Okay, my assumptions might be totally flawed, but I was consistent for each team. I ran down the remaining scheduled games for rankings 6-11 (though I need to do Denver). I didn't take into account conference yet. Nor have I factored in home/away games yet. I broke up each team's opponent into 'playoff strong', 'playoff weak'(probably not the right word), 'lottery strong' and 'lottery weak'. In the West, LAL, SAC, UTA, POR and SAS are strong PO teams, PHO, DAL and MIN are weak playoff teams. Seattle, Denver and Houston are 'Lottery Strong', everyone else is 'Lottery Weak'. In the East, NYK, MIA, PHI and MIL are playoff strong. BOS, ORL, IND (cusp by .5 game), TOR and CHA are playoff weak. I put everyone else in lottery weak for the east. Though I haven't factored in home/away games vs. various conferences... one thing should jump out immediately. The Rockets have a slew of games against 'lottery weak', whereas the rest of the crew from 20-25 losses have many more difficult games. (thanks Mango) <table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" width="500" bgcolor="6699CC"><tr bgcolor="6699CC" height="20"><td align="center"><font color="#FFFFFF" face="Verdana" size="1">Team Name</font></td><td align="center"><font color="#FFFFFF" face="Verdana" size="1">Playoff Strong</font></td><td align="center"><font color="#FFFFFF" face="Verdana" size="1">Playoff Weak</font></td><td align="center"><font color="#FFFFFF" face="Verdana" size="1">Lottery Strong</font></td><td align="center"><font color="#FFFFFF" face="Verdana" size="1">Lottery Weak</font></td></tr><tr height="20" bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><td align="center" bgcolor="B1D4E7"><font face="Verdana" size="1">Minnesota</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">10</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">5</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">8</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">7</font></td></tr><tr height="20" bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><td align="center" bgcolor="B1D4E7"><font face="Verdana" size="1">Dallas</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">11</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">8</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">3</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">8</font></td></tr><tr height="20" bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><td align="center" bgcolor="B1D4E7"><font face="Verdana" size="1">Suns</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">14</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">8</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">6</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">4</font></td></tr><tr height="20" bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><td align="center" bgcolor="B1D4E7"><font face="Verdana" size="1">Denver</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">Inc</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">Inc</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">Inc</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">Inc</font></td></tr><tr height="20" bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><td align="center" bgcolor="B1D4E7"><font face="Verdana" size="1">Sonics</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">11</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">7</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">3</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">7</font></td></tr><tr height="20" bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><td align="center" bgcolor="B1D4E7"><font face="Verdana" size="1">Rockets</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">7</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">10</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">3</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">11</font></td></tr></table> [This message has been edited by Achebe (edited February 16, 2001).]
Thanks Mango, I made the update. It looks as if the bbs randomly throws in 'breaks' throughout the actual rendered page. Thanks Again. [This message has been edited by Achebe (edited February 16, 2001).]
Achebe, Nice thread. Thank heypartner because he is the one who pointed it out to me. Mango ------------------ Spring Cleaning!!! [This message has been edited by Mango (edited February 16, 2001).]
I'll never thank heypartner for anything. One interesting thing to note by the table is that after all of the attention, after all of the hoopla... Dallas could easily fall out of the sky. I completely expect the Sonics to disintegrate shortly, but I had no idea that Dallas is vulnerable.
This is great info. Thanks for the hard work. It will be interesting to see how the final results compare to current indicators in the table. ------------------
This BBS needs more charts. I love it! Achebe, that is really cool of you to do such a fine comparison. ------------------ I am better than you.
thanks guys, I have nothing better to do for now (except for go outside, but that's always overrated).
You can get more info on Strength of Schedule at: http://www.kiva.net/~jsagarin/sports/nbasend.htm Sagarin does a good job with Football and seems to be pretty good with Basketball as well. According to that, we've had the toughest schedule in the NBA thus far. Unfortunately, the Nuggets are at #3 and Seattle is at #5. But the good news is that this means we should have basically the easiest remaining schedule of Western Conf teams. (Eastern teams play a totally different schedule, so it's difficult to compare with them) ------------------ Is it any coincidence that the Cato is the only Rocket with a temperature scale named after him? I didnt think so!!!!
