Not anymore they're not. Hell, compared to the Vince Velazquez and Jared Cosart hype at callup, you'd think he was some castoff prospect. The prospect expectation re-alignment is quite pronounced when the team is actually winning. Everybody is guilty of falling in love with minor league guys, and hoping for the best (especially when the team is losing). Most don't make it. The Astros are well ahead of the curve in graduating players that do make it. Martes still has a long ways to go, and he may very well get there... but like VV (and Cosart) he may or may not figure it out for the Astros during their window.
LOL, that is probably because Quintana sucking doesn't fit into your preconceived idea that proven pitching is a known value and as such is ignored. People were reluctant to trade Martes with Tucker and Musgrove for Quintana. It seems you are pointing out that trade supports the position that holding too much value to prospects is bad. However, "surprisingly" it is the proven pitcher side that has lost the most expected value long term in a few months. National media has said that White Sox made a mistake by not accepting the best offer in the off-season which was likely Tucker or Martes with other prospects instead of the three you were willing to deal just a few months ago. PS by sucking I mean that he is no longer viewed as an ace (though heard he was viewed as No. 2 in the off-season) and likely closer to a No.3 now.
Agree with this. However, that is why prospects should be valued by both their negatives and positives. The Astros don't have just one prospect such that one guy failing is the end of the Astros hopes for the future. While Martes has taken a hit to his expected value, Astros Top 10 has probably increased in value relative. I don't buy the argument that prospects should be traded in unreasonable deals because the Astros are in a window for which prospects in AA or AAA will likely come up during. If you want to win now and burn down the farm, at least hope the Astros get the most talent now out of the prospects. This is my biggest pet peeve with win now crowd. Teams rebuilding need Astros help more than the Astros need a specific pitcher. There is no reason to overpay unless you think Astros are in danger of missing the playoffs. Astros will know a lot better their playoff situation when other teams are more willing to trade, but it is looking good now.
I'd say it's pretty consistent that views on Quintana have changed after just one half season... just like expectations on Martes have tempered.
Calm down. Nobody is asking to burn down the farm. Hell, after the draft today, the Astros will have a new crop of prospects to get excited about. I have a ton of faith that this farm system will not bottom out, but I also won't get attached to any decent to very good prospect either. I'll always support optimizing the MLB team, especially during contending years. While you worry about "overpaying", you have no idea what expected value the Astros will lose by trading unproven guys.
Quintana is likely only player that could have been acquired this off-season in a package with Martes. As such, I will take this as saying the people who were reluctant to trade Martes were probably right even if it is Tucker who is more favorably viewed these days. That said, I still think Martes has a chance, not a great one, to help later in the year in relief, and decent chance to help as either a reliever or a starter next year.
I don't have a great idea of a an individual prospects value as there is a lot of variance, but there are sources that are good enough that we can get in the ball park for the top 100 prospects (much more accurate, the better the prospect especially Top 25 hitters). Oddly, this is the group of prospects needed to make big trades that fans often speculate on. I am fairly confident that information available to public is accurate enough to identify the extreme overpay trades such as the Martes, Tucker, and Musgrove that you were for even though you firmly admit that you don't think fans have a good idea of the value of prospects. Oddly, Astros didn't do this trade. Heck, Astros wouldn't do Martes and Tucker without Musgrove for Quintana according to rumors. It is much easier to say a trade is an overpay or an underpay than to speculate a trade that actually could get done. Without knowing a prospect's value, you have no way of knowing how to optimize the Astros World Series Odds by trading prospects. Astros since 2000 has produced in the bottom 5 in farm systems. I believe the decades of prospects sucking has jaded the Astros fan base in general to just assume the worst in prospects not named Correa.
