Pick 5 for Opening Day.. each had 4+ starts in 2017 -- except Rodgers (2017 WAR for Astros in parenthesis): Justin Verlander (1.8) Dallas Keuchel (3.9) Charlie Morton (1.8) Lance McCullers (0.9) Brad Peacock (3.0) Collin McHugh (1.2) Frances Martes (-0.9) David Paulino (-0.4) Mike Fiers (-0.6) Brady Rodgers (NA) Joe Musgrove (0.1)
Barring injury, trade, or acquisition, I think it's a pretty clear cut 5: Verlander Keuchel McCullers Morton McHugh Not sure what they think of Peacock (or Musgrove for that matter) and whether he'd be #6 or exclusively bullpen going forward.
I'd get in LMJ's ear and see if he has any interest in closing and let Peacock, Martes and McHugh batlle for 4 and 5 after JV, DK and Uncle Charlie.
I'm looking at Martes as the guy who could rapidly improve and find himself in the rotation. Not even thinking about the glut because his stuff is just so good.
Verlander Keuchel Morton McCullers Peacock Martes and Musgrove remain in the pen. McHugh is traded in a package for a reliever. Fiers is non-tendered. Rodgers missed nearly all of 2017, along with Paulino. Both start in AAA.
1. Verlander 2. Keuchel 3. McCullers 4. Morton 5. Peacock One of Peacock or McHugh starts out in the bullpen. It's tough because peacock is better suited for a relief role compared with Colin. But he also, at this point, is simply the better pitcher. I think they start with Peacock in the rotation. They're lucky to have this depth and will need both next year. Martes starts as a SP in AAA. Fiers is gone. Musgrove is probably a bullpen arm going forward--which he looks great at. Paulino too. Rodgers is depth. Whitley hopefully forces the issue in about July.
Why trade McHugh for a reliever... when some of our potential starters can already do better than who is available out there...? We are in a position where we can deal a starter for long-term depth. I am especially concerned about the catching prospects in the organization.
Use McHugh as the 6th starter that gets a ton of starts just because of injuries and rest and injury. Keep Musgrove as a setup guy.
1. Verlander 2. Keuchel 3. McCullers 4. Morton 5. McHugh Swingman: Peacock Amount of time that all six will be healthy will probably be very small over the course of the season so deciding between McHugh or Peacock for #5 won't matter much. Start Martes in AAA as a starter then call him up when two of the above are injured at the same time.
1. JV 2. Kuechel 3. McCullers 4. Morton 5. Peacock McHugh and Fiers are traded, Martes starts out in the bullpen. Whitley will be starting by July 4th and Britton for McHugh and a prospect like Adcock or Thorton in a trade are my predictions. Whitley is going to be a lot like McCullers when he came up his rookie season.
Not so sure about that. Whitley is more likely. But ehh. I want Keuchel gone after this year. Martes and Whitley are the future of the rotation. LMJ isn’t a starter. The guy is too injury prone and can’t sustain his stuff over a year. He’s a high leverage bullpen guy if there ever was one. Paulino is interesting to me. He didn’t look too good last year and then got busted for PED’s. I wanna see what he has to offer if anything. 1)Verlander 2)Keuchel 3)McCullers 4)Morton 5)McHugh Long/middle relievers: Peacock, Martes, Devo, Musgrove One inning guys: Hoyt, Harris, Feliz, Giles Ready for immediate call up: Paulino We desperately need a lefty.
Absolutely no reason to trade any of the top 6. You will need at least 7 starters to get through the season given the proven fragility of these guys. Martes can start at AAA, he will probably be the next man up after the top 6. A spot will be made for Whitley if/when he shows he is ready for it. Musgrove is a reliever, let him concentrate on getting as good as possible at that. Fiers is shipped out, and Paulino will have to earn any possible innings starting in AAA.
I have no doubt the rotation will be outstanding. HOWEVAH, it's always the injuries that seem to creep up that gets us.
Luhnow is already on record saying they'll need eight starters throughout the regular season (that's a lot of innings to eat up). DK, Verlander and Morton are definitely the top three. McCullers more then likely will have some health issues (so they probably will put him on the DL a couple of times like they did this past yr even if he's not really hurt to save his arm for the playoffs). Also remember they were extremely fortunate that Morton had 25 starts this yr and didn't spend much time on the DL. Can he do that next yr? Peacock will do what he did this past season and that's swing back and forth between starting and the pen. His arm can handle it. DK, JV, Morton, LMJ, Peacock, and McHugh are 6 of the eight. Will be interesting to see who the other two will be.
The top 4 are clear cut. Between Peacock & McHugh for 5th spot. Given Morton and LMJ will spend time on DL, They would all get 20+ starts.
I think it'd be incredibly short sighted to not have LMJ start until he proves he absolutely can't. Gotta play the long game on LMJ, Martes, Musgrove, and Paulino. Gotta hope atleast 2 are still starters after Verlander/Keuche/Morton/McHugh are gone.
Also incredibly short sighted to pencil in LMJ as a rotation lock. LMJ for the last three years has started 22, 14 and 22 games. To be charitable, LMJ has had runs of hot and cold, in his starts. There needs to be a Plan B, where the expectation is that LMJ is in and out of the lineup. Going forward, the Astros may very repeat 2017 LMJ usage, where he is on and off the IR, but prime for the playoffs.
