'18 '19 '20 '21 '22 Gurriel 12,400,000 10,400,000 8,400,000 UFA Altuve 6,000,000 6,500,000 UFA Correa Team Contract ARB1 ARB2 ARB3 UFA Bregman TC TC ARB1 ARB2 ARB3 McCann 17,000,000 15,000,000 UFA Reddick 13,000,000 13,000,000 13,000,000 UFA Springer ARB2 ARB3 ARB UFA Beltran UFA Keuchel ARB3 UFA McCullers TC ARB1 ARB2 ARB3 UFA Morton 7,000,000 UFA McHugh ARB2 ARB3 UFA Fiers ARB2 ARB3 UFA Musgrove TC TC ARB1 ARB2 ARB3 Marisnick ARB1 ARB2 ARB3 UFA Marwin 5,125,000 UFA Gattis ARB3 UFA Aoki ARB UFA Giles ARB1 ARB2 ARB3 UFA Sipp 6,000,000 UFA Devo TC ARB1 ARB2 ARB3 Harris 2,800,000 5,500,000 UFA Luke UFA Peacock ARB2 ARB3 ARB UFA Feliz TC ARB1 ARB2 ARB3 These numbers/contracts are according to Spotrac.
Gotta extend Altuve, probably going to have to let Keuchel walk after next season. Too much time before any other core guys will be free agents to speculate what should happen, too much can change. But gotta pay Altuve.
It will be very disappointing if Houston can't have a payroll to keep the core together. Nice to see the Beltran salary come off the books after this year...I wonder who the DH will be in 2018?
Realistically, if everyone stays as good as they are right now, I don't think there's a team in baseball that could or would be able to pay all 5 of Springer, Correa, Altuve, Keuchel and McCullers as free agents, not to mention the other guys. All of those guys could be $20MM+ per year players. The Yankees and Red Sox right now have 3 of those each. Dodgers have 1. (There are only 35 $20+MM/yr players in all of baseball.) Those are the 3 teams with the highest overall payrolls right now.
Until one or both of those teams throw the bank at Harper and Machado... Right now the 10th highest payroll is $175M (What I see as a reasonable payroll ranking for the Astros). It seems reasonable that with inflation this number will be ~$200M in three years. That would leave about $75M to fill out the other 20 roster spots. Will they have to let some mid-level salary guys walk away (Gurriel, Reddick, etc.)? Yes, but I trust that they can prevent black holes in the lineup with bargains and the farm.
That's an average of $3.75MM per player for those other 20 spots, and that's assuming all 5 of those guys make exactly $20MM, which is highly unlikely - that was just the floor of their value if they stay at this quality. But if you're assuming 15% inflation between now and 2020, then everyone's wages are going up too. If someone like Correa is projected as $30MM now, then he'd be projected at $34MM then. Assuming an average of $25MM for each player (still potentially low if Correa gets $30+), that's $125MM, leaving $50MM in your projected overall payroll, or $2.5MM per player. You'd have holes everywhere in the lineup. For comparison, have 15 players over that number now. You'd have to field a team with those 5 stars, and 20 farm players, with no flexibility to improve the team outside of hoping for the best.
after 3 world series wins, McCann will retire, money comes off. Reddick expires, makes way for Tucker, not preston. Gurriel becomes hitting coach for marlins, that contract is now gone. Sipp will be gone. Beltran stays in houston after the first world series to become team consultant, that contract is gone. Dallas' contract will almost be up by the time you have to pay correa. I think you can keep Springer, tuve, carlos and lance even if you have to blind us with more ad banners inside mmp. Maybe one or two ads on the under armour uniforms. 2019 line up. (in hinch's beautiful handwriting) alex springer Tuve Carlos Tucker Fisher F.A Foreign player catcher A. J reed(i'm kidding) ------------------------------------------------------------- broadcasting booth, Kalas, sparks and Julia sideline reporter: Brianna, the hot sales rep.(she was promoted) *Marwin is offered crazy jack by the Dodgers. Becomes perennial all star for them.