Prospects have a fair amount of value... especially in regards to improving the current MLB team. I do have an issue when somebody says they have "more" value, or are "over-valuing", or claim a team is "overpaying" in prospects (something that won't be evident one way or the other till said prospect either succeeds or implodes... and even then, the MLB team benefiting in the now cannot be ignored). Using rank-lists that are constructed in a likewise variable/indeterminate fashion. Mark Appel was a top 100 prospect the day he was drafted. Pretty sure the same thing will happen to some prospects today after they're drafted. Was this a for-sure trade? You're stating it as fact that not only could it have been a done deal, but it was the Astros that pulled the offer. The only rumor I heard was they offered them + more for Archer, and it was turned down... again, more speculation. My original point was that in just a few short months, Martes went from a possible ace-in-waiting... and a guy the Astros should be reluctant to inlcude in any sort of deal, especially with the minors being devoid of much plus pitching prospects... to a problem-child who's over-weight, doesn't listen to coaches, and has bad mechanics. This isn't the first prospect to pull a 180 view on this board. It happens when people tend to overvalue.
No one was claiming that Francis Martes was a cannot miss prospect. Francis Martes was a top 20-30 prospect in baseball, which is very valuable but isn't "can't miss" for a pitcher.
Martes is still a possible ace in waiting. His stuff is top shelf and his struggles are correctable.... which is a good thing. Martes' weight issue isn't a big deal for the period of time that he is a controllable asset. His weight is more of a long term issue when he is in the second half of his career. There isn't really a 180 pulled.... I think you are seeing what you want to see. Most people that follow the Astros closely still view him as the Astros first or second best prospect. Also, being over weight and being stubborn on his mechanics all were issues known for well over a year.
There was plenty of optimism prior to this season regarding him. There's not as much now, if at all. Everything is extremely tempered. If not a 180, is it a 140? Or a 120? Am I really just imaging that?
I would be disappointed that he has not taken his mechanics serious enough. However, that is something that is work but can be fixed because he has fixed it before. Also, the issue appears to be that he i is stubborn. I haven't heard anyone tell me that he doesn't love baseball or lacks competitiveness. Usually issues of being young and stubborn are fixable (usually.... for every Roger Clemens that learns his lesson, there is a Tim Redding) So while it is frustrating, because it is something he has control over, it doesn't appear to be an issue of stuff or effort or being mentally weak. There also has been some positives, his fastball has climbed another tick or two and his change up has improved. I think everyone was hoping that Martes would set AAA on fire and would force himself into the rotation. However, that hasn't happened and I don't think it was fair to just expect that. Martes still has some issues to work out. I think that fans have criticized Martes because of the reasons he has struggled this year. It is easy to point to his weight or lack of command. However I don't think that many people that have followed Martes closely feel that different about him long term. A friend of mine that works for the Astros AAA team put it to me best, he has given up on Martes playing a large role for the Astros in 2017 but still trusts him to be successful long term. With that in mind, and with how special this season has been, I am sure the Astros would entertain trading Martes for a true #1-2 pitcher under team control for 2-3 years. The problem is that there are few out there that meet those qualifications. The Astros are in a position to trade some on the back side (Martes performance/contract in 3-4 years) for something in the now and near future.
The mistake people are making here are coalescing a whole variety of viewpoints on the Quintana trade into two (Martes/Tucker were too awesome to trade vs they are prospects and Quintana was proven so make the trade). People seem to be arguing as those the "other side" is one of the those two views. The problem here is that oversimplifies reality. There were a lot of different arguments on both sides. Some people thought Martes was a can't-miss-superstar-in-waiting. Some thought their long term value outweighed the lesser control of Quintana. Some focused more on the idea that Quintana was overrated (these people seem to have been right, so far). Some thought you should be willing to overpay at certain times and go "all in" during magical years. Some were concerned about weakening the farm system. Etc. Etc.
Certainly showed why he was highly regarded. Fastball got as high as 98, and sat around 95/96 and his breaking ball generated some comically bad swings. He is still only 21 years old, and has things to work on, but the stuff is there.
If he keeps pitching like tonight some posters in this thread may have to put some of his stuff in their mouth.
We are in such a great spot right now with Martes and Fisher. Not trying to hand out props to Luhnow just yet but we saw some really promising results. Ball is in Luhnow's court as to what we will do with Fisher and Martes now.
Showed some real guts tonight. Needs to throw the changeup more once the league adjusts to him. Threw strikes all night, but biggest thing will be consistently locating the fastball. Has shown he can throw strikes, I'll take that for now.
