weak so a 50 win team out East is like a 35 win team in the West.

 

If he does win (and he should but we know the media) they will probably factor in the hurricane and add an asterisk like when the Rockets won the championship and Jordan somehow was still not in the league on the 2nd one.

It'll be similar to the Astros winning, but even less coverage. The media sucks

 

That's what's stupid on Kyrie, Celtics weren't bad last year, I mean Kyrie hasn't even played a few games and their streak is still going, of course the media will have you believe the flat earth dude is getting 40/10/10 or something... And then Look at the silliness with Lonzo, trying to will him to getting more than 5 points.. I'm glad Harden is going to basically silence the media w/ his play. Especially with the current train wreck in OKC

 

Yeah, I just "read" ESPN's panel of experts' predictions and James is only at 36.8%. I'm like, huh? Does that defensive Youtube clip carry over from year to year? There's absolutely no reason that anyone should be ahead of him right now.

 

If Celtics keep it up for the entire season , Kyrie is winning the MVP.

 

Do I really need to point that the problem with that statement?

It is a forecast on who will win by season's end. Not who should win based on performance to date. Totally different things..

 

If the Celtics go 79-2, I agree.

 

Doesn't have to be that record.

If Celtics finish 1st in the Eastern conference and even if they finish behind Rockets or Warriors by a few games, I think Kyrie will win it for doing it without Gordon Hayward for the season.

Emotional pick....stick it to LeBron story...Harden's personality...whatever you want to to call it.