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[Adv Stats] How the Rockets look on Deep 3s vs Others

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by heypartner, Sep 28, 2017.

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  1. heypartner

    heypartner Member

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    @Will Not quite the Gravity chart you mentioned wanting to see, but this is cool enough for Morey to retweet.



    Ryno, EGo are gawds. Harden and Lou made the list, too.

    Be careful reading the X-Axis....it's Per 70, not Per 100. I assume because Per 70 is actually closer to real Per Game numbers as a median amount of possession most players play.


    [​IMG]
     
    #1 heypartner, Sep 28, 2017
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  2. Will

    Will Clutch Crew
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    Great chart. We have 2 of the top 4, and 4 of the top 9! Plus Daniels. Could Morey's strategy be more obvious?

    Odd that he chose deep 3PA/70 as the x axis. Why not deep 3PM/70? That would be the more salient stat, to keep the y axis in perspective.
     
    #2 Will, Sep 28, 2017
  3. phantoman

    phantoman Member

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    This is why Vegas still thinks we are number 2 in the West. our shooters take the defenders out past the 3pt line and cause havoc for help defenders. This should give CP3/Harden and Capella 1 on 1 opportunities at the rim or easy drop off dunks. and the corner 3 defenders will have rotate to the rim the most since they have the shortest distance to cover. It will be hard to cover since we have good Corner 3 shooters....the endless possibilities!!!
     
    #3 phantoman, Sep 28, 2017
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  4. Tom Bombadillo

    Tom Bombadillo Member

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    HUGE when you run Mike D'Antoni's offense. We have two of the best.
     
    #4 Tom Bombadillo, Sep 28, 2017
  5. valorita

    valorita Member

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    Maybe i am reading the chart wrong but I wonder what Eric and especially Ryan's 3pt % are when they are within 1 foot of the three point line. My point is that if pur guys are shooting 3-8% lower because they are further out, where is the line that you draw to negate the spacing you create by moving back vs the drop in accuracy?
     
    #5 valorita, Sep 28, 2017
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  6. apollo33

    apollo33 Member

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    but you gotta consider how many shots wouldn't be taken at all if Anderson and Gordon were shooting closer to the three point line because they are covered
     
    #6 apollo33, Sep 28, 2017
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  7. topfive

    topfive CF OG

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    I'm only seeing 3 of the top 9. Who am I missing? :confused:
     
    #7 topfive, Sep 28, 2017
  8. valorita

    valorita Member

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    Thats pretty easy to determine.
    Calculate the points generated by these far threes and compare to our average points per shot.
    If lower, then you have to be able to generate a better shot.
    Same principle for midrange etc.
    If you want to individualize it, you can do it by player and do it across distance and other factors such as time left on the shot clock etc.
     
    #8 valorita, Sep 28, 2017
  9. jchu14

    jchu14 Member

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    Lou Will?
     
    #9 jchu14, Sep 28, 2017
  10. topfive

    topfive CF OG

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    Could be, but it's going to be awfully hard to work him into a lineup this year. :)
     
    #10 topfive, Sep 28, 2017
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  11. Will

    Will Clutch Crew
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    Ha, yes. My bad. I was looking at this chart from the standpoint of Morey's strategy, not who's still on the roster. There are 5 Moreys and ex-Moreys here, if you count Daniels and Williams. So, yeah, we now have only 3 of the 9. But Morey acquired 5 of the 9, which confirms that he pays a lot of attention to deep 3's.
     
    #11 Will, Sep 28, 2017
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  12. heypartner

    heypartner Member

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    Closer doesn't mean better. How contested you are makes a difference, too.

    Plus, they aren't actually shooting 3-8% lower, if you only look at the Above the Break 3, which is the only place where you can even back up. The corner threes have no room to back up, and it's harder to get open there.

    So, on Above the Break threes, where you can shoot from 3 ft back, or just 1 ft back or right on the line, here is the numbers

    Above the Break​
    • Anderson 26ft+ percentages of ~36.5% is <2% different than overall. Pretty negligible.
    • Gordon seems to shoot the same no matter how far back. The chart in OP looks to be 37-38%
    [​IMG]
     
    #12 heypartner, Sep 28, 2017
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  13. napalm06

    napalm06 Huge Flopping Fan

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    Gordon half-court shot 2018 strategy confirmed.
     
    #13 napalm06, Sep 28, 2017
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  14. bulkatron

    bulkatron Member

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    3PM gives you redundant information with 3FG%. Using FGA and 3FG%, you can calculate 3PM/70.
     
    #14 bulkatron, Sep 28, 2017
  15. heypartner

    heypartner Member

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    The eFG% of Ryan and EGo in that chart is 54-56%. That is pretty damn good.

    It's not really true to say compare to our average points per shot, because the game forces teams to take different shots. As a coach, if you actually say, "Don't shoot anything that is less than our average" then you are going to be facing a lot of shot clock violations.

    Alley oops and drives inflate the team average, but they need 3s for spacing

    You can't always shoot an alley-oop, and James can't always shoot free throws, and they really push up our average. But these long threes help us shoot more alley-oops and create more Harden drives. They shouldn't be treated as lessor shots, as if the defense lets you do what you want.

    Also, Harden made 50% (fifty percent) of our free throws. He can't always shoot. So, comparing team PPS to Ryan and EGo long 3s is comparing them to a ton of Harden free throws relative to the team....as Ryan and EGo likely have zero free throw points from those long threes.

    Here's PPS on chart above. Much better than many league average shots from other zones

    It is roughly 3p% times three for points per shot. Ryan is roughly 1.08 in that chart, and EGo 1.12. If you are like me, and study team numbers and numbers from different shooting zones, those are good numbers. It's unfair to compare to team PPS.

    point is, those are MUCH better numbers than most all 2pt shots except at the rim. All of them, not just mid-range and long 2s.
     
    #15 heypartner, Sep 28, 2017
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2017
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  16. bulkatron

    bulkatron Member

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    Agreed. The thing about averages is that half the time, you're going to be taking a below average shot. You need variety to run an effective offense, particularly in the half-court in the postseason as pace slows. Some of these shots are less efficient, but the mix-up pays dividends by allowing a greater percentage of high-quality shots. The flip side is you don't want to take a ton of these either because they are undoubtedly less efficient. But every champion has had myriad different looks to keep defenses guessing. Can't go corner 3/dunk every play. Makes us really easy to defend - see the last 5 games of the SAS series.
     
    #16 bulkatron, Sep 28, 2017
  17. bratna8

    bratna8 Member

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    This chart didn't help in the Spurs series
     
    #17 bratna8, Sep 28, 2017
  18. chenjy9

    chenjy9 Numbers Don't Lie
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    Hard to drive the offense when the engine stalls out.
     
    #18 chenjy9, Sep 28, 2017
  19. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    i guess bw the two Ryno/EG shooting 40% from 3 in that series isn't considered as help. next....
     
    #19 YOLO, Sep 28, 2017
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  20. heypartner

    heypartner Member

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    oops double post
     
    #20 heypartner, Sep 28, 2017
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