Wow! nice chart! The one thing that jumps out at me is the Rockets have a significant amount of games against "playoff weak" teams. So there will be opportunities to knock down the teams who currently sit in the spots we need. ------------------ "I think the people who believed the world was flat were pretty stupid. You would think at least those living near mountains would know better." - P. Mesku
This is great stuff! Looking at Denver, though, it doesn't seem like the Rockets have that much easier a schedule. Granted, they have two more games against Playoff Weak teams instead of Playoff Strong teams, but one of Denver's Playoff Strong games is tonight against a Webber-less Sacramento. Fortunately, that difference is about the number of games the Rockets are behind Denver by. The Rockets also only have one more game than Denver in the East (12 to 11). I don't think we have a significant chance to pass Denver on the weakness of our schedule alone. ------------------
I played a little game with the sweet table you set up and gave teams from 1 point for playoff strong teams to 4 points to lottery weak teams. This came up with a weakness of schedule rating that was kind of interesting... Minn 72 Dall 68 Phoe 64 Denv 75 Seat 62 Hous 80 This would point to Relativist being correct about Denver's weak schedule, and kind of point to the teams we have a good chance of hurdling (Phoenix, Seattle). To convert this to ratings likely games won, you divide by four to get: Minn 18 Dall 17 Phoe 16.5 Denv 18.75 Seat 15.5 Hous 20 We see that Houston comes up with a total of 45 wins. So is that going to be enough? Current win totals + projected Minn 32 + 18 = 50 Dall 32 + 17 = 49 Phoe 30 + 16.5 = 47 Denv 28 + 18.75 = 47 Seat 28 + 15.5 = 44 Hous 26 + 20 = 46 It looks like teams with 47 wins are going to be really tight, according to this game. Anyway, just having fun with it. ------------------ Ex-Canuck loving life and the Rox in H-town
Awesome work Sniper. There are a million variables to punch into this... the one I enjoy the most is that, by definition, "Lottery Strong" includes only Denver, Seattle and Houston. The fact that Minnesota has alot of games against Lottery Strong (8 as of this date) implies that the Lottery Strong teams have an even more immediate impact on whether or not they play in May. shanna, thanks for that link. It's nice to confirm what the Rockets and many bbsers have been saying for a while... there's a high probability that the Rockets will be in the playoffs. ------------------ Good night everyone, Canadian or American. Just remember that we're all bound together by basketball, the internet and the mullet. (My attempts at trying to sooth over an international incident). [This message has been edited by Achebe (edited February 16, 2001).]
Well, we lost one of our away 'playoff weak' games (though Orlando will be in the east's top 4 in a matter of games). It gets easier from here on out! LOL. ------------------ Good night everyone, Canadian or American. Just remember that we're all bound together by basketball, the internet and the mullet. (My attempts at trying to sooth over an international incident).
I would keep editing my previous post, but I suppose this will be a working document as the games are played, and as trades occur. I have also started to work on the home and away portions, starting w/ Phoenix, Dallas and the Rockets. I have also updated Denver. This is alot of work, maybe I can pass it on to Heath (is it db worthy?). <table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" width="600" bgcolor="6699CC"><tr bgcolor="6699CC" height="20"><td align="center"><font color="#FFFFFF" face="Verdana" size="1">Team Name</font></td><td align="center"><font color="#FFFFFF" face="Verdana" size="1">Playoff Strong</font></td><td align="center"><font color="#FFFFFF" face="Verdana" size="1">Playoff Weak</font></td><td align="center"><font color="#FFFFFF" face="Verdana" size="1">Lottery Strong</font></td><td align="center"><font color="#FFFFFF" face="Verdana" size="1">Lottery Weak</font></td></tr><tr height="20" bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><td align="center" bgcolor="B1D4E7"><font face="Verdana" size="1">Minnesota</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">10</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">5</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">8</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">7</font></td></tr><tr height="20" bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><td align="center" bgcolor="B1D4E7"><font face="Verdana" size="1">Dallas</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">11 (home: 5 away: 6)</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">8 (home: 5 away: 3)</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">3 (home: 1 away: 2)</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">8 (home: 5 away: 3)</font></td></tr><tr height="20" bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><td align="center" bgcolor="B1D4E7"><font face="Verdana" size="1">Suns</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">14 (home: 7 away: 7)</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">8 (home: 3 away: 5)</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">6 (home: 3 away: 3)</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">4 (home: 3 away: 1)</font></td></tr><tr height="20" bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><td align="center" bgcolor="B1D4E7"><font face="Verdana" size="1">Denver</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">9</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">8</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">2</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">11</font></td></tr><tr height="20" bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><td align="center" bgcolor="B1D4E7"><font face="Verdana" size="1">Sonics</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">11</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">7</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">3</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">7</font></td></tr><tr height="20" bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><td align="center" bgcolor="B1D4E7"><font face="Verdana" size="1">Rockets</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">7 (home: 3 away: 4)</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">10 (home: 6 away: 4)</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">3 (home: 2 away: 1)</font></td><td align="center"><font face="Verdana" size="1">11 (home: 5 away: 6)</font></td></tr></table> [This message has been edited by Achebe (edited February 16, 2001).]
