Rogelio Armenteros had a great season at Corpus/Fresno. High K rate, low whip. He should be in the mix as well.
Remember that for the regular season, the Astros basically assume that they'll be needing 7-8 guys to make frequent starts over the course of the year. Of course some of those opportunities will go to Armenteros and Whitley. But obviously that approach was successful based on the results of last year and over time may prove a viable alternative to the "stock up five shutout bullpen arms" approach to the playoffs. When it came down to it our starters were better than our relievers, so you saw games 3, 4, and 7 featuring exclusively tandem-capable guys.
Verlander Keuchel Morton McCullers McHugh Peacock is the 6th starter. Depending on who ST shakes out, if everyone is healthy and pitching well I would be open to starting out in a 6 man rotation until somebody starts to falter or gets hurt. Musgrove is in the bullpen. He was too valuable there and they need him there. Devenski, Harris, and Giles are the only locks so they need relief arms, although for now I hope they address that without making Martes a reliever. The AAA rotation would be Martes, Paulino, Armenteros, Rodgers, and Deetz. I would also be open to moving Feliz back into the rotation (replacing Deetz). Whitley and C Perez could force their way to AAA with 1-2 good months in AA, and be ready for Houston by July if everything goes perfectly. The AAA pen will also be stacked with Gustave, Guduan, Feliz, Hoyt, Ferrell, and McCurry all slotted there, although I expect at least one of those guys to make the big league roster. Fiers is very likely to be traded. His salary makes him somewhat of a burden on Houston given their glut of SP, and there are enough teams desperate for innings eaters that someone will give up something for him.
I like the idea of McHugh + prospect for Britton. I'd trade Fiers as well. I think Peacock, Paulino and Armenteros are more than enough organizational SP depth should a starter get injured. Sign McGee. If Whitley continues balling out, I'd love to see him up in some capacity - August, September, October in a Roy Oswalt rookie season bullpen role would be great. Rotation: Verlander Keuchel Morton McCullers Martes Bullpen: Peacock Feliz Devenski Musgrove Harris McGee Giles Britton
Definite top 5: 1. Verlander 2. Keuchel 3. LMJ 4. Morton 5. McCugh (I think it's easy to forget that if McCugh is healthy/right for a full season he's a very solid pitcher. Especially for the #5 spot in a rotation.) Extra 2-3 that will be needed due to injuries: 1. Peacock 2. Martes 3. Musgrove The only way I see Whitley getting starts for us this summer is if 3-4 of the guys listed above are hurt at the same time AND Whitley is having another lights out season between AA and AAA. I think 2019 is a very realistic timetable for him. Or, if he is dominating in AA/AAA, and we need bullpen help, I could see him being a September call up and potentially making the playoff roster (let's just assume we make the playoffs again) if he proves he can be effective out of the bullpen.
Agreed. Whoever the #6/7... guys are, it's a pretty safe bet that there will be ~20 starts made by someone not in the OD starting rotation. I think Musgrove has found his home in the pen & Peacock starts the season there. Martes is the wild card to me. Like you said, this is all premature e-speculation.
I don't see him as a rotation lock either. I think the Astros understand they have a bunch of high upside, but volatile options in the rotation and will probably have 1-2 starters on IR at a time. I see next season's rotation going much the same way this year's did, although hopefully it doesn't come down to Fiers and the kitchen sink again.
Just saw this thread. I don't see it short sighted at all putting LMJ as a starter. If he gets hurt, you put someone else in. If he's healthy in playoffs, his arm will be likely more suited for more innings in the playoffs regardless of his role if he's stretched out as a starter in the regular season. If he can't go in the playoffs, send in Morton as a starter. LMJ has basically only been cold when he's been banged up. Roster spots and money are reasons. Astros will likely need 9-10 starters. It is much easier keeping a starter stretched out in the minors than as a swing man. I could see McHugh traded as the Astros may not like him as a swing man for the money. If Peacock starts and Astros keep McHugh, I hope the Astros keep McHugh at a somewhat regular pace making sure he gets 3-4 innings in a game once every 5-7 days.