Realistically Houston can stomach 2-3 "max" ($150M+) free agents. Correa and Altuve are $200M+ players, and if he keeps this up, Springer will be as well. Keuchel and McCullers will depend on their health, but assuming he's healthy and pitches well next season, Keuchel will get at least $150M. McCullers could get much more depending on how he fares. I think Luhnow will be very reluctant to tie that much money to aging arms with injury history. Best case, Altuve and Correa go into the Hall together as Astros.
I already inflated to $125M for those 5. I look at it like this in 2021/2022 timeframe: $125M - Keuchel, Altuve, Springer, McCullers, Correa $5M - 8xMin Salary <3 year experience players (similar to 2017 Astros) $70M - Remaining for 12 roster spots or ~$5.8M average
Let's see what happens in 2017 and 2018 first (our freebie years). If we win WS, heck yea, we will re-sign Keuchel and Tuve to try to win again while we have other guys signed up for cheap.
It's like Sophie's Choice figuring out which of these core guys we will keep. Can't keep them all. Personally I rank it as: 1. Correa 2. Altuve ----------- 3. Springer 4. McCullers 5. Keuchel And this is coming from a fan of pitching more than hitting. My favorite player ever is Pedro. And even then I acknowledge that hitters are more important and more durable. Sometimes with pitching you can have absolute no doubter aces. But which one turns into a Justin Verlander / Tim Hudson / Felix Hernandez (durable, borderline HOF), and which one turns into a Rich Harden / Mark Mulder / Mark Prior / Barry Zito / Matt Cain (incredible stuff, unfortunately viewed as a disappointment) no one can tell. I think 2016 showed us how thin a razor Keuchel hangs on. If this were the 90's and umps allowed expanding strike zones he could be a left Glavine. Unfortunately, it's not and Maddux/Glavine types might not fare as well in today's MLB. I love him but you're talking about a 25M/yr pitcher easy, for an unknown quantity in his 30's. That's a Yankees / Mets / Red Sox / Dodgers type contract to offer.
Then lets sign him now and 2-3 years into the contract when you need to pay Correa, Springer, and McCullers you can trade him.
McCann's salary is a bit complicated. The Astros pay for only $11.5mil of his contract next season. 2019 is a team option for $15mil but it can be locked in if McCann totals 1,000 PAs from 2017-18, catches 90 games in 2018 and is not on the disabled list at the end of the 2018 season.
Sorry - my bad, I misread your post. I think you're still going to run into trouble with the 12 roster spots for $70MM. Just looking at the current payroll, we have 4 guys combining for $50MM (Gurriel, McCann, Beltran, Reddick). Even our bargain-basement hope-for-the-best signing of Morton was $7MM. The Astros don't have a single free agent player at under $6MM (and that's pre-inflation), so you're basically saying the team would sign zero free agents. It would be the big-5 stars, and then 20 guys that are a combination of min salary and club controlled arbitration players. As good as our farm system, it's unlikely to be able to field a complete roster that way. I think the more likely route the Astros take is keep bringing up new guys and hope some turn into stars, which let them replace the guys we lose. And then continue signing mid-tier free agents to fill the gaps. It sucks, but it's the reality of having a core like this - it's simply unsustainable without obliterating the rest of the team. The Astros are not this ridiculously good right now because of those 5 players. They are that good because they have those 5 players at a combined $19MM, leaving them the flexibility to fill out the rest of the roster with virtually no holes.
Also worth noting that while the Astros are estimated 8th in TV revenues, only 2 of the top 15 teams don't also own a share of the TV network itself, - the Astros (thanks to the CSN-H debacle) and Tigers, and the Tigers deal expires next year, so presumably they are in line for an increase. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/estimated-tv-revenues-for-all-30-mlb-teams/ So in terms of relative salaries, top 10 may or may not be feasible, depending on how profitable these TV networks really are.