This is a great thread. Don't want to see it die. Predictions for rest of February: Denver: Sun 18 Washington Tue 20 @Portland Wed 21 @Seattle Sat 24 Atlanta Mon 26 Orlando Wed 28 L.A.Lakers My prediction: 3-3 Record: 31-28 Seattle: Wed 21 Denver Fri 23 Utah Mon 26 @Boston Tue 27 @New York My prediction: 2-2 Record: 30-28 Phoenix: Sun 18 @Philadelphia Tue 20 @Orlando Wed 21 @Miami Fri 23 @New York Sun 25 Utah Wed 28 Orlando My prediction: 2-4 Record: 32-24 Houston: Tue 20 Boston Wed 21 @Minnesota Fri 23 Orlando Mon 26 Portland Wed 28 @Chicago My prediction: 3-2 Record: 30-28 I'm going a little optimistic for all teams. Before Nugzfan starts, yes, I'm biased toward my own team, and so is everyone on this board. ;p With that out of the way, I'd like to hear what you guys think. ------------------
I think that looks realistic enough. I like that Phoenix is on the road against the tougher East teams. Their road record is not very impressive...If it does come down to this by the end of February - the #8 spot is wide open. ------------------ "Weathermen are simply con-artists with radar equipment. A 50 percent chance of rain? That's the same as saying 'maybe, maybe not.' I could tell you that!" - P. Mesku
Nice Thread Achebe I want copyright though, same idea breaking up the games as my recent thread http://bbs.clutchcity.net/ubb/Forum3/HTML/010959.html ------------------ CUT Tino These Heaves are just getting Ridiculous!
From my reading of International Copyright Law Smeg: No copyright infringement has occurred if any of the following are true: a) the defendant has improved upon the work with a chart. b) the defendant is an American, and the plaintiff is not. Now it's very clear that I have reworked your previous efforts with a chart (see item a. above). I'm also clearly an American and you are an Aussie (see item b. above). Sorry. Perhaps I could give a tribute to you in the acknowledgements? It's obvious that you were a major inspiration, given the fact that I posted in your thread. ------------------ Good night everyone, Canadian or American. Just remember that we're all bound together by basketball, the internet and the mullet. (My attempts at trying to sooth over an international incident). [This message has been edited by Achebe (edited February 18, 2001).]
Rockets are currently the 2nd best team when you count games played against eastern teams behind Sixers. And this is not because we have had it especially easy compared to other against eastern teams. It only gets better. At the moment we have played both games to Sixers, Knicks and Heat. When we have played our home games vs Celtics and Magic this week we have played all games against the 5 best* current eastern teams. After this it is only scrubs Ok - I guess Bucks and Pacers remains, but fact remain we do not have our eastern record because we have played the easiest eastern teams. Other Western "playoff" teams are falling like flies to the east. Ok - an exaggeration, but late examples is Hawks vs Sonics, Wizards vs Denver, Pacers vs Lakers, Celtics vs Blazers, Sixers vs Suns, Celtics vs Sonics and Magic vs Rockets. All results from the previous 4 days. With these results in mind there is no need to not belive Rockets can keep their pace vs the east, while other teams might have more trouble. And as this thread show - Rockets have only easy eastern teams left to play. *) I've compared eastern teams a little different than this thread has done so far - the 5 teams mention are not the 5 top eastern teams, but they are the 5 teams with best record vs the west. This might have something to do with schedule - but then again schedule will be different however you see it. East vs West Record current: Philly 14-8 Knicks 12-8 Miami 12-9 ------------ Celts 8-9 Magic 8-10 Bucks 6-9 Hawks 6-9 Pacers 8-13 Nets 7-13 Raps 7-14 Hornets 7-14 All teams mention have infact better record against the west than Rockets (11-22) But what this clearly show is that we have already played the 3 toughest team by far twice already, so we should have an edge on other western teams in that department. ------------------ We can reach our destination, but it's still a ways away.
