So far, we're 9-4. We're 8-2 against teams at .500 or below and 1-2 against teams above .500. This is bad news because we play the majority of our games, where there are only two teams below .500. There are 23 games left against sub .500 teams and a whopping 46 against teams over .500. Extrapolating those winning percentages over the rest of the season, we should go 18-5 against the teams below .500 and 15-31 against the teams above .500, which will put us at 42-40 to end the season, not even close to a playoff spot in the rugged Western Conference... Sorry everybody. As you know, my predictions are as solid as they come. Lottery Season V is upon us, and there's nothing we can do about it.
It is way too early to make extrapolations off of records. Give me a break. You think 3 games against above .500 teams is enough to know how this team will do?
Your very complicated projections don't factor in season adjustments that may or may not make us a better team, or, in season adjustments and/or injuries that may or may not make our opponents better on a given night, or, over the course of the season, which would have a direct effect on whether or not they are above, at, or below .500. 6 of the above .500 teams, are a 2 game losing streak from being at, or below .500. According to your formula, that is an 18 game swing, of which, based on our record so far this year against at/below .500 teams, would be an approximate 12 game swing. So by the end of the week, we might just be on pace to win 54 games instead of 42 based on your lil formula. Furthermore, if we win are next 3 games, which are all against above .500 teams, then your projection changes from 15-31 wins against above .500 teams, to 28-18 against above .500 teams, which would leave us with a season ending total of 55 wins. Wow. What a reason to actually play out the season instead of making a flawed projection based on a sampling off less than 16% of an 82 game season.
The team should also be getting better throughout the year due to new coach. Team needs more time to gell.
I'm not worried about the games against plus .500 teams. As long as we take care of business against the below .500 teams in the league and upset a few of the better teams we'll be fine. A mediocre team beats teams they shouldn't and loses to teams they should beat. We are not a mediocre team and JVG's teams do not lose to bad teams.
Or, you could say we're 5-1 at home and 4-3 on the road. Therefore,they finish 35-6 at home, and 23-18 on the road. Voila, a 58 win season. Let's average that with A-Train's lowball 42 win season and settle at 50 wins. Everybody happy?
ROFLMAO!!!!!!!! although i hate to say that a-train's projections are usually correct. let's hope this time his theory is a little to flawed
Train, to be a little bit more complete you could have told us what the respective records of the other western conference teams were. If most of them have records that resemble ours then your point is somewhat mute. Also you could have told us how you factor in MoT, EG, Pike, and Ad absences. How do you deal with 500 team when we played them but not 500 teams now or do not remain 500 in the future? Almost 20% of the season is gone now and what you are seeing is increasingly likely to be the norm. Your Houston Rockets is now considered the best defensive team in the league and I am confident that our offfensive game will be much improved if it is not already. Yao appears to be better conditioned and the offensive options are delightfully varied and potent. In fact we have not showed it yet but I believe we are going to be as offensively varied and potent as the Kings, Mavs and the Hall-of-Fame-laden Lakers, non of which are able to match us defensively.
A-Train, perhaps we should change your moniker from "Running with Scissors" to "One Star." Things to ponder.
hahahah! this is soooo funny! a-train is a very learned and wise prognosticator...kinda like that commentator from the clippers game last night. he said that some scrub was on fire because he scored 4 pts in 3 minutes, and then went on to state that if he could get more playing time, we could average 50 pts a game at that rate. fantastic powers of deduction! and the math skills? amazing.
Exactly. If we would have done that last year instead of losing to all 4 last place teams (and the clippers twice), we would have won 49 games instead of 43. Or something like that...
I'm not too worried about teams above .500 in the East. We should be able to take at least half of those IMO. It's the wild, wild West that we should be concerned about. Dallas, LA, San Antonio, Sacramento(w/Webber), Minnesota and Portland are going to be our strongest competition. You can even throw in Memphis for kicks since they took one from us already. All in all, I am expecting a minimum of 48 wins(possibly as much at 51) this season. Whether that(48) will get us into the playoffs remains to be seen.
You'll notice how Train hasn't posted again in the thread. He must enjoy playing devil's advocate. Oh, yeah....and what an annoying thread. We'll be OK, but it will take a trade, and I think one will happy.
Well if take the number of threads he's started since the new rating system has begun and divide that by the total number of stars he's recieved, then maybe, maybe no.
